GP, SA C/O & stakes for Saturday
By kasept. Filed in 2016 |Tags: Carryover, Gulfstream, Santa Anita
GULFSTREAM PARK
POST-SCRATCHES
7th: 30th Hal’s Hope (G3), 4+, 1m (P5, P3, DD, Super Hi-5)
‘Just’ 6 but a very serious group. Mr. Jordan and Valid will 1-2 early and if Matrooh and Mshawish don’t get involved early enough, neither will get by them..
Most Likely: #4 Valid 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Mshawish 8-5 WON ($6.40)
Best Value: #2 Mr. Jordan 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Matrooh 9-5 4th
8th: MSW, 3yo, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Super Hi-5)
Anything close to first 2 starts from Majesto (Half to Overanalyze) will win this unless there’s a significant jump up looming from someone else.. As a side note, Paddy O’Prodigy’s half brother Bombaguia runs in the 6th and Lost Iron’s half Takeover Target a player in the co-featured stake 10th..
Most Likely: #6 Majesto 3-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Gettysburg 4-1 WON ($12.40)
Best Value: #4 Lost Iron 20-1 4th
Exotics Use: #12 Viva La Kid 8-1 7th
9th: OC/N2X, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super Hi-5)
Most Likely: #3 Cherry Wine 3-1 WON ($6.60)
Next Best: #8 Battery 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #4 Fashionable Freddy 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Baby Bear’s Soup 4-1 6th
10th: 63rd Ft. Lauderdale (G2), 4+, 8.5f-T (DD, Super Hi-5)
It’s a lot to ask from Heart to Heart to clear from the #11 hole. Meanwhile, Lochte & Javier gets perfect spot to set up shop saving ground. Lukes Alley a horse I’ve liked from the start of his career and remewmber that he broke his maiden on the WO lawn. Besides unimportant career debut in a sprint, lone career miscue came on soft HAW grass. As discussed on ATR Friday, won’t get 20-1 but surely the Best Value key in this spot..
Best Value: #4 Lukes Alley 20-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Lochte 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #11 Heart to Heart 6-1 WON ($8.00)
Super Add: #8 Takeover Target 5-1 5th
Hi-5 Play: #7 War Correspondent 4-1 7th
11th: MSW, 3yo, 7.5f-T/96′ (Super Hi-5)
Most Likely: #1 Consumerconfidence 4-1 8th
Best Value: #11 City Flyer 6-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Stockyard 7-2 10th
Exotics Use: #6 Not a Chance 10-1 5th
Hi-5 Play: #12 Next Shares 5-1 WON ($16.40)
P5 Grid:
7: 3-4 (A), 1-2 (B), 5 (C)
8: 6 (A), 3 (B), 2-4-9-12-14 (C)
9: 3-8 (A), – (B), 4-5-7-9 (C)
10: 1-4 (A), 7-8-11 (B), – (C)
11: 1 (A), 9-11 (B), 6-12 (C)
Simple (A+B): 4x2x2x5x3 = 270 x .50 = $135 (Option: Single Majesto in 8th for $67.50 play)
Full (A/B/C): $112 (With $1 All A’s Play)
$0.50 Pick-5 (3/3/3/11/12) Paid $20.40 (4OF5)
P4 Grid:
8: 6 (A), 3-4 (B), 2-9-12-14 (C)
9: 3-8 (A), 4-5 (B), 7-9 (C)
10: 1-4 (A), 7-8-11 (B), – (C)
11: 1-9 (A), 11 (B), 6-12 (C)
Simple (A+B): 3x4x5x3 = 180 x .50 = $90
Full (A/B/C): $87 (With $1 All A’s Play)
SANTA ANITA
POST-SCRATCHES
4th: MSW, 3yo, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #3 Rim Nick 7-2 5th
Next Best: #7 Cupid 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Opportunistic 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #10 Denman’s Call 6-1 WON ($46.20)
Super Add: #2 Clear the Way 10-1 8th
5th: S/ALW, 4+, 1m (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #5 John’s Success 4-1: First off D’Amato claim.. 2nd
Best Value: #3 Broken Up 6-1: Vienna acquiree OK if dirt return suits.. 5th
Next Best: #6 Big Tire 7-2: One paced sort won’t see collapse up front.. WON ($4.20)
Exotics Use: #9 Fishel 4-1: Authentic in MDN win; Gets another dirt try.. 8th
6th: 16th Sham (G3), 3yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD)
Not sure why there isn’t more buzz about this race as I think it’s a terrific group. As discussed this week on ATR, cannot recall an early season 3yo stake where the entire field is exiting routes. There are clear cut faves here in Armstrong, Baffert and O’Neill runners (2-3-4-9), but the other 5, including 15-1 maiden Laoban, are well within striking distance with only the most natural development. Treacherous spot for the P6 and P4..
Most Likely: #9 Collected 3-1 WON ($5.00)
Best Value: #6 Laoban 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 I’malreadythere 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Found Money 6-1 4th
7th: OC/N2X, 4+, 8.5f (P3, DD)
Excellent group assembled here with at least half capable on current or back form. Follow Me Crev may have found a home on dirt in terrific effort last time in Cypress and may hold edge on those making comebacks in this spot. Ground Rules, Just Kidding, Motown Men and Little Jerry all look like win candidates. Baltas (Little Jerry) as send Rockport Kat here and I’m not sure what to do with him..
Most Likely: #6 Follow Me Crev 8-1 WON ($9.60)
Next Best: #3 Ground Rules 7-2 6th
Best Value: #9 Just Kidding 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Motown Men 5-2 7th
Super Add: #10 Little Jerry 8-1 8th
8th: 79th San Pasqual (G2), 4+, 8.5f (DD)
Return of California Chrome and he’s working super for this 5yo debut. Feel like he’s totally prepared for this, but he doesn’t ‘have’ to win by any means..
Most Likely: #4 California Chrome 4-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #5 Hoppertunity 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #1 Alfa Bird 20-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Imperative 6-1 2nd
9th: CLM, 4+, 6f (Super Hi-5)
Perilous finale..
Most Likely: #4 Love de Car 9-2 10th
Best Value: #7 I B Mike 20-1 11th
Next Best: #3 Half Dome Dude 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Justonemorething 5-1 WON ($12.00)
Hi-5 Play: #14 Gnarly Dude 8-1 2nd
P6 Grid:
4: 3 (A), 7 (B), 2-5-8-10 (C)
5: 5 (A), 3-6 (B), 9-10 (C)
6: 9 (A), – (B), 4-6-7 (C)
7: 6 (A), 3-9 (B), 2-5-10 (C)
8: 4 (A), 5 (B), – (C)
9: 4-7 (A), 3-6 (B), 2-12-13-14 (C)
Simple (A+B): 2x3x1x3x2x4 = 144 x $2 = $288
$2 Pick-6 (10/6,11/2,9/1,6,12,13/4,7/6) Paid $167.60 (5OF6)
P4 Grid:
6: 9 (A), – (B), 4-6-7 (C)
7: 3-6 (A), 2-5-9-10 (B), – (C)
8: 4-5 (A), 1-8 (B), 2 (C)
9: 3-4-7 (A), 6-13-14 (B), 2-11-12 (C)
Simple (A+B): 1x6x4x6 = 144 x $0.50 = $72
$0.50 Pick-4 (2,9/1,6,12,13/4,7/6) Paid $146.30