Never won on the dirt theory is dead

[justindew]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Musket Man ran his usual unspectacular race. He's a very " nice " horse....but hardly of the quality one would hope for a Classic winner. He, along with Pioneer of the Nile, ran their expected races. They were good enough to lose the KY Derby by almost seven lengths. Sometimes that means you finish ninth and tenth....and once a century second and third.

I think the lesson here is that regardless of what Pioneerof The Nile did today or does in the future, you will under no circumstances ever admit that he's talented. I just don't see any scenario under which you would ever reverse course on this issue.

If he wins the Preakness or Belmont, it's because all the good horse got hurt.

If he wins the Breeders' Cup Classic, then it's because he's a synthetic horse.

If he wins multiple Grade Is this year and next, it's because of the relative mediocrity of the competition.