Derby-Oaks Weekend Beyers

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by CSC

Another problem with final time numbers is they don't take into account any biases a horse may be running against. Atta Boy Roy was the only horse to wire a field all day on a visably tiring and closer's friendly track, he received a 101 for his effort but it may as well been higher than the number he received, which was still 3 lower than the pedrestrian derby.

That isn't even remotely a " problem " with figures. Biases, should they actually exist ( ya know, unlike yesterday at Churchill ), aren't quantifiable.

Accurate final time speed figures do exactly what they purport to do. It is only misinformed people ( many of them, seemingly, internet posters ) that don't understand them and somehow blame them for things they simply are not.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That isn't even remotely a " problem " with figures. Biases, should they actually exist ( ya know, unlike yesterday at Churchill ), aren't quantifiable.

Accurate final time speed figures do exactly what they purport to do. It is only misinformed people ( many of them, seemingly, internet posters ) that don't understand them and somehow blame them for things they simply are not.

There's a problem with the figures when they are made tragically poorly- like yesterday at Churchill. I don't know how anyone at DRF could defend making the Derby 3 points higher than the CDH when the raw figure was 12 points slower. It's a cop-out to defend a Derby which, on time, was flat out slow.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

There's a problem with the figures when they are made tragically poorly- like yesterday at Churchill. I don't know how anyone at DRF could defend making the Derby 3 points higher than the CDH when the raw figure was 12 points slower. It's a cop-out to defend a Derby which, on time, was flat out slow.

I'm wondering what that has to do with what I posted.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm wondering what that has to do with what I posted.

You said accurate speed figures do exactly what they purport to do (I agree with you on this)- I was pointing out that these were not accurate relative to what Beyer had striven to achieve when he created them.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

You said accurate speed figures do exactly what they purport to do (I agree with you on this)- I was pointing out that these were not accurate relative to what Beyer had striven to achieve when he created them.

I don't get it.

I was referring to the notion of any relevence of track bias in speed figures.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't get it.

I was referring to the notion of any relevence of track bias in speed figures.

Fair enough.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That isn't even remotely a " problem " with figures. Biases, should they actually exist ( ya know, unlike yesterday at Churchill ), aren't quantifiable.

Accurate final time speed figures do exactly what they purport to do. It is only misinformed people ( many of them, seemingly, internet posters ) that don't understand them and somehow blame them for things they simply are not.

I don't know if I am one of those misinformed people but as I said in another post I don't use beyers exclusively so maybe I don't get them, for instance I do doubt their accuracy on synthetic tracks for the most when a final number is only used, when I do see a number that I deem as not being correct or distorted, as a bettor I will take it on as most handicappers do. If the derby beyer stands I will surely take on Super Saver if the chance presents itself in The Preakness, and perhaps Ice Box who's closing finish may be construed as actually closing.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by CSC

and perhaps Ice Box who's closing finish may be construed as actually closing.

What did you construe it as, knitting?

I need to know your thoughts as I'm waiting with baited breath for your Preakness picks. I mean, after all, this is your handiwork:

Originally Posted by CSC

You guys know I called Summer Bird months in advance of his Belmont win, one of my last posts here before my hiatus was calling the Interactif in the Hall of Fame at Saratoga and I also just called the Derby Trial and yes it sucks being good.

NT

[Indian Charlie]

Yeah, well I used Super Saver from the start in the tvg fantasy contest.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

What did you construe it as, knitting?

I need to know your thoughts as I'm waiting with baited breath for your Preakness picks. I mean, after all, this is your handiwork:



NT

I sense the sarcasm, truthfully I was not as impressed as most, I think it(his closing 2nd) had more to do with tiring horses Ie. NP and POP. Let's face it they were all crawing home in the derby, you don't need me to tell you this, it could have been the track, or perhaps this was a very mediocre field.

As for my Preak pick, who's in it? However if you ask who had one of the better 3 yr old performances at CD this meet, it wasn't even in the Derby. Hurricane Ike looked as good as any yesterday if he can go the Preakness distance.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

The other thing I love is the consistent insinuation by the flat earth figure hating crew that anyone who dares glance at any kind of speed number totally thinks every number is perfect and that figs are the only handicapping factor that needs to be considered. As if the rest of us who aren't deathly afraid of numbers don't also use workouts (really?), company lines, trainer stats, pedigrees, etc.

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

There's a reason, JOEY, why when they discuss the Tour de France, they never speak about how FAST a particular stage was (with the exception of the time trials). This is because they understand that there are many factors that go into WHY a particular stage was run in a particular time. And, that noting only the final time is to GROSSLY under model it.

Originally Posted by CSC

I don't know if I am one of those misinformed people but as I said in another post I don't use beyers exclusively so maybe I don't get them, for instance I do doubt their accuracy on synthetic tracks for the most when a final number is only used, when I do see a number that I deem as not being correct or distorted, as a bettor I will take it on as most handicappers do. If the derby beyer stands I will surely take on Super Saver if the chance presents itself in The Preakness, and perhaps Ice Box who's closing finish may be construed as actually closing.

Thanks for proving my point fellas.

[CSC]

Still I don't get how the derby was assigned a 104, that's fine I will gladly stick to not knowing and use this as leverage when people do blindly bet to this relatively "high" number.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by CSC

Still I don't get how the derby was assigned a 104, that's fine I will gladly stick to not knowing and use this as leverage when people do blindly bet to this relatively "high" number.

Derby horses are overbet regardless of whether the number is 120 or 90.

[parsixfarms]

What was the figure for Pickapocket's allowance win (8.5F in 1:43.2)?

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

What was the figure for Pickapocket's allowance win (8.5F in 1:43.2)?

99

[brianwspencer]

Ok, can someone who routinely uses speed figures, doesn't bash them, and has a somewhat cursory to average understanding of how they are made get an explanation of how on Earth that Derby receives a 104?

Because it's not about bashing Beyer, it's not about bashing the number, it's that the number seems way out of line...and I don't understand how it was made on this particular day or the reasoning behind it.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Ok, can someone who routinely uses speed figures, doesn't bash them, and has a somewhat cursory to average understanding of how they are made get an explanation of how on Earth that Derby receives a 104?

Because it's not about bashing Beyer, it's not about bashing the number, it's that the number seems way out of line...and I don't understand how it was made on this particular day or the reasoning behind it.

Maybe Steve can get Andy on the show this week to explain his reasoning.

[blackthroatedwind]

I will never understand why people that claim to neither understand speed figures nor use them also feel a need to also criticize them.

I don't understand Latin....but I have no problem with it. I guess it's just me.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I will never understand why people that claim to neither understand speed figures nor use them also feel a need to also criticize them.

I don't understand Latin....but I have no problem with it. I guess it's just me.

annia


means stupid in Latin

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

annia


means stupid in Latin

I disagree.