3-year-old Recap - Updated Derby Chances - Page 2

miraja2 · #21 04-11-2011, 08:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You're dealing with lightly raced 3yo's - at a time when trainers don't want to run their good horses. Hell, they don't even want to put the good 3yo's through halfway brisk workouts.

That's why I think it is infinitely easier to play the lower levels of this sport nowadays than to play most graded stakes races. At the $20k claimer level the horses actually run, so there's some info to go on.
Has Mo regressed significantly and permanently from his 2yo form or is he just not in shape because of his schedule? Who the hell knows? And that's the case with a lot of "G1-caliber" horses these days. When they only run five times a year, it makes it awfully hard to figure out what one sub-par performance really means.

Travis Stone · #22 04-11-2011, 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

In light of yesterday's developments and Pletcher's comments after the Florida Derby, should odds be posted on R Heat Lightning (not that I would fancy her chances)?

She's not nominated, I don't believe. But I have thought the same thing. If I owned her, I would strongly consider it.

Indian Charlie · #23 04-11-2011, 11:59 AM

She would get slaughtered

Travis Stone · #24 04-11-2011, 12:28 PM

She would have something that no one else (save for a big Arkansas Derby figure) would have - a triple digit last out Beyer.

cal828 · #25 04-11-2011, 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

She would have something that no one else (save for a big Arkansas Derby figure) would have - a triple digit last out Beyer.

I think Soldat has one.

Travis Stone · #26 04-11-2011, 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cal828

I think Soldat has one.

You're right, he does, but I was referring to "last out."

My point for what was once called (by some) "one of the best crops" ever, is now a pile of "huh?" I don't think anyone should be scared to enter.

jms62 · #27 04-11-2011, 12:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

You're right, he does, but I was referring to "last out."

My point for what was once called (by some) "one of the best crops" ever, is now a pile of "huh?" I don't think anyone should be scared to enter.

Really? Really?!?!? Can you please post a link to someone calling this one of the best crops? I would love to see their other opinions.

Travis Stone · #28 04-11-2011, 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62

Really? Really?!?!? Can you please post a link to someone calling this one of the best crops? I would love to see their other opinions.

I'm not going to call people out for having a bad opinion, because I've had many myself. But I did see it written (or a flavor of it) in more than one place, which is fine, because things change constantly in horse racing...

My point is that as of right now, this is not a tremendous group of horses, and no one should be hesitant to take a shot if they are in shouting distance in terms of ability.

Indian Charlie · #29 04-11-2011, 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

She would have something that no one else (save for a big Arkansas Derby figure) would have - a triple digit last out Beyer.

I guess Maclean's Music should go straight to the Derby.

Travis Stone · #30 04-11-2011, 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I guess Maclean's Music should go straight to the Derby.

I'm not making the inductive argument that any and all 3-year-olds with a triple digit Beyer should go to the Derby. I'm saying because the crop is so level in terms of ability, with the the bar set very low, anyone within a sniff should give it a shot, or at least consider it.

horseofcourse · #31 04-11-2011, 03:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I guess Maclean's Music should go straight to the Derby.

Without question. Unfortunately he's got that zero graded earnings issue holding him back.

RolloTomasi · #32 04-11-2011, 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I'm not making the inductive argument that any and all 3-year-olds with a triple digit Beyer should go to the Derby. I'm saying because the crop is so level in terms of ability, with the the bar set very low, anyone within a sniff should give it a shot, or at least consider it.

Whether or not anyone agrees with R Heat Lightning running in the Derby, fact of the matter is that it is very possible. Devil May Care, from the same stable, ran in the Derby last year as a late addition following the implosion of Eskendereya. Arguably, she had worse credentials than R Heat Lightning going in, and ended up running a decent race.

Indian Charlie · #33 04-11-2011, 04:48 PM

I repeat.

She would get slaughtered in the Derby.

tiggerv · #34 04-11-2011, 04:52 PM

Fat Chart for the Wood.

RolloTomasi · #35 04-11-2011, 04:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I repeat.

She would get slaughtered in the Derby.

Nevertheless, she's still probably Todd Pletcher's best shot to get back-to-back Derby victories.

Indian Charlie · #36 04-11-2011, 05:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Nevertheless, she's still probably Todd Pletcher's best shot to get back-to-back Derby victories.

Hardly.

Even if UM was done, I'd take Brethren or even that Joe Vann over her.

hockey2315 · #37 04-11-2011, 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Hardly.

Even if UM was done, I'd take Brethren or even that Joe Vann over her.

Joe Vann isn't TC nominated and wouldn't get in on earnings. Brethren is worthless. But still, R Heat Lightning can't win the Derby.

The Indomitable DrugS · #38 04-11-2011, 09:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I'm not making the inductive argument that any and all 3-year-olds with a triple digit Beyer should go to the Derby.

I sure wouldn't be affraid to go to the Preakness next with Bind.

The Indomitable DrugS · #39 04-11-2011, 10:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Nevertheless, she's still probably Todd Pletcher's best shot to get back-to-back Derby victories.

You really think R Heat Lightening has a better chance of winning than Uncle Mo?

Duca was the only other horse in the Wood Memorial 2nd off the layoff - and he had the exact same running style as Uncle Mo ...

You can say - well, he only won a maiden last out. But the horse who was 2nd in that maiden race came back and closed against a moderate pace and actually ran a pretty nice figure when 2nd in the Ill Derby next time out.

A horse like Arthur's Tale was making his 7th start at 8f or more - in a span of less than the last 7 months. He already had 3 two-turn route races under him this year... and he's been working steadily between races. He had a monumental 'fitness' and 'foundation' edge on Uncle Mo.

Toby's Corner also had 3 routes under his belt this year - unlike Uncle Mo - he had a 6f workout under his belt.... and I've liked Toby's Corner enough to keep posting odds for him to win the Derby every week - even though he had almost zero Graded earnings this week and only had one race to try and get it.

I guess people want to work with the angle 'Uncle Mo's just not the same horse since his secret surgery after the Breeders Cup' .... perhaps - but it's hardly conclusive at this point.

RolloTomasi · #40 04-11-2011, 11:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You really think R Heat Lightening has a better chance of winning than Uncle Mo?

No. I was joking. The only race I've seen of R Heat Lightning's was the Davona Dale.

Quote:

I guess people want to work with the angle 'Uncle Mo's just not the same horse since his secret surgery after the Breeders Cup' .... perhaps - but it's hardly conclusive at this point.

Not sure of any of that, but I certainly wouldn't be working the angle that Todd Pletcher was racing Uncle Mo into condition, either.

By the way, the most productive race on the Derby trail (albeit with the advantage of position on the calendar) was the Count Fleet. Should be a Grade 3 next year.