Who Will Be The Pace Setter In The Derby?

[2Hot4TV]

Pioneer of the Nile with Victor Espinosa riding. Gomez takes Dunkirk

[CSC]

From a visual aspect I went back and took a look at the preps last night - forgoing using charts for now. From what I saw it wouldn't surprise me if Papa Clem or even I Want Revenge are very close to the lead or maybe even find themselves on it. The Florida Derby split times were no doubt aided by the condition of the track that day, thus I downgraded QR's split times.

[NTamm1215]

If they keep defecting in front of him, Join in the Dance could easily become the pacesetter.

NT

[The Indomitable DrugS]

He's actually not very fast - coming out of two extremely slow paced races he will have to show a lot more early speed - which he might be capable of - to make the early lead in the Derby.

But if he does ... I think he'd be a prime candidate to finish 18th beaten 25 lengths.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He's actually not very fast - coming out of two extremely slow paced races he will have to show a lot more early speed - which he might be capable of - to make the early lead in the Derby.

But if he does ... I think he'd be a prime candidate to finish 18th beaten 25 lengths.

He dawdled in the Blue Grass and Tampa Derby but seems to have some natural speed, which might be enough to make him the sacrificial lamb that provides Quality Road a target.

NT

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I'm not sure QR needs a target.

If I was JRV I wouldn't hesitate to place him on the lead if he breaks clean and no one else is being sent.

But ... JRV has never seen a wide stalking/pressing trip he didn't like. I'm sure he'd rather have him a settled 2nd - outside of the pace setter - and about a half length or a length off the lead

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'm not sure QR needs a target.

If I was JRV I wouldn't hesitate to place him on the lead if he breaks clean and no one else is being sent.

But ... JRV has never seen a wide stalking/pressing trip he didn't like. I'm sure he'd rather have him a settled 2nd - outside of the pace setter - and about a half length or a length off the lead

I'm not sure he needs a target either and I would expect JV to take the initiative as well if no one goes.

It looks as if in the effort to get Quality Road to relax, because everyone determined that he was an unrateable lunatic after losing to Theregoesjojo , he was trained to stalk in that cozy 2nd spot. The pace might not have been quick in the Fla Derby but he looked awfully comfortable in that "watchdog" spot.

NT

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He's actually not very fast - coming out of two extremely slow paced races he will have to show a lot more early speed - which he might be capable of - to make the early lead in the Derby.

But if he does ... I think he'd be a prime candidate to finish 18th beaten 25 lengths.

18th beaten just 25 lengths?

You're too kind. You must be secretly afraid Rashard Lewis reads this board.

[CSC]

If Papa Clem gets an uncontested lead, I can see him being very dangerous at probable long odds surmising Churchill will be souped up for the Derby . His Robert Lewis was very, very good on a fair race track. Toss out the slop loss at the FG and you have perhaps an underrated horse. Yeah I know he didn't beat much in the ARK Derby but in a paceless race, he might War Emblem them. I'm just not sure 1 1/4 is his best distance.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by CSC

If Papa Clem gets an uncontested lead, I can see him being very dangerous at probable long odds surmising Churchill will be souped up for the Derby . His Robert Lewis was very, very good on a fair race track. Toss out the slop loss at the FG and you have perhaps an underrated horse. Yeah I know he didn't beat much in the ARK Derby but in a paceless race, he might War Emblem them. I'm just not sure 1 1/4 is his best distance.

Why are you automatically equating a souped-up track with a speed-favoring one?

The track in 2001 was arguably as souped-up as it has been in recent memory yet the winner of the Derby came from well, well off the pace.

NT

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Papa Clem isn't naturally fast enough to make the lead without having to be too hard used.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Papa Clem isn't naturally fast enough to make the lead without having to be too hard used.

well if QR isn't 100% or doesn't go , why can't he get out on a loose lead without having to be exerted?

[CSC]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Why are you automatically equating a souped-up track with a speed-favoring one?

The track in 2001 was arguably as souped-up as it has been in recent memory yet the winner of the Derby came from well, well off the pace.

NT

Memory had them running the 1/2 in 44 and change, when M. Wind, Keats(I think) and Balto Star cannot get within a sniff of the lead, that pace was doomed to collaspe regardless of the condition of the track.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by CSC

Memory had them running the 1/2 in 44 and change, when M. Wind, Keats(I think) and Balto Star cannot get within a sniff of the lead, that pace was doomed to collaspe regardless of the condition of the track.

Right but the thing is everyone labels the CD strip on Derby day as "souped-up" yet the amount of wire-to-wire winners of the Derby is shockingly small. Thus, what I'm telling you is that to make the blanket generalization that a souped-up track is speed-favoring is incorrect.

NT