5/7 (CD): 142nd Kentucky Derby (G1); 6 U/C Graded Stakes

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by senator L

I'd say best value right now is Outwork at 28-1

I agree.

Others that look generous compared to my own line (in parenthesis) are

Destin 20-1 (13-1)
Whitmore 33-1 (20-1)
Shagaf 72-1 (45-1)
Majesto 62-1 (40-1)
Danzing Candy 30-1 (18-1)

I obviously don't think Shagaf and Majesto have much of a chance, but a better than 60-1 chance, IMO.

I hate Destin's long layoff and lack of experience. Without the long layoff I'd have him at 7-1. Still, 20-1 seems generous.

[cakes44]

Sweet ride on Airoforce!

[jms62]

Who was the last horse to win the Derby without a 9 furlong prep and how often has it happened?

[cakes44]

Navarro's got the good stuff today.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I agree. [about Outwork being an overlay]

Others that look generous compared to my own line (in parenthesis) are

Destin 20-1 (13-1)
Whitmore 33-1 (20-1)
Shagaf 72-1 (45-1)
Majesto 62-1 (40-1)
Danzing Candy 30-1 (18-1)

I obviously don't think Shagaf and Majesto have much of a chance, but a better than 60-1 chance, IMO.

I hate Destin's long layoff and lack of experience. Without the long layoff I'd have him at 7-1. Still, 20-1 seems generous.

Impressive performance by the group I though were overlays:
Aside from Destin's respectable 6th, they finished 14th, 15th, 18th, 19th, 20th. I could have had the tuchas trifecta.

[OldDog]