4/12 (KEE): Blue Grass (Gr. I)

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Danzig

for the money.

I figured he was in off his Tampa Bay Derby win. ???

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I figured he was in off his Tampa Bay Derby win. ???

tagg says it's close, that there are other preps, and other horses who could move in ahead of big truck.

[SniperSB23]

I don't really understand how people can be backing Pyro at anything close to even money in a full field when he has no form on synthetics, Pulpits have not done well on synthetics, Lapenta has already said that Stevil is there to get in Pyro's way as much as possible, and he doesn't need the earnings like some others so won't be fully cranked. You already have four horses with decent synthetic/turf form in Monba, Cowboy Cal, Halo Najib, and Medjool that at 15/1+ on the morning line all make for far better plays. Plus if Kentucky Bear goes off anywhere near 50/1 he's a great play. Honestly, I think considering the circumstances that Pyro is only about 50/50 to even hit the board.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I don't really understand how people can be backing Pyro at anything close to even money in a full field when he has no form on synthetics, Pulpits have not done well on synthetics, Lapenta has already said that Stevil is there to get in Pyro's way as much as possible, and he doesn't need the earnings like some others so won't be fully cranked. You already have four horses with decent synthetic/turf form in Monba, Cowboy Cal, Halo Najib, and Medjool that at 15/1+ on the morning line all make for far better plays. Plus if Kentucky Bear goes off anywhere near 50/1 he's a great play. Honestly, I think considering the circumstances that Pyro is only about 50/50 to even hit the board.

You are 100% correct about the Pulpits on synthetic. He's by AP Indy and I don't like AP Indys on the fake stuff. I'm hoping Pyro doesn't handle it; will definitely help his price for 3 weeks down the road.

I have to think Pyro has a very
good chance of winning mainly because he
is the best horse. No I would not bet it at
the prices given. And maybe it is a fairly
meaningless race for him other than
a workout. But maybe the horse does
not know this.

So they roll down the stretch, and Shaun B.
feels Pyro telling him lets go. The horse knows what
he is supposed to do. So S.B does not
ask him?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by JJP

You are 100% correct about the Pulpits on synthetic. He's by AP Indy and I don't like AP Indys on the fake stuff. I'm hoping Pyro doesn't handle it; will definitely help his price for 3 weeks down the road.

ap indy is #6 on the top synthetic sires list, so he's not a throw out. pulpit on the other hand....

by the same token, pulpit is #6 for turfers, ap indy nowhere to be found. but many think that turf = poly and vice versa, so who knows?

i don't think pyro is an automatic toss, but i wouldn't bet him either-not at the odds he'll be.

[nfliehman]

I dont understand half of what you guys talk about on here lol but Im learning as I go. Alot of helpful info though so thank you guys. Goodluck to all today. With that said I havnt heard much talk about Visionaire. Does he stand a shot to hit the board with the 12 posts he drew?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by nfliehman

I dont understand half of what you guys talk about on here lol but Im learning as I go. Alot of helpful info though so thank you guys. Goodluck to all today. With that said I havnt heard much talk about Visionaire. Does he stand a shot to hit the board with the 12 posts he drew?

Everyone but Stone Bird stands a shot to hit the board here.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by nfliehman

I dont understand half of what you guys talk about on here lol but Im learning as I go. Alot of helpful info though so thank you guys. Goodluck to all today. With that said I havnt heard much talk about Visionaire. Does he stand a shot to hit the board with the 12 posts he drew?

On that track, wide seems to be the place to be. I thought Gomez made a big mistake in the 3rd trying to dive down toward the inside.

Originally Posted by nfliehman

With that said I havnt heard much talk about Visionaire. Does he stand a shot to hit the board with the 12 posts he drew?

If you check out some other sites you
will see others do like this horse. I suspect
he will be the 3rd choice by the public and would
probably be the 2nd choice with a diff. post. It
may be advantageous is some ways, but I would prefer
a little closer in.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by nfliehman

I dont understand half of what you guys talk about on here lol but Im learning as I go. Alot of helpful info though so thank you guys. Goodluck to all today. With that said I havnt heard much talk about Visionaire. Does he stand a shot to hit the board with the 12 posts he drew?

We don't understand two-thirds of it ourselves so you are ahead of the game.
As for Visionaire, he doesn't seem like a great play to me. He is a decent horse, and the race is wide open, but I think he'll be slightly overbet and might be the type of runner that gets caught wide all the way around in this race.
I'm proabably out of my mind, but I kind of like Monba and Miner's Claim to be factors here, and am using them on a variety of tickets with Cool Coal Man and Big Truck. I'm banking on the fact that Pyro's slow works over this course means he doesn't like the surface and I am leaving him off entirely.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by Danzig

ap indy is #6 on the top synthetic sires list, so he's not a throw out. pulpit on the other hand....

by the same token, pulpit is #6 for turfers, ap indy nowhere to be found. but many think that turf = poly and vice versa, so who knows?

i don't think pyro is an automatic toss, but i wouldn't bet him either-not at the odds he'll be.

THat's on money won, correct? And how much of that was from AP Excellent? Since I started tracking, of 34 AP Indy runners making their first start on synthetic, only 3 won and that returned about $28. That's well below $1.00 returned for every $2 wagered.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by JJP

THat's on money won, correct? And how much of that was from AP Excellent? Since I started tracking, of 34 AP Indy runners making their first start on synthetic, only 3 won and that returned about $28. That's well below $1.00 returned for every $2 wagered.

Didn't an AP Indy just win the Ashland?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by JJP

THat's on money won, correct? And how much of that was from AP Excellent? Since I started tracking, of 34 AP Indy runners making their first start on synthetic, only 3 won and that returned about $28. That's well below $1.00 returned for every $2 wagered.

no, ap indys top synthetic horse is adriano--one who's probably heading to ky based on his form on anything BUT dirt.
bertrando is one showing good poly #'s, for anyone who is interested.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I don't really understand how people can be backing Pyro at anything close to even money in a full field when he has no form on synthetics, Pulpits have not done well on synthetics, Lapenta has already said that Stevil is there to get in Pyro's way as much as possible, and he doesn't need the earnings like some others so won't be fully cranked. You already have four horses with decent synthetic/turf form in Monba, Cowboy Cal, Halo Najib, and Medjool that at 15/1+ on the morning line all make for far better plays. Plus if Kentucky Bear goes off anywhere near 50/1 he's a great play. Honestly, I think considering the circumstances that Pyro is only about 50/50 to even hit the board.

I'm a FU<KING MORON. I played those four with Big Fu<king Truck instead of Kentucky Bear.