Arkansas Derby ends Derby Trail season
By kasept. Filed in Uncategorized |
KEENELAND
POST-SCRATCHES
5th: 85th Ben Ali (G3), 4+. 9f (P3, DD)
Based on workouts after the Donn fiasco, Protonico is 100%. McLaughlin firing everywhere and Farhaan will impose if ready with what was delivered at SAR. Irish You Well is the value horse in the mix..
Most Likely: #5 Protonico 9-5 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #3 Farhaan 5-2 6th
Best Value: #6 Irish You Well 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Golden Ticket 3-1 5th
6th: MSW, 3+, 6f ($1 P6, P3, DD)
Never like types that near-miss, but Big Red Charlie’s pair easily best with these..
Most Likely: #3 Big Red Charlie 2-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Taketothestreets 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Shathoor 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Battle Midway 15-1 WON ($21.20)
7th: 19th Giant’s Causeway, F&M-4+, 5.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)
Turf status makes for tricky read but as with last week’s Shakertown, the major players here are back from ’14 edition in consistent Ageless and streaking Free as a Bird.
Most Likely: #11 Free as a Bird 8-5 4th
Next Best: #4 Ageless 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Henny Jenny 30-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Jewel of a Cat 6-1 9th
8th: MSW, 3yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD)
This is placed in a very tricky spot on the card with cast that pits firsters with potential against handful of experienced types that have been falling short. Siding mostly with those that have run, though Neil Howard’s Seagrass is half to Grasshopper by Quality Road and may be ready for at least an ITM run upon debut..
Best Value: #11 Bon Heir 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Flying Jibe 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Amazing Party 6-1 9th
Super Add: #1 Seagrass 10-1 6th; #3 Super Humor 9-2 8th
9th: 27th Jenny Wiley (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)
Supremely well-match group of fillies and mares with defending Hard Not to Like (5-1) well down in the pecking order. Obviously Ball Dancing and Filimbi appear likeliest, but Eden Prairie (10-1) is very dangerous up front in a largely paceless group, while Personal Diary (10-1) and Emotional Kitten (8-1) SCR both feel prepared for plus efforts..
Best Value: #8 Eden Prairie 10-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Ball Dancing 2-1 WON ($5.20)
Exotics Use: #1 Personal Diary 10-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Filimbi 8-5 2nd
10th: 34th Lexington (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (DD)
Interesting set of next level 3yo’s signed on here with ‘wild ride’ MDN winner Donworth diving into deep end. Divining Rod has been nibbling against good horses and may be 100% now after Delacour dealt with hoof issue through winter..
Most Likely: #7 Donworth 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Divining Rod 3-1 WON ($7.80)
Best Value: #3 Quimet 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Tiznow R J 5-1 6th
11th: ALW, 3yo, 8.5f-T (Super Hi-5)
Tons of colts with upside here in the hands of some of the top turf conditioners in the sport. Note that it’s Opening Day at Woodbine, yet Steve Bahen is here for the one mount on Chiefswood’s Nipigon..
Best Value: #5 Baldonnel 6-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Araqeel 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Nipigon 5-1 9th
Super Add: #8 Danish Dynaformer 4-1 WON ($9.00)
Hi-5 Play: #4 Indebted 8-1 3rd
P5 Grid:
7: 11 (A), 4 (B), 2-3-5-7 (C)
8: 10-11 (A), 7 (B), 1-2-3-4 (C)
9: 8 (A), 4 (B), 1-3-5 (C)
10: 1-7 (A), 3-4-6 (B), 2-5 (C)
11: 5-7 (A), 6 (B), 4-8-14 (C)
P4 Grid:
8: 10-11 (A), 7 (B), 1-2-3-4 (C)
9: 8 (A), 4 (B), 1-3-5 (C)
10: 1-7 (A), 2-3-4-6 (B), 5 (C)
11: 5-7 (A), 6-8 (B), 4-14 (C)
OAKLAWN
POST-SCRATCHES
7th: 69th Oaklawn H. (G2), 4+, 9f (P4, P3)
Plenty of obvious players but be cognizant of Street Strategy (20-1), a pricey $425k 2yo-in-training buy, who is 3rd/layoff for capable Randy Morse and could sit perfectly behind the speed under Borel..
Most Likely: #1 Race Day 5-2 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #10 Street Strategy 20-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Carve 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Hard Aces 6-1 7th
8th: 13th Instant Racing, 3yo-F, 6f (P3)
Most Likely: #3 Indian Brava 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #5 Promise Me Silver 6-5 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #1 Calypso Run 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Indian Annie 6-1 4th
9th: MSW, 3yo, 8,5f (P4, P3)
Most Likely: #9 West Village 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #8 Hottap 9-2 WON ($6.80)
Best Value: #11 Dr Anderson 12-1 –
Exotics Use: #2 Lawless West 8-1 –
10th: 18th Northern Spur, 3yo, 1m (P3)
Best Value: #8 Wolf Man Rocket 4-1 WON ($5.20)
Next Best: #3 Hillbilly Royalty 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Poseidon’s Way 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #6 Holiday Man 7-2 6th
P4 Grid:
7: 1 (A), 4-10 (B), 3-5-6-9 (C)
8: 3 (A), 5 (B), 1-7 (C)
9: 8-9 (A), 2-11-12 (B), – (C)
10: 3-8 (A), 6-7 (B), 4 (C)
$0.50 Pick-4 (1,6/5,6/8/8) Paid $54.10
11th: 79th Arkansas Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (DD)
Appears that anything other than a clear cut American Pharoah win will be harshly judged in the Court of Derby Opinion. Assuming a Pharoah win, virtually all the other 7 here can line up somewhere in the pay slots. Win the Space is absolutely possible for not just an exacta finish, but a Derby start as a Maiden. Papaprrodromou’s Pulpit colt faced Wolf Man Rocket (Northern Spur) and Fame and Power (Lexington) in last and had worst of it on several fronts. Bred for the stretch out and expect Desormeaux to ride for a late-arriving placement..
Most Likely: #6 American Pharoah 1-2 WON ($2.20)
Best Value: #8 Win the Space 30-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Far Right 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Bridget’s Big Luvy 20-1 8th
12th: S/ALW, 4+, 14f
Most Likely: #9 Balega 3-1 8th
Best Value: #3 Perfectly at Home 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Barat 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Flyin Trey 10-1 9th
P4 Grid:
9: 8-9 (A), 2-11-12 (B), – (C)
10: 3-8 (A), 6-7 (B), 4 (C)
11: 6 (A), – (B), 3-4-5-7-8 (C)
12: 3-8-9 (A), 2-4-7 (B), 1-5-6 (C)
$0.50 Pick-4 (8/8/6/2) Paid $90.15