BC leadup gets serious with BEL/SA Super Saturday
By kasept. Filed in Uncategorized |
BELMONT PARK
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P5, P3, DD)
Deep group of pricey babies. Don’t need to embellish merits of favored Albertrani/McLaughlin and Pletcher/Guillot entries, but note 12-1 Midhmaar (Tapit) a $600k Shadwell buy out of Fawkes MGSW middle distance sprint machine Take D’ Tour. King Rontos keeps running into monsters. Easy Comparison was game in defeat in second start/first dirt try at SAR. Dannie’s Deceiver is by Quality Road who is establishing himself quickly as a top ‘first out’ sire. Cannizzo lures Rosario and popped with 31-1 FTS in ’13 that boosts his ROI..
Most Likely: #2e Godolphin-Darley ownership entry 4-1 2nd/6th
Best Value: #7 Midhmaar 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #1e Southern Equine ownership entry 3-1 WON ($13.20)/9th
Exotics Use: #5 Dannie’s Deceiver 15-1 7th
2nd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #5 Noble Cornerstone 3-1 WON ($6.50)
Next Best: #8 Round 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #10 Inmyfathersimage 30-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Chapman 5-1 2nd
3rd: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #7 Congrats to Ken 7-2 7th
Best Value: #9 Dispersion 8-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Gustnado 4-1 WON ($9.20)
Exotics Use: #2 Epsilon 4-1 5th
Super Add: #1 St. Louie 15-1 8th
4th: 34th Kelso (G2), 3+, 1m (P3, DD)
With the stakes starting here, good spot to take note that with the Thursday rain, there’s a chance the main track remains very tight. Friday saw a steady parade of on/near lead winners including 12-1 Roman Approval. It’s going to be a sunny, warm day, so there’s the opportunity for the track to be ideally groomed, but anything that favors speed can impact this event and and the Vosburgh particularly. Should River Rocks and Bradester fail to engage each other, either can wire..
Most Likely: #7 Itsmyluckyday 4-5 3rd
Next Best:#4 River Rocks 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Scarly Charly 30-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Bradester 3-1 7th
5th: 76th Beldame (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (P3, DD)
Rosario seems ideally suited for 50 Shades. Sky Beauty win by Toasting lifts an eyebrow for big opportunity here at square price. Understand betting against underlay Stopchargingmaria but she is perfect at the trip, albeit around 2 turn versions of 9f. Stanwyck’s typical effort gains share..
Most Likely: #5 Fiftyshadesofhay 9-2 5th
Best Value: #2 Toasting 8-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Stopchargingmaria 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Stanwyck 3-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Belle Gallantey 7-2 WON ($11.40)
6th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f-T (P6, P3, DD)
Perfect spot to take a shot in a contentious affair that comes ahead of the all stakes P4. Ragtime is out of modest Phipps product Castanet (El Prado), a sister of top turf performer Dancing Forever (Rahy). Shug tried to get the Henny Hughes son on turf earlier this summer and at 20-1, trust that there’s method to the Hall of Famer’s madness..
Best Value: #6 RAGTIME 20-1 8th
Next Best: #12 Upgrade 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Great Attack 7-2 WON ($15.20)
Super Add: #7 Cajun Breeze 20-1 4th
7th: 37th Flower Bowl (G1), F&M-3+, 10f-IT (P4, P3, DD)
As discussed with Nick Tammaro, this is a mix-and-match group that have been largely in and out through the summer. Chad Brown’s troika a good place to start with Stephanie’s Kitten, Whatsdachances and maddening Alterite all demanding attention/inclusion. Ballston Spa exacta (Abaco/Strathnaver) figure prominently. Pace appears slightly tepid which puts this completely in the hands of the silkwearers..
Best Value: #6 Whatsdachances 8-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Abaco 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Stephanie’s Kitten 5-2 WON ($4.40)
Super Add: #7 Alterite 8-1 7th
8th: 75th Vosburgh (G1), 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)
Yikes.. Layers of speed signed on for this standard and note the three quarters trip with 7 of the 9 dropping back or stretching out. Palace and Salutos Amigos sit behind the speeds and get first run. Happy My Way being cleverly engineered by MTH-based Orseno with eye towards Santa Anita and visiting :58.2 bullet over the surface shouldn’t go unnoticed..
Most Likely: #6 Happy My Way 3-1 6th
Best Value: #4 Salutos Amigos 6-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Palace 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Private Zone 7-2 WON ($13.80)
9th: 38th Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1), 3+, 12f-T (P3, DD)
Very similar to the Flower Bowl with a set of familiar lawn boys and a calm pace scenario. Spin the wheel..
Most Likely: #3 Imagining 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Main Sequence 2-1 WON ($5.90)
Best Value: #4 Hangover Kid 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Twilight Eclipse 4-1 2nd
10th: 96th Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), 3+, 10f (DD)
As fun a JCGC as you’ll see these days. The big Eastern 3yo’s are here as well as the hard-knocking handicap veterans. Tonalist takes off the hood and relaxes behind the pace battle between Moreno and Big Cazanova..
Most Likely: #8 Tonalist 4-1 WON ($8.10)
Best Value: #1 Micromanage 20-1 10th
Next Best: #3 Wicked Strong 3-1 DNF-Lost rider
Exotics Use: #9 Stephanoatsee 20-1 4th
11th: OC/N1X, 3+, 12f-T
Deliberate John Toscano not only adds Lasix to Smokey Brown, but reaches for Jose Ortiz with whom he’s amassed a gaudy J-T record (6/13 at BEL for $5.65; 7/28 overall ’13-14 for $2.80)..
Most Likely: #4 Grand Rapport 7-2 WON ($10.80)
Best Value: #11 Smokey Brown 20-1 11th
Next Best: #6 Capitan Futuro 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Innovation Economy 10-1 7th
Super Add: #1 Sandy in the Sun 20-1 12th
SANTA ANITA
POST-SCRATCHES
4th: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (P3, DD)
Quite a group of pedigrees on view here including Punctuate (Distorted Humor), 1st Peppers Pride foal to hit the track (first born full brother Funny Pepper yet to run) and Fueled by Bourbon (Stroll), half brother of Clearly Now..
Most Likely: #11 Madiba 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Smuggler Union 6-1 5th
Best Value: #10 Bronze Star 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Kantune 4-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Fame and Power 3-1 6th
5th: 3rd Zenyatta (G1), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #4 Beholder 1-2 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #1 Tiz Midnight 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Iotapa 2-1 3rd
6th: 3rd FrontRunner (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD)
Before settling on a pecking order, note that Skyway is the ONLY horse in the field that has run on dirt (Bashford Manor). No telling whom exactly leaps forward on the new SA main but Daddy D T (6-1) deserves look off big works post stakes win..
Most Likely: #7 American Pharoah 8-5 WON ($3.00)
Next Best: #4 Daddy D T 6-1 5th
Best Value: #3 Sky Preacher 10-1 8th
Exotics Use: #10 Calculator 8-1 2nd
7th: 3rd Rodeo Drive (G1), F&M-3+, 10f-T (P3, DD)
Ridiculous group with at least 8 of the 14 looking capable of the ‘W’..
Best Value: #8 Parranda 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Irish Mission 6-1 3rd-DH
Exotics Use: #7 Emollient 6-1 WON ($8.40)
Super Add: #11 Stormy Lucy Late-Gate SCR
8th: 3rd Awesome Again (G1), 3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD)
Baffert looking to probe depth of undefeated Shared Belief with Fed Biz who will seriously test the 3-5 favorite..
Most Likely: #4 Shared Belief 3-5 WON ($2.40)
Best Value: #1 Fed Biz 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Majestic Harbor 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Imperative 6-1 5th
9th: 3rd Unzip Me, 3yo-F, 6.5f-T (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #9 Gender Agenda 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Kool Kat 15-1 4th
Next Best: #4 On the Backstreets 9-5 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Alexis Tangier 5-2 WON ($14.20)
10th: 3rd Chandelier (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (DD)
Most Likely: #2 Conquest Eclipse 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Danette 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Angela Renee 3-1 WON ($7.20)
Exotics Use: #10 Dad’s Princess 8-1 10th
Super Add: #1 Sunday Sonnet 6-1 5th
11th: MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (Super Hi-5)
Most Likely: #7 Papacoolpapacool 9-5 WON ($4.00)
Next Best: #2 Nakamoto 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Kenji’s Thunder 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Dream It Do It 6-1 9th
Hi-5 Play: #11 Increase 12-1 5th