Who Will Be The Pace Setter In The Derby?
 

With Old Fashioned out, and the slight possibility :rolleyes: of a souped up track on Derby day, who will be the pace setter for the derby? Speed may be dangerous without Old Fashioned in to keep the pace honest.

Depends who runs

Atleast you didn't say The Pamplemouuse.

QR

Balto Star

Keyed Entry with PVal aboard.

Regal Ransom if he goes.

It will be sloppy, and Mike Smith will surprisingly send Chocolate Candy to the front, from Post 15 or 16

I was looking at the possibles and he's got to be one of the few legitimate horses to benefit from OF's defection, pace makes a race and I don't see a super fast pace brewing this year. The track will be souped up and despite the funny remarks, it would be something wise to think about.

And still run 14 wide around the first turn.

If Mike Smith rode in a walkover race he would still find the 7 path.

Why the jockey change to Mike Smith for Choco Candy, anyways. I missed it.

It's so early, still, in the runup to the Derby. Perhaps there's a speedster in the Lexington who Square Eddie won't catch and they'll enter into the Derby and be cheap speed?

Then, for the hardcore believers, we still got the Withers and the recently Graded (III) Derby Trial one week before the Big Day.

Jeez you guys are fast. I'm away ten minutes and two guys beat me to the Mike Smith wide punchline.

The Lexington has to be the last call for the derby.

Pioneer of the Nile with Victor Espinosa riding. Gomez takes Dunkirk

From a visual aspect I went back and took a look at the preps last night - forgoing using charts for now. From what I saw it wouldn't surprise me if Papa Clem or even I Want Revenge are very close to the lead or maybe even find themselves on it. The Florida Derby split times were no doubt aided by the condition of the track that day, thus I downgraded QR's split times.

If they keep defecting in front of him, Join in the Dance could easily become the pacesetter.

NT

He's actually not very fast - coming out of two extremely slow paced races he will have to show a lot more early speed - which he might be capable of - to make the early lead in the Derby.

But if he does ... I think he'd be a prime candidate to finish 18th beaten 25 lengths.

He dawdled in the Blue Grass and Tampa Derby but seems to have some natural speed, which might be enough to make him the sacrificial lamb that provides Quality Road a target.

NT

If Papa Clem gets an uncontested lead, I can see him being very dangerous at probable long odds surmising Churchill will be souped up for the Derby:rolleyes: . His Robert Lewis was very, very good on a fair race track. Toss out the slop loss at the FG and you have perhaps an underrated horse. Yeah I know he didn't beat much in the ARK Derby but in a paceless race, he might War Emblem them. I'm just not sure 1 1/4 is his best distance.