Who Will Be The Pace Setter In The Derby?

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Danzig

that's my question about that race. how good was QR, and how much did he benefit from the track? but for his first around two turns, i thought he looked very good.

That's the debate, souped up tracks/flattering numbers/speed biases. We know where Pletcher stands with his frank comments after the race.

[Travis Stone]

Souped-up track does not necessarily equate to speed bias, and Gulfstream Park on Fla. Derby day was a chalk-fest, which makes the debate even more uncertain.

To me the bottom line with this Dunkirk vs. Quality Road stuff is whether or not as a handicapper you think Quality Road can do what he did in the FOY/Fla Derby at CD going 10 furlongs with some additional pace pressers to put away late in the race. Provided QR runs his race, he will be on the lead and/or close. Then you have to ask whether or not Dunkirk, or anyone else, can outrun him late to the wire.

My thoughts on that argument:

* Right now, the pace does not look too brutal. QR probably is on the lead or coasting just off it. He will likely sit his trip. I do, however, question if he might get a little bit weak late in the race. Though he finished-up in the Florida Derby, I don't think he finished-up super strong as to where no one could catch him late going another furlong.

* Dunkirk ran a big race, going wide at GP is never easy, closing at GP is never easy. But he had a fair chance to run by QR and didn't. I think, at 8-1, he's a big-time bet against when you add up all the variables against him. At this point, I Want Revenge is a more plausible horse to run down Quality Road late than Dunkirk and scary enough, they might not be that far off in price.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Souped-up track does not necessarily equate to speed bias, and Gulfstream Park on Fla. Derby day was a chalk-fest, which makes the debate even more uncertain.

To me the bottom line with this Dunkirk vs. Quality Road stuff is whether or not as a handicapper you think Quality Road can do what he did in the FOY/Fla Derby at CD going 10 furlongs with some additional pace pressers to put away late in the race. Provided QR runs his race, he will be on the lead and/or close. Then you have to ask whether or not Dunkirk, or anyone else, can outrun him late to the wire.

My thoughts on that argument:

* Right now, the pace does not look too brutal. QR probably is on the lead or coasting just off it. He will likely sit his trip. I do, however, question if he might get a little bit weak late in the race. Though he finished-up in the Florida Derby, I don't think he finished-up super strong as to where no one could catch him late going another furlong.

* Dunkirk ran a big race, going wide at GP is never easy, closing at GP is never easy. But he had a fair chance to run by QR and didn't. I think, at 8-1, he's a big-time bet against when you add up all the variables against him. At this point, I Want Revenge is a more plausible horse to run down Quality Road late than Dunkirk and scary enough, they might not be that far off in price.

i thought i read his final fractions were very good? or i might be confusing his last with i want revenge. like drugs, i think these two are the top two.

and i agree with your last paragraph.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i thought i read his final fractions were very good? or i might be confusing his last with i want revenge. like drugs, i think these two are the top two.

and i agree with your last paragraph.

You have to bold the entire sentence as it was in a different context. He didn't finish up in a way which, in my opinion, indicates he is impossible to run down when you consider the 10 furlong Derby in addition to the other factors at play.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by CSC

That's the debate, souped up tracks/flattering numbers/speed biases. We know where Pletcher stands with his frank comments after the race.

i'm not saying it was souped up, but i have seen references to a front runner bias. i don't know if that's the case or not, it always seems disgruntled bettors like to place blame on things like that.
my question is, was there really a bias? and if so, (and i think QR is the real deal btw) what does that mean about his race, and the record?

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i'm not saying it was souped up, but i have seen references to a front runner bias. i don't know if that's the case or not, it always seems disgruntled bettors like to place blame on things like that.
my question is, was there really a bias? and if so, (and i think QR is the real deal btw) what does that mean about his race, and the record?

I agree, I'm in the corner he is more than likely the real deal. My question was really aimed at trying to determine what the internal fractions of the race would have been had the track been set up to run as it was on a normal day.