My Belmont Analysis

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by tector

I am going to play against R2R--I see her being seriously underlayed here. Pletcher has had the reverse Midas touch in the TC recently, and I'm going to roll with that until it changes.

I'd honestly be pretty surprised if she misses the tri.

In her Ky Oaks win...she ran an identical figure to that earned by Wanderin Boy (in winning a modest Graded Stake for older males) earlier on in the card...and did so with the tougher trip of the two...and was most impressive through the late stages.

Wanderin Boy is a pretty darn nice horse--and was 2nd to horses like Invasor and Bernardini in big Grade 1's last year...although, the subsequent performances by Half Ours and Perfect Drift haven't exactly flattered that race.

I'm always concerned about big stretch-outs with Pletcher runners...but, being an A. P. Indy out of stamina laden female family....she really projects for some improvement.

I've entertained the idea of backwheeling her in an exacta---with Curlin and HS on top (Curlin for at twice as much) --- thinking that R2R will mop up the loser of that match-up through the stretch, but not be good enough to win. However, there's not much advantage there either.

Like you say though---not a great betting race.