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#1
03-04-2010, 10:36 PM
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This is a horse that won on synthetic for Asmussen with a good figure - Asmussen's as brutal as it gets on synthetic. This is a horse that won on synthetic for Dutrow with a good figure - Dutrow's 3-for-44 with a $0.39 ROI lifetime on synthetic. I think - statistically speaking - going 1st dirt for Dutrow and having shown early speed in those prior syn races ... anything short of a 186 Beyer would have been a let down. In all seriousness ... I think Amen Hall is clearly the MLW of the Oaks. Tidal Pool has the one incredible race that came from nowhere and her trainer is surprisingly talking like Frankel would ... quoting ragozin sheet figures and skipping her next race to give her "more rest" ... at 20/1 .. she's a little interesting. Blind Luck is better than Stardom Bound .. has a good dirt race as well .. but will be severly overbet because of her decorated resume. Christine Daae still has to improve a lot to justify the hype. Forget the rest. 
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#2
03-04-2010, 11:42 PM
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Per DRF article after the Santa Ynez victory: http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do...2&subs=0&arc=1 "Michael Iavarone of IEAH Stables said the cut-back in distance for Amen Hallelujah in the Santa Ynez was the difference on Saturday. He said she may be kept in one-turn races in 2010."
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#3
03-05-2010, 12:08 AM
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It's thinking like this ^ that leads to horses like Hotep to be severly overrated ... because they're by A. P. Indy.
You're putting way too much emphasis in pedigrees with your distance projections. The horse just disputed a lively pace with Bickersons ... put her away with ease .. and drew off in the stretch to win by 6+ lengths going a mile. You're really worried that she'll struggle with an extra furlong because of Ivarone quotes, a pedigree, and the fact that she finished 3rd in her only two two-turn races ... both in Grade 1 races ... and for trainers who have horrendous synthetic stats?
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#4
03-05-2010, 12:24 AM
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#5
03-05-2010, 12:46 AM
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Yeah - there's no run-up going a 1-turn mile at GP. That's why the opening quarter always comes back impossibly slow in those races.
The pace was lively enough early - and Amen and Bickersons ran a spectacular 3rd quarter together. Both of them had a right to fold in the stretch .. Bickerson did - and Amen Hall drew off and won in final time faster than Graded Stakes older females went 30 minutes prior. I understand her pedigree is sprint speed oriented .. but I doubt an extra furlong will do her in. I'm not betting her in the Oaks futures - but I would rate her more likely than any other filly to win it.
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#6
03-08-2010, 07:03 AM
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As for the filly's chances to be a good 2-turn horse, I actually don't think the pedigree is a complete negative for 8.5+. Overall it certainly seems geared toward one-turn, but the dam was a stakes winner going 9f.
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#7
03-05-2010, 09:35 AM
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#9
03-05-2010, 02:06 PM
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TheGreek has odds up on all the individual Derby entries in Pool 2. Unlike the Derby Future Wager, these are static (you get whatever the odds are when you bet)
Horse, Odds-to-1 Aikenite 65.5 American Lion 35.5 Buddys Saint 16.15 Caracortado 20.5 Connemara 25.5 Conveyance 16.15 D'Funnybone 30.5 Dave in Dixie 22.5 Discreetly Mine 25.5 Dublin 20.5 Eskendereya 9.25 Jackson Bend 25.5 Lookin at Lucky 14.15 Nextdoorneighbor 40.5 Nobles Promise 30.5 Odysseus 35.5 Radiohead (GB) 30.5 Rule 25.5 Setsuko 52.5 Sidneys Candy 20.5 Super Saver 16.15 Tempted to Tapit 52.5 Vale of York (Ire) 30.5 TheGreek is not offering the "All Others" bet. If you think fair odds for "All Others" should be 4-1, then TheGreek's odds constitute an 11.5% takeout. Different "All Others" assumptions lead to different vig conclusions. If you think 6-1 is fair for "All Others", then the vig on TheGreek's odds is 7%. --Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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#10
03-05-2010, 03:04 PM
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Caracortado 25-1 Conveyance 30-1 D'Funnybone 40-1 Dave In Dixie 30-1 Super Saver 30-1 World Sports Exch is no longer "A" rated at SportsbookReview, however. (Some slow-pay problems.) --Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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#11
03-05-2010, 03:18 PM
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I wouldn't take 400-1 on D'Funnybone
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#12
03-05-2010, 03:39 PM
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--Dunbar
__________________
Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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#13
03-05-2010, 02:59 PM
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#15
03-05-2010, 05:45 PM
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Shes ok, her trip at Fairgrounds was horrendous but she did no running. STREAKER IS THE GOODS.
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#16
03-05-2010, 07:50 PM
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Just think if they ever breed her dam to a decent stallion.
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#17
03-05-2010, 06:10 PM
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NT
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#18
03-05-2010, 07:01 PM
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WHat about my horse?
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#19
03-05-2010, 03:26 PM
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He seems to do well enough up at WO. And, when you factor in that Contreras EASILY blew 10 wins for him over the course of the meet, you come away thinking that he does just fine over the surface.
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