Steve Davidowitz' Pool#1 Exacta Plays explained
 

Just to be clear after two prior discussions on the air, here are my $10 and $6 Exacta probables for Pool #1.

#10 = ESKENDERAYA. . .#24 = ALL OTHERS, (a loaded group this year; that includes CARACORTADO; SIDNEY'S CANDY, LENTENOR, SETSUKO, BLIND LUCK, D'FUNNYBONE, DISCREETLY MINE; plus many others still in the game at this point).
#6 = DAVE IN DIXIE;
#7 = DROSSELMEYER;
#12 = LOOKIN AT LUCKY

$10 units:
10-6 = $1,380.40 X 5 = $6902, (A very reasonable outcome, with extraordinary potential value.)
10-7 = $463.60 X 5 = $2318 (Not likely, but not impossible)
10-24= $162.60 X 5 = $813 (Very reasonable outcome)

24-6= $172.20 X 5 =$861 (Very reasonable outcome)
24-7 = $114.80 X 5 =$574 (Not impossible)
24-10 = $120.40X 5 = $602 (A reasonable outcome)

$6 saver units.
10-12 = $354.60 X 3 = $1063.80 (The most reasonable outcome of all at this point, with OK value)
24-12 =$51.20 X 3 = $153.60 (Very reasonable outcome, with modest 200+ % total return on $72 investment),
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Total cost for all eight exacta combinations = $72.

Win or lose, a very promising Futures Book investment.

Last year: I bet #24 'All Others' for $400 and on race day, among several exotic plays, I bet $600 on Pioneerofthe Nile. . . .As you know #24 (Mine That Bird) won and paid for the Pioneerof the Nile win bet. . .'Bird' was a horse I could not have bet with your money in any win pool whatsoever.
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Bottom line after Saturday, Feb. 20 prep races:
The natural 10 furlong router ESKENDEREYA (who posted even fractions all the way through the nine furlongs Saturday and looked like a 2:01-type-1-1/4 mile horse), has all the talent he needs to win the Kentucky Derby.
But, Todd Pletcher must back off a touch while training this colt for the Florida Derby. He must not follow his historic pattern of winning prep races; he should study how Nafzger did it. TWICE. Pletcher must leave some room for improvement during the final few weeks.

He's a little early cashing that ticket on Eskendereya. Calm down.

noone uses vale of york but does use lentenor..:eek: :zz:

He's a little early cashing that ticket on Eskendereya. Calm down.
__________________

My first ever post on this site was explanatory and did not presume cashing anything. But, I will be frank given the above first response.

Am very leary about posting anything on sites such as this one.
About 15 years ago, I posted regularly on the original 'Derby List' run out of the University of Kentucky by Steve McNatton and enjoyed the lively conversations and debates as much as anyone. That was until several "contributors" decided to use the forum to take personal and semi-personal shots for no reason other than to feed their own ego. While the above reply to my post was mild, it was nevertheless a personal dig and made me wonder whether posting here would be a big waste of time.

you have to have thick skin to post on any internet site. Especially a horse racing site as its all based on opinions on races. Everyone thinks they know best.. and are only proven correct at the windows.

I didnt think the post you quoted was a personal shot.. it was a shot about your opinion. If your bet hits you get the last laugh. Everyone disagree's with each other.. human nature.

I'm sure your opinions on here will have value.. You have proven to be a solid handicapper.. but everyone gets a little heat here or there.

Beyond mild Steve, but thicker skin is required to post here in general (See Vic). I very much like the approach you take to making tickets. It is interesting...I'm simply saying I got a vibe in your post that Esken has a better opportunity in the Derby than I think he does. 9 panels at a track like GP which Esken is obviously likes is far different from 10 at CD without a dream trip like the other day....Besides, Pletcher's problems in the Derby and at CD in general in graded stakes has been well documented by DrugS and others.

Thick skin certainly is required, I am sure. And make no mistake, this is not my first ride around the park. But, when someone tells me to "calm down" that was a personal shot that had nothing to do with the content of the post. If someone disagrees with the way I layed out the tickets, by all means say so. If someone doubts the quality of Eskenderaya's performance so be it. But "calm down" does not fit that bill. Again, I spelled out my misgivings about posting here and we'll see how it all works out.

check out the "Derby will have a fast pace" thread.. or any thread involving Vic S. or politics..

I agree with you about Eskenderaya. Loved that race on Saturday.. reminded me a bit of Monarcho's FL Derby even if it was a different set up.. got that same "feeling" which of course I abandoned come Derby day in favor of a stupid Goldolphin horse City Palace or something like that...

Eskendereya 22-1 in the first pool to me is no bargain and that is even after that race the other day. You are a long way away from even being in the gate, let alone winning it. Being calm is just the way to go....Had Sweetnorthernsaint at 100-1 in the futures and AP Warrior 115-1 in the same Derby. Got back oogots....Would I book straight money at 20-1 right now on Esken. Yes.

I hasten to add that the numbers Pletcher has been getting since January are starting to get into the Goldphin last summer territory...to the point that Brown over at Thoro said he will post soon about how ridiculous they are with the numbers themselves.....Up and up? Not for me.

yeah I'm a friggin idiot.. the only future I ever played was on Bellamy Road after he won the Wood cause he was like 20-1.. I was thinking "20-1 NO WAY" so I put a few bucks on him

Then my dumbass realizes that we are in America, and there are no fixed odds, and he closed out at like 3-1. :zz:

I didn't bet Eskendereya to win.
My layout was an EXACTA PLAY that also involved possible win by #24 (All others).

Even though you slip slide away, it was totally uncool of you to tell me to "calm down". . .As for you taking a bet on Eskendereya at 22-1 right now. I'll take $200 to win on that, if you're willing to live by your words. And the group here is witness to your offer.

He's no cinch by any means. . .If you read the bottom of my post you should see that I am not a big fan of Pletcher's handling of Derby horses. . .But 22-1 after Eskendereya already has won two route races this year including his F of Y romp, seems worth it to me. In fact, I mght even get 'excited' by the prospect of getting 22-1 from you on a horse who will be about 6-1 or lower in pool #2.

Rules: The day he falls out of the Derby picture, or loses the Derby I will send you $200. If he wins the Derby, on Monday after the race, you will send me $4400. Reply required to enforce the bet. Failure to reply will simply mean that YOU have "calmed down".

No thanks, Steve is not a proponent of bets on here for good reason. My stance on future bets is as follows, if it isn't over 50-1 I don't see it as a good bet at virtually any time save for the field and only at odds over 3-1....But good luck on your bets....I sincerely hope you cash though I won't be playing Pletcher on Derby Day again.

Just to set the record straight:
Forgive me for noticing that you stated clearly that you would take a win bet on Eskendereya right now at 20-1. Also, forgive me then, for concluding that you really are not willing to do so. (private e-mail exchanges are available, I believe.)

And, as pointed out, I did not make a win bet on the horse in the Pool #1.
I layed out for claarification the Exactas I half mentioned on the air, and that #24 was an equal part of the win end of the play.

Bottom line: When I post here, I reserve the right to counter innacuracies and personally aimed shots. I can guarantee that I always will leave ample room for other opinions and will greatly respect good points of view. End of thread from my side of this.

If calm down is a personal shot on here than I am sorry. I don't think it is....You kindly offered 22-1 in your proposal which is funny since I clearly stated 20-1. You have since corrected your own error...My point, if I may from the beginning has more to do with the words you used in your initial post than anything else. You say "reasonable outcome"....I suggest betting the exacta on a race 3 months in advance, there are no reasonable outcomes at all. None. Period. You don't even know who will be in the gate, what post, what weather condition etc.......If you had said I feel these are value, we have a different argument and no calm down from me at all....But if you need a "sorry" to break the ice and a beer in Toga, than so be it.

for some reason I have enjoyed this particular post almost as much as any ever.All Our opinions are what this site is mostly built on. I appreciate you putting yout thought out there please keep it up as we all should

lol

can you say backpedal

well done..

I, for one, greatly appreciate your insight. I think you'll find this site to be one of the best for informed and intelligent opinions and discussions once you cut through the abundant sarcasm.

what do you expect? its a web site, with all kinds posting. half the time all they do is throw crap. (like monkeys) but who cares, don't let it bother you. what makes you think anythings changed in 15 years????? Hint: you can learn, "how not to handicap from half of the clowns, on here." it builds my confidence......lol