3-year-old Recap - Updated Derby Chances

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Nevertheless, she's still probably Todd Pletcher's best shot to get back-to-back Derby victories.

You really think R Heat Lightening has a better chance of winning than Uncle Mo?

Duca was the only other horse in the Wood Memorial 2nd off the layoff - and he had the exact same running style as Uncle Mo ...




You can say - well, he only won a maiden last out. But the horse who was 2nd in that maiden race came back and closed against a moderate pace and actually ran a pretty nice figure when 2nd in the Ill Derby next time out.

A horse like Arthur's Tale was making his 7th start at 8f or more - in a span of less than the last 7 months. He already had 3 two-turn route races under him this year... and he's been working steadily between races. He had a monumental 'fitness' and 'foundation' edge on Uncle Mo.

Toby's Corner also had 3 routes under his belt this year - unlike Uncle Mo - he had a 6f workout under his belt.... and I've liked Toby's Corner enough to keep posting odds for him to win the Derby every week - even though he had almost zero Graded earnings this week and only had one race to try and get it.

I guess people want to work with the angle 'Uncle Mo's just not the same horse since his secret surgery after the Breeders Cup' .... perhaps - but it's hardly conclusive at this point.