My Belmont Analysis

[justindew]

I wrote this for Metro Philadelphia newspaper....


--------------------------------------------------------

1. Imawildandcrazyguy- It’s a common misconception that a come-from-the-clouds running style, like he has, is beneficial here in the longest Triple Crown race. He’s just not in the same class as many of these.

2. Tiago- While he probably has a quicker turn of foot than his full-brother, Derby winner Giacomo, he is going to have to run down some very talented horses late if he is to find the winner’s circle. Although that’s unlikely to happen, a 3rd place effort is not out of the question.

3. Curlin- I was wrong when I said he wouldn’t fire in the Derby. I was wrong when I said he needed a rest before the Preakness. Clearly, this is a very talented racehorse. If he doesn’t regress, he wins. And I’m tired of predicting that he will regress. But at odds-on, it’s your call, and a tough way to make a buck.

4. CP West- This was my Preakness long shot pick, and he looked like a winner with about ½ mile to go. Then he stopped running. If he takes another step forward, a top-3 finish is within reach. It will have to be a big step, although you do get Nick Zito and Edgar Prado in your corner. Remember Birdstone?

5. Slew’s Tizzy- This guy is about 3 lengths better than a stablemate of Curlin’s named Forty Grams. That makes Slew’s Tizzy about 12 lengths worse than Curlin.

6. Hard Spun- I doubt he would have won, but an ill-timed move in the Preakness certainly did not help his chances, and he was only beaten by 4 lengths. That being said, I think others in here are more likely to take the step forward needed to beat Curlin.

7. Rags to Riches- I would love nothing more than to see this chick crush the boys. Her half-brother, Jazil, won this race last year. I like her chances, but at 3-1, I don’t see a whole lot of value. Still, in my opinion, she’s the second most likely winner if Curlin fires. And if he doesn’t…...

I have yet to cash a ticket in the Triple Crown this year, as my top picks, Nobiz Like Shobiz in the Derby and Street Sense in the Preakness, finished 10th and 2nd, respectively. In an effort to turn a profit for the series, I’m going to hope (not predict) against hope that Curlin ran his best race in the Preakness, and I will leave him off my exacta tickets. Same with Hard Spun. While the odds of both failing to crack the top two spots in the race are not great, a case can be made for others being better on this day. Hey, it’s all about value, right?

1. Rags To Riches
2. CP West
3. Tiago