Who Will Be The Pace Setter In The Derby?

[Travis Stone]

I think Regal Ransom is a useful horse, and there is a very small chance he pulls a War Emblem, but ultimately, unless the track is biased, he'll have to fend-off way too many challengers in my opinion to hang around and win.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I think Regal Ransom is a useful horse, and there is a very small chance he pulls a War Emblem, but ultimately, unless the track is biased, he'll have to fend-off way too many challengers in my opinion to hang around and win.

what if its's muddy , will that help him on the front ende- ala go for gin?

[tjfla]

Regal Ransom
Atomic Rain
Join in the Dance

looks like there will be some early speed and some closers will be picking up the pieces

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I think Regal Ransom is a useful horse, and there is a very small chance he pulls a War Emblem, but ultimately, unless the track is biased, he'll have to fend-off way too many challengers in my opinion to hang around and win.

From a discussion standpoint, is it your belief his race on DWC day was solely speed bias aided?

Also where do you place Desert Party?

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by CSC

From a discussion standpoint, is it your belief his race on DWC day was solely speed bias aided?

Regal Ransom has ability. Kiaran McLaughlin said last summer he was the best 2-year-old in his barn. That said, last time out I think he was able to take advantage of circumstances which enabled him to outrun his ability. I do not think on a fair track he wins, much less with an additional furlong and likely pace competition. I could be wrong, but not wrong enough to lose long-term playing a horse like him.

Originally Posted by CSC

Also where do you place Desert Party?

I wasn't crazy about him as a 2-year-old, I thought he was over-hyped, overrated and his numbers weren't exactly big. But as a 3-year-old he's developed and his UAE Derby was exceptionally strong. I respect him, considering him a win candidate, but not the most likely winner.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Regal Ransom has ability. Kiaran McLaughlin said last summer he was the best 2-year-old in his barn. That said, last time out I think he was able to take advantage of circumstances which enabled him to outrun his ability. I do not think on a fair track he wins, much less with an additional furlong and likely pace competition. I could be wrong, but not wrong enough to lose long-term playing a horse like him.

93 beyer out of the gate, he was then thrown to the wolves in the Norfolk which came up a very tough race last year. I think he can stay a mile and quarter until he shows me otherwise. They are all in the same boat, no one knows until they try it. Atleast if you are a beyer guy you have a base to build on with that initial beyer. The main question as always with Godolphin horses is there is very little to go on from the Dubai preps.

Desert Party is a horse I would be looking at if there is sufficient pace, which makes sense if you like one, you have to like the other.

[tector]

Whether or not it makes sense to toss a horse depends on the value it offers. I already said I have no issue with using the Dubai horses at a price--my problem is making them one of the favorites and keying upon them.

That being said, the loss of Quality Road makes things easier for all the apparent second tier horses, and seems to denude the race of quality pace. DP is a horse that could benefit from that. It will also make IWR an even shorter priced favorite, which is distasteful from a betting standpoint (unless you don't like him already, of course).

So, I will take a stand against the Dubai horses on top, unless the prices on them are really more than I anticipate.

Good luck however it comes out for you.