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#1
11-05-2009, 01:57 AM
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Speed favoring and a good rail are not the same thing. . . and he's not a stalker at all.
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#2
11-05-2009, 02:01 AM
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You sure like to split hairs don't you? The rail is certainly not dead and definitely won't be Saturday.
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#3
11-05-2009, 02:03 AM
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You sure like making clueless posts don't you?
You're making a case for a stone-cold closer based on a supposedly speed favoring track.
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#4
11-05-2009, 02:24 AM
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If you don't think Borel can bounce on and off the rail at will you are the clueless one, and i meant speed-favoring in a fake-dirt way. Next year I'll go head to head with you if you want, but not over 1000 days.
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#5
11-05-2009, 08:02 AM
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Steven Crist, who many think is God, actually wrote in his blog that Mine that Bird isnt without a case. Heres a bit of it. I guess it depends more on who states there case for this horse, rather than what the case is...
The more optimistic view is that he needed his last start off a 10-week layoff and is poised to improve; that his career before the Derby is irrelevant because that was the race where he blossomed and turned into a different horse when allowed to make one run from far back; and that his three strong efforts in the Triple Crown mark him as a horse of quality in a Classic where no one is that much faster. (From a speed-figure viewpoint, his Beyers of 105 and 106 in the Derby and Preakness, as a May 3-year-old, put him in the mix to run the 107-to-110 that may well be good enough to win this Classic.) He has been likened to Giacomo, another 50-1 Derby winner who never won another important race, but I think that's unfair to him: All three of his Triple Crown efforts were better than Giacomo's. Even if you dismiss the Derby itself, his second to Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness was an excellent effort, and who knows what would have happened in the Belmont if his rider hadn't moved way too soon. In a race where the three favorites (Zenyatta, Rip Van Winkle and Summer Bird) are a mare who despite all her virtues is coming off two slow victories, and two colts who have never raced on a synthetic track, it may pay to go longshot-hunting. Mine That Bird is unlikely, but not impossible.
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#6
11-05-2009, 09:10 PM
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Let me clarify. I do NOT think MTB is going to win the classic, but I would not be totally shocked if he did. He is on the rail with Bo-rail, and they will be on a mission. I do not think he will move off the rail at any time before they hit the stretch, and though the track has been accused of having a dead rail in the past it has not this meet, and it will be nowhere near dead Saturday. He will not be clodding up 4-wide in the stretch, he will already be there because it will be as slow as Richard's Kid wants it to be. It will be up to everybody else to pass those 2 and CJ.
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