6/9: 150th Belmont Stakes Day
By kasept. Filed in 2018 |Tags: Belmont Park
BELMONT PARK
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: NY-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD)
Best Value: #8 Queen of Castle 12-1 8th
Next Best: #6 War Canoe 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 La Moneda 3-1 WON ($5.30)
Super Add: #9 Table for Six 8-1 5th
2nd: 7th Easy Goer, 3yo, 9f (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #2 Mask 2-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Rugbyman 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Breaking the Rules 4-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Dark Vader 9-2 3rd
3rd: 50th Ogden Phipps (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P3, DD)
Best Value: #2 Ivy Bell 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Abel Tasman 8-5 WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #7 Unchained Melody 12-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Pacific Wind 7-2 4th
4th: 87th Acorn (G1), 3yo, 1m (P3, DD)
Top 3 can win and there’s a real chance Monomoy Girl and Talk Veuve hook up immediately to provide 2nd/break Caldonia Road with a perfect behind-the-duel stalking trip..
Best Value: #5 Caldonia Road 3-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Monomoy Girl 4-5 WON ($3.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Talk Veuve to Me 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Gio Game 15-1 3rd
5th: 130th Brooklyn (G2), 4+, 12f (P3, DD)
War Story has now made $2.5MM and can add another $240k here with anything close to his A-/B+ efforts. Note that Outplay (8-1) is lone speed and needs to be used as a C on outlier chance he stays the 12f unperturbed..
Most Likely: #9 War Story 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Hoppertunity 5-2 WON ($9.10)
Exotics Use: #3 Hard Study 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #4 Take Your Guns 6-1 4th
P5 Grid:
1: 6-8 (A), 1-9 (B), 7 (C)
2: 2 (A), – (B), 3-6-7 (C)
3: 2-6-7 (A), – (B), 1-4-8 (C)
4: 3-5-7 (A), – (B), 2 (C)
5: 2-9 (A), 3-4 (B), 6-8 (C)
Simple (A+B): 4x1x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x1x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
P4 Grid:
2: 2-3 (A), – (B), 4-6-7 (C)
3: 2-6-7 (A), 1-4-8 (B), – (C)
4: 3-5-7 (A), – (B), 2 (C)
5: 2-9 (A), 3-4 (B), 6-8 (C)
Simple (A+B): 2x6x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
6th: 35th Jaipur (G2), 4+, 6f-T (P6, P3, DD)
Wild set here with half of the 8 led by pacer/closer pairings from both Clement/Generazio (Pure Sensation/’17 winner Disco Partner) and Miller/Rockingham (Stormy Liberal/Conquest Tsunami). The 2 players beyond that heavy-handed quartet are speed of the speed (?) Pocket Change (10-1) and Pletcher’s (where-did-he-come-from?) Blind Ambition (5-1). Longest prices Frisky Magician (30-1) and Holding Gold (12-1) both are far from impossible. Brutal start for P6 players..
Most Likely: #5 Disco Partner 5-2 WON ($5.10)
Best Value: #3 Pocket Change 10-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Blind Ambition 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Holding Gold 12-1 4th
7th: 34th Woody Stephens (G2), 3yo, 7f (NYRA Bets P5, G/S, P3, DD)
Fascinating cast with usual assortment of turnbacks from Classic scene (Promises Fulfilled, World of Trouble, Strike Power) and credentialed 3/4-7/8-1m types like Kanthaka (3/3 at trip), Engage and Madison’s Luna. From inside and outside, 50% of this group wants to be on or near the lead, so it’s hard to imagine that stalkers and closers don’t make their presence felt. Still Having Fun (15-1) clearly meant for this trip all along after trying routes. Wasn’t getting run off winner Mitole at Pimlico, but should be on the scene late at bonus tab with ideal new rider in Rosario..
Best Value: #6 Still Having Fun 15-1 WON ($28.00)
Next Best: #11 World of Trouble 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Engage 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Promises Fulfilled 12-1 3rd
$1 EXACTA (6-3) PAID $63.25
$1 TRIFECTA (6-3-9) PAID $444.00
$1 SUPERFECTA (6-3-9-11) PAID $1,876.50
8th: 25th Just a Game (G1), F&M-4+, 1m-T P4, P3, DD)
Terrific group of 8 and almost any could win with several haven taken turns beating each other. A Raving Beauty is the fresh face and won the Beaugay as she pleased. On Leave can adjust to the pace. Lull dangerous if unattended up front. Proctor’s Ledge may prove best at this trip ultimately. Off Limits 3rd/break toting gaudy trip/strip marks..
Most Likely: #7 A Raving Beauty 5-2 WON ($9.30)
Next Best: #3 Off Limits 7-2 4th
Best Value: #1 On Leave 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Proctor’s Ledge 4-1 2nd
$1 PICK THREE (5/6/7) PAID $218.50
9th: 125th Metropolitan H. (G1), 3+, 1m (P3, DD)
Entertaining lineup for this and hard to choose which pace player might stay on (Bee Jerset, Ransom the Moon) v. which of the stalking/closing types reach contention on time (Limousine Liberal, Mind Your Biscuits, McCracken, Good Sam, Awesome Slew). And of course you have Bolt d’Oro to decide on who gets away from Justify..
Best Value: #11 Awesome Slew 6-1 8th
Next Best: #10 Bee Jersey 5-1 WON ($8.50)
Exotics Use: #8 Ransom the Moon 10-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Good Samaritan 10-1 7th
New York/Met Mile DBL Will Pays ($2):
1. 59.00
2. 78.50
3. 140.50
4. 115.50
5. 128.00
6. 232.00
7. 892.00
8. 137.50
9. 362.50
10. 64.50
11. 83.50
10th: 146th Manhattan (G1), 4+, 10f-IT (P4, P3, DD)
Authentic pace parties and the sharper 10f trip give this cast a scrambling look. Mix and match styles and sprinkle liberally with prices. Channel Maker’s Kilroe effort would impact this in a big way. Good value key horse in this context..
Best Value: #9 Channel Maker 20-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Robert Bruce 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #10 Beach Patrol 5-2 13th
Super Add: #13 Spring Quality 12-1 WON ($38.00)
11th: 150th Belmont Stakes (G1), 3yo, 12f (P3, DD)
Have said all that needs be said about a Triple Crown try from what looks like a uniquely talented horse. Logic and history say to bet against and go for the score opportunity and don’t blame anyone for taking that approach. Built like Point Given, Justify looks to gallop this group into submission on an oval that suits his style and gifts. Should be an exciting culmination to what has been another compelling and entertaining Classic Season..
Most Likely: #1 Justify 4-5 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #8 Vino Rossi 8-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Free Drop Billy 30-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Restoring Hope 30-1 8th
Super Add: #4 Hofburg 9-2 3rd
NYRA Bets P5 Grid:
7: 3-6-11 (A), 4-9-12 (B), 1-7 (C)
8: 3-7(A), – (B), 1-4-5-6 (C)
9: 10-11 (A), 5-8 (B), 1-2-3-4 (C)
10: 1-9-10 (A), – (B), 3-11-13(C)
11: 1(A), – (B), 2-4-5-7-8 (C)
Simple (A+B): 6x2x4x3x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x2x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
$0.50 NYRA BETS LATE PICK 5 (6/7/10/13/1) PAID $5,684.00(A-A-C-A-A)
P4 Grid:
8: 1-3-7(A), 4-5-6 (B), 2-8 (C)
9: 5-8-10-11 (A), – (B), 1-2-3-4 (C)
10: 1-9-10 (A), 3-11-13(B), 2-8 (C)
11: 1(A), – (B), 2-4-5-7-8 (C)
Simple (A+B): 6x4x6x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x4x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
$0.50 PICK FOUR (7/10/13/1) PAID $639.25
Gold Cup/Belmont DBL:
GC: 4 (A), 1-6 (B), 5-8 (C)
BS: 1(A), 2-4-8 (B), 5-7-9 (C)
Gold Cup/Belmont Will Pays ($2):
1. 16.40
2. 277.00
3. 95.50
4. 39.20
5. 395.00
6. 213.00
7. 80.00
8. 52.00
9. 215.00
10. 136.00
12th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9f-IT (DD)
Most Likely: #9 Battle of Blenheim 3-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Snap Decision 6-1 6th
Best Value: #8 Monster Bea 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Slim Shadey 5-2 WON ($5.30)
13th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f
Most Likely: #1 Proven Resources 5-2 5th
Best Value: #11 Hammerin Aamer 15-1 WON ($16.60)
Next Best: #6 Autostrade 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #3 Just Whistle 7-2 DNF
P4 Grid:
10: 1-9-10-13 (A), 2-3-8-11 (B), 4-5-7-8 (C)
11: 1 (A), – (B), 2-4-5-7-8 (C)
12: 3-5-8-9 (A), – (B), 6-11 (C)
13: 1 (A), 6-11 (B), 3-9 (C)
Simple (A+B): 8x1x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A’s: 4x1x4x1 = $16 ($8 for .50)
$0.50 PICK FOUR (13/1/3,7/11) PAID $857.50