Steve Davidowitz' Pool#1 Exacta Plays explained

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by StevenLD

He's a little early cashing that ticket on Eskendereya. Calm down.
__________________

My first ever post on this site was explanatory and did not presume cashing anything. But, I will be frank given the above first response.

Am very leary about posting anything on sites such as this one.
About 15 years ago, I posted regularly on the original 'Derby List' run out of the University of Kentucky by Steve McNatton and enjoyed the lively conversations and debates as much as anyone. That was until several "contributors" decided to use the forum to take personal and semi-personal shots for no reason other than to feed their own ego. While the above reply to my post was mild, it was nevertheless a personal dig and made me wonder whether posting here would be a big waste of time.

Beyond mild Steve, but thicker skin is required to post here in general (See Vic). I very much like the approach you take to making tickets. It is interesting...I'm simply saying I got a vibe in your post that Esken has a better opportunity in the Derby than I think he does. 9 panels at a track like GP which Esken is obviously likes is far different from 10 at CD without a dream trip like the other day....Besides, Pletcher's problems in the Derby and at CD in general in graded stakes has been well documented by DrugS and others.

[StevenLD]

Thick skin certainly is required, I am sure. And make no mistake, this is not my first ride around the park. But, when someone tells me to "calm down" that was a personal shot that had nothing to do with the content of the post. If someone disagrees with the way I layed out the tickets, by all means say so. If someone doubts the quality of Eskenderaya's performance so be it. But "calm down" does not fit that bill. Again, I spelled out my misgivings about posting here and we'll see how it all works out.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by StevenLD

Thick skin certainly is required, I am sure. And make no mistake, this is not my first ride around the park. But, when someone tells me to "calm down" that was a personal shot that had nothing to do with the content of the post. If someone disagrees with the way I layed out the tickets, by all means say so. If someone doubts the quality of Eskenderaya's performance so be it. But "calm down" does not fit that bill. Again, I spelled out my misgivings about posting here and we'll see how it all works out.

check out the "Derby will have a fast pace" thread.. or any thread involving Vic S. or politics..

I agree with you about Eskenderaya. Loved that race on Saturday.. reminded me a bit of Monarcho's FL Derby even if it was a different set up.. got that same "feeling" which of course I abandoned come Derby day in favor of a stupid Goldolphin horse City Palace or something like that...

[randallscott35]

Eskendereya 22-1 in the first pool to me is no bargain and that is even after that race the other day. You are a long way away from even being in the gate, let alone winning it. Being calm is just the way to go....Had Sweetnorthernsaint at 100-1 in the futures and AP Warrior 115-1 in the same Derby. Got back oogots....Would I book straight money at 20-1 right now on Esken. Yes.

[randallscott35]

I hasten to add that the numbers Pletcher has been getting since January are starting to get into the Goldphin last summer territory...to the point that Brown over at Thoro said he will post soon about how ridiculous they are with the numbers themselves.....Up and up? Not for me.

[StevenLD]

I didn't bet Eskendereya to win.
My layout was an EXACTA PLAY that also involved possible win by #24 (All others).

Even though you slip slide away, it was totally uncool of you to tell me to "calm down". . .As for you taking a bet on Eskendereya at 22-1 right now. I'll take $200 to win on that, if you're willing to live by your words. And the group here is witness to your offer.

He's no cinch by any means. . .If you read the bottom of my post you should see that I am not a big fan of Pletcher's handling of Derby horses. . .But 22-1 after Eskendereya already has won two route races this year including his F of Y romp, seems worth it to me. In fact, I mght even get 'excited' by the prospect of getting 22-1 from you on a horse who will be about 6-1 or lower in pool #2.

Rules: The day he falls out of the Derby picture, or loses the Derby I will send you $200. If he wins the Derby, on Monday after the race, you will send me $4400. Reply required to enforce the bet. Failure to reply will simply mean that YOU have "calmed down".

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by StevenLD

I didn't bet Eskendereya to win.
My layout was an EXACTA PLAY that also involved possible win by #24 (All others).

Even though you slip slide away, it was totally uncool of you to tell me to "calm down". . .As for you taking a bet on Eskendereya at 22-1 right now. I'll take $200 to win on that, if you're willing to live by your words. And the group here is witness to your offer.

He's no cinch by any means. . .If you read the bottom of my post you should see that I am not a big fan of Pletcher's handling of Derby horses. . .But 22-1 after Eskendereya already has won two route races this year including his F of Y romp, seems worth it to me. In fact, I mght even get 'excited' by the prospect of getting 22-1 from you on a horse who will be about 6-1 or lower in pool #2.

Rules: The day he falls out of the Derby picture, or loses the Derby I will send you $200. If he wins the Derby, on Monday after the race, you will send me $4400. Reply required to enforce the bet. Failure to reply will simply mean that YOU have "calmed down".

No thanks, Steve is not a proponent of bets on here for good reason. My stance on future bets is as follows, if it isn't over 50-1 I don't see it as a good bet at virtually any time save for the field and only at odds over 3-1....But good luck on your bets....I sincerely hope you cash though I won't be playing Pletcher on Derby Day again.

[MISTERGEE]

Originally Posted by StevenLD

I didn't bet Eskendereya to win.
My layout was an EXACTA PLAY that also involved possible win by #24 (All others).

Even though you slip slide away, it was totally uncool of you to tell me to "calm down". . .As for you taking a bet on Eskendereya at 22-1 right now. I'll take $200 to win on that, if you're willing to live by your words. And the group here is witness to your offer.

He's no cinch by any means. . .If you read the bottom of my post you should see that I am not a big fan of Pletcher's handling of Derby horses. . .But 22-1 after Eskendereya already has won two route races this year including his F of Y romp, seems worth it to me. In fact, I mght even get 'excited' by the prospect of getting 22-1 from you on a horse who will be about 6-1 or lower in pool #2.

Rules: The day he falls out of the Derby picture, or loses the Derby I will send you $200. If he wins the Derby, on Monday after the race, you will send me $4400. Reply required to enforce the bet. Failure to reply will simply mean that YOU have "calmed down".

for some reason I have enjoyed this particular post almost as much as any ever.All Our opinions are what this site is mostly built on. I appreciate you putting yout thought out there please keep it up as we all should

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by StevenLD

I didn't bet Eskendereya to win.
My layout was an EXACTA PLAY that also involved possible win by #24 (All others).

Even though you slip slide away, it was totally uncool of you to tell me to "calm down". . .As for you taking a bet on Eskendereya at 22-1 right now. I'll take $200 to win on that, if you're willing to live by your words. And the group here is witness to your offer.

He's no cinch by any means. . .If you read the bottom of my post you should see that I am not a big fan of Pletcher's handling of Derby horses. . .But 22-1 after Eskendereya already has won two route races this year including his F of Y romp, seems worth it to me. In fact, I mght even get 'excited' by the prospect of getting 22-1 from you on a horse who will be about 6-1 or lower in pool #2.

Rules: The day he falls out of the Derby picture, or loses the Derby I will send you $200. If he wins the Derby, on Monday after the race, you will send me $4400. Reply required to enforce the bet. Failure to reply will simply mean that YOU have "calmed down".

well done..

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Eskendereya 22-1 in the first pool to me is no bargain and that is even after that race the other day. You are a long way away from even being in the gate, let alone winning it. Being calm is just the way to go....Had Sweetnorthernsaint at 100-1 in the futures and AP Warrior 115-1 in the same Derby. Got back oogots....Would I book straight money at 20-1 right now on Esken. Yes.

yeah I'm a friggin idiot.. the only future I ever played was on Bellamy Road after he won the Wood cause he was like 20-1.. I was thinking "20-1 NO WAY" so I put a few bucks on him

Then my dumbass realizes that we are in America, and there are no fixed odds, and he closed out at like 3-1.