6/9 (BEL): 150th Belmont Stakes Day

[taxicab]

@ Rollo:
Really ?
All of those horses you don't like on Saturday should of stayed home ?
Because of the morning line ?
That's right...….a horse lined over 5-1 has never,ever won any race in history.
And why run at Belmont when you could run at Santa Anita ?
Really ?

So remind me...….how have Calif. horses done on the Eastern ship the last 5 years or so ?

Dark Vader: Yeah...…..I'm sure Peter Eurton is shaking in his boots at that sterling 0 for 8 record in graded stakes company the rest of the Easy Goer field can boast of(and yes,I'm aware the EG isn't a graded stake...….just pointing out there are no world beaters in the race).
Moonshine Memories: Coolmore must be devastated that their 650k Malibu Moon filly was 2 for 3 in Grade 1's last year...…...and went off favored in the BC Juvy Filly...…….yeah,she's a real slug alright.
And do you really think they care if they won a 75k prep off of a 6 month layoff ?
Perhaps they had the Grade 1 Acorn in mind ?
And remind me...……..how many bad races has Spectator run ?
Yeah.....I think Peter Miller knows a little bit more about how his Breeders Cup winner is doing than you do.
BTW......400k turf sprints don't come around every day.
And remind me...….how's Peter Miller done shipping his top sprinters back East recently ?
Beautiful Shot...….Like I said,Beautiful Shot just ran 2nd beaten 3/4's in the Gr. 3 Laz Barrera to Saturdays morning line favorite...…….at the Woody Stephens 7 furlong distance...…..so 3/4's of a length to the race chalk means the horse has no chance ?
I think the barns success with Texas Red shows it knows where to run its stock at a number...…..and Exaggerator on the East Coast ship speaks well of the barns ability to travel.
Ransom The Moon ran 7 times in Canada,his shortest race was 1 1/16...….I didn't say he was sprinting in Canada.
Sired by Malibu Moon out of a Red Ransom mare,a one turn mile should be in his realm...…..trainer D'Amato seems to think so.
The Bolt...….Runner up in the 2yo Eclipse voting last year,why not run him in the Met with a weight break.
He's the 4-1 second choice on the line...….and you think the Woody Stephens is where he belongs ?
I'll tell ya Rollo.....every single horse you don't like can get beaten Saturday.....I understand that.
But they have all earned their right to be there.
Good luck wagering Saturday Rollo,hope you knock em dead.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by taxicab

@ Rollo:
Really ?
All of those horses you don't like on Saturday should of stayed home ?
Because of the morning line ?
That's right...….a horse lined over 5-1 has never,ever won any race in history.

The morning line was a bit of hyperbole and certainly not the crux of my argument

And why run at Belmont when you could run at Santa Anita ?
Really ?

You said they would be staying in the barn if they didn't run at Belmont, I was simply pointing out there were races at home that fit better.

So remind me...….how have Calif. horses done on the Eastern ship the last 5 years or so ?

Why go back 5 years to survey the records of different trainers than the ones we are dealing with here. Again, Eurton, D'Amato, and Callaghan have not done that well in the past year.

And remind me...……..how many bad races has Spectator run ?

A better question is how many fast races has Spectator run?

I'll tell ya Rollo.....every single horse you don't like can get beaten Saturday.....I understand that.
But they have all earned their right to be there.

It's not about the "right" to be there. It's all about current form. Personally, I'm not seeing it.

[taxicab]

@ Rollo:

Races @ SA:
Affirmed 100k/Easy Goer 150k.
Summertime Oaks 200k/Acorn 700k.
Silent Lure 75k/Jaipur 400k.
Affirmed 100k/Woody Stephens 400k(at a much better distance for Beautiful Shot).
Bolt d'Oro: Met Mile 1.2 mil...…..nothing in So Cal for him.
San Carlos 250k/Met Mile 1.2 mil.
The connections know their stock inside & out......….they chose the right races.

Eurton/D'Amato/Callaghan are outstanding trainers.
Stats with shippers:
Eurton/D'Amato 16%.
Callaghan 22%.
They've won Breeders Cup races,they've won Gr.1's.
All three have won in NY before.

Spectator has run races fast enough to win a Gr.2/place in a Gr.1.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by taxicab

@ Rollo:

Races @ SA:
Affirmed 100k/Easy Goer 150k.
Summertime Oaks 200k/Acorn 700k.
Silent Lure 75k/Jaipur 400k.
Affirmed 100k/Woody Stephens 400k(at a much better distance for Beautiful Shot).
Bolt d'Oro: Met Mile 1.2 mil...…..nothing in So Cal for him.
San Carlos 250k/Met Mile 1.2 mil.
The connections know their stock inside & out......….they chose the right races.

My main argument is that the majority of the CA horses (minus Baffert) on the Saturday card are not "ready for prime time", so while I can understand the attraction of purses 3-4 times those of the SA races, at the same time the purpose is to actually get decent chunks of the purse so you need a horse that will be competitive on the win end.

The Siren Lure would have been a great return spot for those turf sprinters returning from Dubai considering the notable defeats of other horses returning from there. But I agree with you that there aren't many high dollar races for that division, so I shouldn't lump Miller into the category of the others. I just think there's a significant chance the horse(s) don't show up.

Eurton/D'Amato/Callaghan are outstanding trainers.
Stats with shippers:
Eurton/D'Amato 16%.
Callaghan 22%.
They've won Breeders Cup races,they've won Gr.1's.
All three have won in NY before.

Not sure what the source is of those numbers, but D'Amato has only run a maiden breaker in the Wood at long odds (that got drowned) this year. Eurton ran a nice maiden debut winner in a graded stakes at Keeneland, got beat, then pulled up in her next race. That sort of over-aggressive management fries horses (see Pavel's lackluster career to this point) where they either disappear, fail to progress, or get dumped. He also had Core Beliefs fail as the favorite in the Peter Pan.

Meanwhile, Callaghan has run Runaway, Encumbered, American Gal, and a few more in big stakes and watched them run off the board. American Gal did win her second start on the road and was an established horse, but some of the others were curious to say the least. I guess I should be happy he didn't start Moonshine Memories in the Ashland off the bench.

Spectator has run races fast enough to win a Gr.2/place in a Gr.1.

Speed figure wise, there has been only slight progression from 2 to 3. Several in the Acorn have speed figures well ahead of her. She is also suspect at distances beyond 6.5 furlongs, not having come closer than 3 or 4 lengths in her two tries.

[taxicab]

I used Brisnet trainer stats,it was a large sample size so I think they went back a few years.
Simon Callaghan had two heavily bet stakes flops the last two days...……..I'll be curious how Moonshine Memories does Saturday.
For some reason I have it in my head Monomoy Girl is going to miss in the Acorn...….betting against Brad Cox is usually asking for trouble,dude seems to never fail.

[RolloTomasi]

per twitter:

morning line favorite Kanthaka scratched out of the Woody Stephens.