5/7 (CD): 142nd Kentucky Derby (G1); 6 U/C Graded Stakes

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by Revidere

He is my neighbor in Ankeny. You would never know he is the richest man in Iowa. Class act.

You're the richest man in Iowa with your family and the ability to capture hoss on film like few other.

[LITF]

If the Oaks taught me anything today it's to look for a brilliant horse coming off a subpar performance. If I were an astute player I'd play Mohaymen hard tomorrow. An undefeated horse coming off an uncharacteristically poor performance in suffering his first career defeat. Sounds a lot like Cathryn Sophia to me, only you should get twice the price and then some. Too bad I'm not very smart and the 14 won't be on any of my tickets tomorrow.

Good luck to all!

[Dunbar]

Here's a link to somewhat "live" odds:

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/...erby-live-odds

The last update now showing is for 11:55pm last night, with $1,081,035 in the win pool. Oddly, this morning I saw an update around 9am with 1,089,??? in the win pool. For some reason, they are right now showing the earlier totals.

Nyquist is showing at 2-1, but it's really 2.4-1 if you run the numbers.

[senator L]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Here's a link to somewhat "live" odds:

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/...erby-live-odds

The last update now showing is for 11:55pm last night, with $1,081,035 in the win pool. Oddly, this morning I saw an update around 9am with 1,089,??? in the win pool. For some reason, they are right now showing the earlier totals.

Nyquist is showing at 2-1, but it's really 2.4-1 if you run the numbers.

I'd say best value right now is Outwork at 28-1

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by senator L

I'd say best value right now is Outwork at 28-1

I agree.

Others that look generous compared to my own line (in parenthesis) are

Destin 20-1 (13-1)
Whitmore 33-1 (20-1)
Shagaf 72-1 (45-1)
Majesto 62-1 (40-1)
Danzing Candy 30-1 (18-1)

I obviously don't think Shagaf and Majesto have much of a chance, but a better than 60-1 chance, IMO.

I hate Destin's long layoff and lack of experience. Without the long layoff I'd have him at 7-1. Still, 20-1 seems generous.

[cakes44]

Sweet ride on Airoforce!

[jms62]

Who was the last horse to win the Derby without a 9 furlong prep and how often has it happened?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I agree. [about Outwork being an overlay]

Others that look generous compared to my own line (in parenthesis) are

Destin 20-1 (13-1)
Whitmore 33-1 (20-1)
Shagaf 72-1 (45-1)
Majesto 62-1 (40-1)
Danzing Candy 30-1 (18-1)

I obviously don't think Shagaf and Majesto have much of a chance, but a better than 60-1 chance, IMO.

I hate Destin's long layoff and lack of experience. Without the long layoff I'd have him at 7-1. Still, 20-1 seems generous.

Impressive performance by the group I though were overlays:
Aside from Destin's respectable 6th, they finished 14th, 15th, 18th, 19th, 20th. I could have had the tuchas trifecta.

[OldDog]

[Revidere]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

You're the richest man in Iowa with your family and the ability to capture hoss on film like few other.

Thank you!