Hope everyone got a piece of what turned out to be one of the best Breeders’ Cup days I’ve ever had. Early double in non-Cup events gave great start to the day leading to opening P3 ($421). That was followed by weekend-making P4 of $3,450 ($1). Overlays on Tapitsfly, (whom our clocker guests raved about), and She Be Wild were instrumental in the success over the first half of the card. $641 for the 2nd-4th P3 was a huge plus, and came in advance of another $1,500+ in troikas. ($950/3rd-5th; $423/4th-6th; $176/5th-7th).

Streak was stopped in the Distaff, a race in which I was honestly confused, but it hardly dented the solid negotiation of the day’s offerings. Day Two looks and feels ‘tougher’ than today’s card, so I feel fortunate to have built an early cushion. Hope you did great Friday and enjoyed the week’s coverage.

BREEDERS’ CUP – OAK TREE AT SANTA ANITA

PRE-SCRATCHES

1st: 2nd Damascus, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 M One Rifle 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #8 Dave’s Pacemaker 15-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Coronet of a Baron 6-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Viscount 8-1 5th

2nd: 3rd Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G2), 2yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Draw severely compromises standout Pletcher colt Interactif, but he may be good enough anyway under trip-making Kent D.. Suggest using any price horse you like even remotely in exotics as there are several here that have bottom wrung potential at insane prices including Zip Quick and Gallant Gent..

Most Likely: #11 Interactif 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Viscount Nelson 6-1 8th
Best Value: #1 Zip Quick 50-1 11th
Exotics Use: #5 Gallant Gent 30-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Bridgetown 8-1 2nd

3rd: 2nd Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, 3+, 6.5f-DHT (P3, DD, Super)

Probably doubtful that Mig can get the same dream trip down the hill again, but at 20-1 or so, Desert Code is in as good a position as any to capitalize on opportunity.. Maragh, who does everything right and is simply America’s best young rider, cleverly arrived in CA early and took two mounts down the hill course to be ready for Diamondrella’s try..

Best Value: #13 Desert Code 20-1 13th
Most Likely: #9 Diamondrella 4-1 11th
Next Best: #4 Lord Shanakill 8-1 12th
Exotics Use: #1 Noble Court 8-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Gotta Have Her 15-1 2nd

4th: 26th Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1), 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Capt. Candyman Can 15-1 8th
Most Likely: #1 Zensational 7-5 5th
Next Best: #5 Gayego 5-2 4th
Super Add: #3 Fatal Bullet 9-2 6th

5th: 26th Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Will take same tact here as in gal edition, favoring KEE exiting runners including bonus mutuel Piscatelli who gets Desormeaux and comfy ground-saving launch spot. In terms of first time synthetic horses, suggest D’ Funnybone be protected in multi-race wagers while plus Tale of the Cat progeny Aspire is too big a price to not use within the race..

Most Likely: #9 Aikenite 8-1 5th
Next Best: #13 Lookin at Lucky 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Piscitelli 50-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Noble’s Promise 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 Aspire 20-1 12th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-11
3: 1-9-13
4: 1-8
5: 2-4-5-8-9-13

2x3x2x6 = $72

6th: 26th Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Zacinto 8-1 11th
Best Value: #10 Justenuffhumor 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #11 Goldikova 8-5 WON
Super Add: #7 Ferneley 20-1 7th

7th: 3rd Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1), 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Mastercraftsman 6-5 4th
Best Value: #8 Mr. Sidney 12-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Midshipman 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Furthest Land 20-1 WON

8th: 26th Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1), 3+, 12f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Conduit 7-5 WON
Next Best: #7 Spanish Moon 5-2 4th
Best Value: #1 Telling 20-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Precious Passion 4-1 2nd

9th: 26th Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), 3+, 10f (DD, Super, Super High 5)

Fascinating edition of this race as turf/synth runners are clearly the best approach with top three below proven over the surface and sure to get their runs in. Exception in my mind may be Quality Road whom I’ll guess takes to the surface being by Raven’s Pass sire Elusive Quality out of a Strawberry Road mare. Supremely fast, classy and sure to be overlaid, Pletcher trainee will have first run on the leaders..

Most Likely: #8 Einstein 12-1 11th
Best Value: #6 Richard’s Kid 12-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Zenyatta 5-2 WON
Super Add: #12 GATE SCR

<$100 P4 Play:

6: 7-8-10-11
7: 1
8: 1-2-6-7-8
9: 4-6-7-8-12

4x1x5x5 = $100

10th: 40th Oak Tree Derby (G2), 3yo, 9f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #9 Battle of Hastings 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Rendezvous 6-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Massone 4-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Meteore 8-1 5th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-3-8
8: 1-2-6-7
9: 4-6-8
10: 7-9

3x4x3x2 = $72