3/5-7 (CD): Derby Future Wager - Pool 2
 

2010 KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER

Pool 2 (March 5-7)

1. Aikenite 50-1
2. American Lion 30-1
3. Buddy’s Saint 12-1
4. Caracortado 12-1
5. Connemara 20-1
6. Conveyance 12-1

7. D’Funnybone 20-1
8. Dave in Dixie 30-1
9. Discreetly Mine 30-1
10. Dublin 15-1
11. Eskendereya 6-1
12. Jackson Bend 20-1

13. Lookin At Lucky 6-1
14. Nextdoorneighbor 30-1
15. Noble’s Promise 30-1
16. Odysseus 50-1
17. Radiohead 20-1
18. Rule 20-1

19. Setsuko* 50-1
20. Sidney’s Candy 20-1
21. Super Saver 20-1
22. Tempted to Tapit 50-1
23. Vale of York 30-1
24. All Other 3YOs 7-2

2010 Kentucky Oaks Future Wager

Pool 1 (March 5-7)

1. All Due Respect 50-1
2. Always a Princess 20-1
3. Amen Hallelujah 6-1
4. Beautician 50-1
5. Bickersons 30-1
6. Biofuel 30-1

7. Blind Luck 5-1
8. Christine Daae 8-1
9. Cozi Rosie 30-1
10. Crisp 30-1
11. Decelerator 30-1
12. Devil May Care 30-1

13. Eve Giselle 50-1
14. Evening Jewel 12-1
15. Joanie's Catch 50-1
16. Jody Slew 15-1
17. Negligee 20-1
18. Quiet Temper 50-1

19. Sassy Image 30-1
20. She Be Wild 12-1
21. Streaker 50-1
22. Switch 12-1
23. Tidal Pool 20-1
24. All Other 3YO Fillies 4-1

I have never made a future bet in my life but, I just might dabble in the Oaks pool if these prices stay close to the same.

Probably the single most disappointing performance by any horse this year was Amen Hallelujah's first dirt race last weekend.

This is a horse that won on synthetic for Asmussen with a good figure - Asmussen's as brutal as it gets on synthetic.

This is a horse that won on synthetic for Dutrow with a good figure - Dutrow's 3-for-44 with a $0.39 ROI lifetime on synthetic.

I think - statistically speaking - going 1st dirt for Dutrow and having shown early speed in those prior syn races ... anything short of a 186 Beyer would have been a let down.

In all seriousness ... I think Amen Hall is clearly the MLW of the Oaks.

Tidal Pool has the one incredible race that came from nowhere and her trainer is surprisingly talking like Frankel would ... quoting ragozin sheet figures and skipping her next race to give her "more rest" ... at 20/1 .. she's a little interesting.

Blind Luck is better than Stardom Bound .. has a good dirt race as well .. but will be severly overbet because of her decorated resume. Christine Daae still has to improve a lot to justify the hype. Forget the rest.

I do have doubts that horses sired by Montbrook can win Grade 1 races at 9 furlongs. Her 4 wins ranged from 6 to 8 furlongs (one turn). Her two 8.5 furlongs (two turns)/Grade 1 starts resulted in third place finishes.

Per DRF article after the Santa Ynez victory:

http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do...2&subs=0&arc=1

"Michael Iavarone of IEAH Stables said the cut-back in distance for Amen Hallelujah in the Santa Ynez was the difference on Saturday. He said she may be kept in one-turn races in 2010."

It's thinking like this ^ that leads to horses like Hotep to be severly overrated ... because they're by A. P. Indy.

You're putting way too much emphasis in pedigrees with your distance projections. The horse just disputed a lively pace with Bickersons ... put her away with ease .. and drew off in the stretch to win by 6+ lengths going a mile.

You're really worried that she'll struggle with an extra furlong because of Ivarone quotes, a pedigree, and the fact that she finished 3rd in her only two two-turn races ... both in Grade 1 races ... and for trainers who have horrendous synthetic stats?

I do like your Asmussen/Dutrow synthetic winner moving to dirt angle. Wish I would have thought of that before betting on the Davona Dale while the horse was still an overlay. She won't be an overlay in the Oaks future pool. I didn't think the pace in the Davona Dale was that fast but I know the fractional times at Gulfstream can be funky.

Yeah - there's no run-up going a 1-turn mile at GP. That's why the opening quarter always comes back impossibly slow in those races.

The pace was lively enough early - and Amen and Bickersons ran a spectacular 3rd quarter together. Both of them had a right to fold in the stretch .. Bickerson did - and Amen Hall drew off and won in final time faster than Graded Stakes older females went 30 minutes prior.

I understand her pedigree is sprint speed oriented .. but I doubt an extra furlong will do her in.

I'm not betting her in the Oaks futures - but I would rate her more likely than any other filly to win it.

I might play Streaker.

Both of you have yet to hit on the horse I plan to make my coup.
Thanks!

TheGreek has odds up on all the individual Derby entries in Pool 2. Unlike the Derby Future Wager, these are static (you get whatever the odds are when you bet)

Horse, Odds-to-1
Aikenite 65.5
American Lion 35.5
Buddys Saint 16.15
Caracortado 20.5
Connemara 25.5
Conveyance 16.15
D'Funnybone 30.5
Dave in Dixie 22.5
Discreetly Mine 25.5
Dublin 20.5
Eskendereya 9.25
Jackson Bend 25.5
Lookin at Lucky 14.15
Nextdoorneighbor 40.5
Nobles Promise 30.5
Odysseus 35.5
Radiohead (GB) 30.5
Rule 25.5
Setsuko 52.5
Sidneys Candy 20.5
Super Saver 16.15
Tempted to Tapit 52.5
Vale of York (Ire) 30.5

TheGreek is not offering the "All Others" bet. If you think fair odds for "All Others" should be 4-1, then TheGreek's odds constitute an 11.5% takeout. Different "All Others" assumptions lead to different vig conclusions. If you think 6-1 is fair for "All Others", then the vig on TheGreek's odds is 7%.

--Dunbar

Biofuel or Beautician?

Several of those odds can be beaten at World Sports Exchange (wsex.com):
Caracortado 25-1
Conveyance 30-1
D'Funnybone 40-1
Dave In Dixie 30-1
Super Saver 30-1

World Sports Exch is no longer "A" rated at SportsbookReview, however. (Some slow-pay problems.)

--Dunbar

I wouldn't take 400-1 on D'Funnybone

Is this really true?

He seems to do well enough up at WO. And, when you factor in that Contreras EASILY blew 10 wins for him over the course of the meet, you come away thinking that he does just fine over the surface.

Sure you would. Or should. If you take 400-1, you can give me 200-1, which I'd gladly take. Then you can guarantee yourself a profit either way.

--Dunbar

No...those where my two key horses in the BC Juvy Fillies.

I like Devil May Care for the Oaks.

Shes ok, her trip at Fairgrounds was horrendous but she did no running.
STREAKER IS THE GOODS.

I'm throwing a few dollars her way because the FG race was too bad to believe. She ran her race before they even reached the gate.

NT

WHat about my horse?