Derby-Oaks Weekend Beyers

[CSC]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That isn't even remotely a " problem " with figures. Biases, should they actually exist ( ya know, unlike yesterday at Churchill ), aren't quantifiable.

Accurate final time speed figures do exactly what they purport to do. It is only misinformed people ( many of them, seemingly, internet posters ) that don't understand them and somehow blame them for things they simply are not.

I don't know if I am one of those misinformed people but as I said in another post I don't use beyers exclusively so maybe I don't get them, for instance I do doubt their accuracy on synthetic tracks for the most when a final number is only used, when I do see a number that I deem as not being correct or distorted, as a bettor I will take it on as most handicappers do. If the derby beyer stands I will surely take on Super Saver if the chance presents itself in The Preakness, and perhaps Ice Box who's closing finish may be construed as actually closing.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by CSC

and perhaps Ice Box who's closing finish may be construed as actually closing.

What did you construe it as, knitting?

I need to know your thoughts as I'm waiting with baited breath for your Preakness picks. I mean, after all, this is your handiwork:

Originally Posted by CSC

You guys know I called Summer Bird months in advance of his Belmont win, one of my last posts here before my hiatus was calling the Interactif in the Hall of Fame at Saratoga and I also just called the Derby Trial and yes it sucks being good.

NT

[Indian Charlie]

Yeah, well I used Super Saver from the start in the tvg fantasy contest.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

What did you construe it as, knitting?

I need to know your thoughts as I'm waiting with baited breath for your Preakness picks. I mean, after all, this is your handiwork:



NT

I sense the sarcasm, truthfully I was not as impressed as most, I think it(his closing 2nd) had more to do with tiring horses Ie. NP and POP. Let's face it they were all crawing home in the derby, you don't need me to tell you this, it could have been the track, or perhaps this was a very mediocre field.

As for my Preak pick, who's in it? However if you ask who had one of the better 3 yr old performances at CD this meet, it wasn't even in the Derby. Hurricane Ike looked as good as any yesterday if he can go the Preakness distance.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

The other thing I love is the consistent insinuation by the flat earth figure hating crew that anyone who dares glance at any kind of speed number totally thinks every number is perfect and that figs are the only handicapping factor that needs to be considered. As if the rest of us who aren't deathly afraid of numbers don't also use workouts (really?), company lines, trainer stats, pedigrees, etc.

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

There's a reason, JOEY, why when they discuss the Tour de France, they never speak about how FAST a particular stage was (with the exception of the time trials). This is because they understand that there are many factors that go into WHY a particular stage was run in a particular time. And, that noting only the final time is to GROSSLY under model it.

Originally Posted by CSC

I don't know if I am one of those misinformed people but as I said in another post I don't use beyers exclusively so maybe I don't get them, for instance I do doubt their accuracy on synthetic tracks for the most when a final number is only used, when I do see a number that I deem as not being correct or distorted, as a bettor I will take it on as most handicappers do. If the derby beyer stands I will surely take on Super Saver if the chance presents itself in The Preakness, and perhaps Ice Box who's closing finish may be construed as actually closing.

Thanks for proving my point fellas.

[CSC]

Still I don't get how the derby was assigned a 104, that's fine I will gladly stick to not knowing and use this as leverage when people do blindly bet to this relatively "high" number.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by CSC

Still I don't get how the derby was assigned a 104, that's fine I will gladly stick to not knowing and use this as leverage when people do blindly bet to this relatively "high" number.

Derby horses are overbet regardless of whether the number is 120 or 90.

[parsixfarms]

What was the figure for Pickapocket's allowance win (8.5F in 1:43.2)?

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

What was the figure for Pickapocket's allowance win (8.5F in 1:43.2)?

99

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

99

If that's the case, and assuming the Derby figure is relative to the other two-turn races on the card, if the Derby figure were "off," it's probably only at best a length or two off.

[brianwspencer]

Ok, can someone who routinely uses speed figures, doesn't bash them, and has a somewhat cursory to average understanding of how they are made get an explanation of how on Earth that Derby receives a 104?

Because it's not about bashing Beyer, it's not about bashing the number, it's that the number seems way out of line...and I don't understand how it was made on this particular day or the reasoning behind it.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Ok, can someone who routinely uses speed figures, doesn't bash them, and has a somewhat cursory to average understanding of how they are made get an explanation of how on Earth that Derby receives a 104?

Because it's not about bashing Beyer, it's not about bashing the number, it's that the number seems way out of line...and I don't understand how it was made on this particular day or the reasoning behind it.

Maybe Steve can get Andy on the show this week to explain his reasoning.