Bombs ignite SA 6/4; Weather OK for Big Cap Card
By kasept. Filed in Uncategorized |
Santa Anita P6 double carryover pushed to near $1,800,000 Friday, and two major price horses narrowed winning plays down to just two of deserved $552,545. Ron Ellis started the upsets sending out Victor Espinoza on the Broads’ Tiz a Knight at 29-1 to trip up the 3yo MSW in the 5th. In the nightcap, $106.80 FTS Dubai XYZ stunned for lesser known connections producing the half million dollar sextet and a $22,106 P4. That’s why we play!
Panicky concerns over Big Cap Day at Santa Anita look to have been unfounded, and a great afternoon of racing is in the offing at Arcadia. Aqueduct’s Gothem Day card is very playable, and Gulfstream’s all turf P4 could be a producer. Oaklawn has the Azeri and Razorback as part of its’ P4, and the Magna 5 is very challenging with another confusing Laurel stake as the predictably tough sequence starter. Should be a great day…
AQUEDUCT
PRE-SCRATCHES
2nd: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #5 Game Token 7-2
Next Best: #7 Tocco d’Oro 4-1
Best Value: #1 Keltic Fighter 9-2
Super Add: #10 S. Z. Madison 8-1
3rd: 109th Cappy Capossela, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)
2-5 is way over the top on Westover Wildcat who is OK, but hardly guaranteed upon his return to the Northeast..
Upsetter: #5 Liston 7-2
Most Likely: #1 Westover Wildcat 2-5
Best Value: #2 Strapping Groom 12-1
Super Add: #4 Golden Ghost 8-1
4th: 117th Toboggan (G3), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #1 Custom for Carlos 9-5
Next Best: 2 Elusive Warning 5-2
Best Value: #3 Driven by Success 6-1
5th: OC/N2X, 4+, 1m-70y (P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #2 The Roundhouse 8-5
Best Value: #4 Precursor 10-1
Next Best: #5 Goldsville 3-1
Super Add: #7 Sawtooth Mountain 15-1
<$75 P4 Play:
2: 1-5-7-10
3: 1-2-5
4: 1-2-3
5: 2-4
4x3x3x2 = $72
8th: NY-MSW, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)
#13 (AE) Justtakemypicture 5-2 a use should he draw in..
Most Likely: #1 Major Star 3-1
Next Best: #6 Power Punch 4-1
Best Value: #9 Tapitdar 10-1
Super Add: #4 Felice Di Notte 15-1
9th: CLM, 4+, 6f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #2 (POE) Temecula Creek 2-1
Best Value: #6 Benlayla 10-1
Next Best: #9 Hedge Fund 5-1
Super Add: #4 Wollaston Bay 10-1
10th: 58th Gotham (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Super)
One decision to make here is how much you like or dislike the Whirlaway horses..
Best Value: #3 Nacho Friend (8-1): Clever Breen excels with comebackers, stretchouts..
Most Likely: #4 Awesome Act (7-2): Being asked a lot; OK in Cup, bred for this..
Next Best: #2 Yawanna Twist 5-1
Super Add: #8 Turf Melody 8-1
11th: NY-MSW, 3yo, 1m (Super)
Most Likely: #3 Tapped Out Bruno 3-1
Next Best: #2 Spicy Steve 5-2
Best Value: #7 Whateverittakes 10-1
Super Add: #1 (POE) Leatherhead 8-1
<$75 P4 Play:
8: 1-6-9
9: 2-4-6-9
10: 2-3-4
11: 2-3
3x4x3x2 = $72
GULFSTREAM PARK
PRE-SCRATCHES
7th: 23rd Herecomesthebride (G3), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)
Fun betting race with some attractive prices getting on the grass for the first time (5/9) and Upperline making second lawn start..
Best Value: #5 Profiteroles 15-1
Most Likely: #6 Upperline 6-1
Next Best: #9 Dynazapper 6-1
Super Add: #7 Apple Charlotte 10-1
8th: OC/N2X, 4+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #3 Uncle Indy 3-1
Next Best: #5 Custer 5-1
Best Value: #2 Mean Sax 12-1
Super Add: #8 Brother Nick 15-1
9th: 24th Palm Beach (G3), 3yo, 9f-T (DD, Super)
Most Likely: #6 Bim Bam 5-2
Best Value: #3 Our Champion 15-1
Next Best: #2 Dean’s Kitten 5-1
Super Add: #9 Cat Park 8-1
10th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f-T (Super)
Most Likely: #9 Alcomatch 3-1
Best Value: #1 Smart Sky 15-1
Next Best: #10 Beau Choix 4-1
Super Add: #4 Hurricane Day 6-1
<$75 P4 Play:
7: 3-4-5-6-7-9
8: 2-3-5
9: 2-3-6-9
10: 1-9
6x3x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
OAKLAWN PARK
PRE-SCRATCHES
7th: 51st Razorback (G#), 4+, 8.5f (P4, Super)
Most Likely: #8 Gone Astray 5-2
Next Best: #4 Win Willy 7-2
Best Value: #1 Prom Shoes 8-1
Super Add: #3 Jonesboro 5-1
8th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P3)
Most Likely: #2 Fayoum 3-1
Best Value: #1 Fifth Avenue South 12-1
Next Best: #8 Pulpit’s Secret 5-2
Exotics Use: #7 Bird Empire 7-2
9th: 24th Azeri (G3), F&M-4+, 8.5f (DD, Super)
Best Value: #6 Just Jenda 5-1
Most Likely: #4 War Echo 3-1
Next Best: #1 Freedom Star 6-1
Super Add: #3 Spirit Seeker 8-1
10th: CLM, 4+, 1m (Super)
Most Likely: #6 Alpha Capo 3-1
Next Best: #3 Gold Niner 5-2
Best Value: #5 Pacific Star 12-1
Super Add: #1 Lumberjack Cat 9-2
<$75 P4 Play:
7: 1-4-8
8: 1-2-8
9: 1-3-4-6
10: 3-6
3x3x4x2 = $72
SANTA ANITA
PRE-SCRATCHES
5th: OC/N1X, 4+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #1 Patriotic Soldier 6-1
Best Value: #10 Fantasy Free 6-1
Next Best: #4 E Z’s Gentleman 7-2
Super Add: #6 Bad Boy 4-1
6th: 9th Pasadena, 3yo, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #3 Macias 9-5
Best Value: #8 Lucky Rave 12-1
Next Best: #4 Alpharabi 3-1
Super Add: #2 Get A Grip 8-1
7th: 10th Sham (G3), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #9 Nextdoorneighbor 3-1
Best Value: #6 Kettle River 6-1
Next Best: #2 The Program 5-1
Super Add: #10 Alphie’s Bet 6-1
8th: 71st Santa Anita Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #5 Blind Luck 1-2
Best Value: #4 All Due Respect 8-1
Next Best: #7 Cozi Rosie 5-1
Super Add: #2 Crisp 6-1
9th: 0th Kilroe Mile H. (G1), 4+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #5 Ever a Friend 3-1
Best Value: #3 Awesome Gem 10-1
Next Best: #9 Fluke 7-2
Super Add: #4 Acclamation 20-1
10th: 73rd Santa Anita H. (G1), 4+, 10f (DD, Super)
Most Likely: #13 Misremembered 8-1
Best Value: #5 Eagle Poise 20-1
Next Best: #14 Jeranimo 8-1
Super Add: #1 Pick Six 20-1
11th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 6f (Super, Super High 5)
Oy vey.. What a way to end a day like this!
Most Likely: #10 Hovig 5-2
Best Value: #13 Objectified 20-1
Next Best: #1 Crash Landing 4-1
Super Add: #14 The Final Roar 9-2
High 5 Play: #5 Colorful Dancer 20-1
<$75 P4 Play:
8: 4-5-7
9: 3-4-5-9
10: 5-13-14
11: 10-13
3x4x3x2 = $72
MAGNA 5
PRE-SCRATCHES
LEG A-LRL 10th: Wide Country, 3yo-F, 7f (Super)
Most Likely: #2 Gator Prowl 3-1
Best Value: #1 You Need Me 12-1
Next Best: #5 Judge Sonya 5-2
Super Add: #3 That’s How I Roll 6-1
LEG B-SA 5th: OC/N1X, 4+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #1 Patriotic Soldier 6-1
Best Value: #10 Fantasy Free 6-1
Next Best: #4 E Z’s Gentleman 7-2
Super Add: #6 Bad Boy 4-1
LEG C-GP 9th: 24th Palm Beach (G3), 3yo, 9f-T (DD, Super)
Most Likely: #6 Bim Bam 5-2
Best Value: #3 Our Champion 15-1
Next Best: #2 Dean’s Kitten 5-1
Super Add: #9 Cat Park 8-1
LEG D-GG 5th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #10 Highway Bandit 7-2
Best Value: #9 Nisus 9-2
Next Best: #7 Czechmyhart 5-2
Super Add: #8 Gear Shift 6-1
LEG E-GP 10th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f-T (Super)
Most Likely: #9 Alcomatch 3-1
Best Value: #1 Smart Sky 15-1
Next Best: #10 Beau Choix 4-1
Super Add: #4 Hurricane Day 6-1
<$150 or <$75 Magna 5 Play:
A: 1-2-5 (3-7-8)
B: 1-4-6-10
C: 2-3-6
D: 9-10
E: 9
3x4x3x2x1 = $72
6x4x3x2x1 = $144
Good luck!
Steve