Rough weather day marred Keeneland opener a bit and damp, raw afternoons appear on tap for Lexington and Elmont today for the big slates of Cup preps. Soft turf the order of the day as well..

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: 35th Kelso H. (G2), 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Honor Code would seem against a modest projected pace here if he’s going to drop a dozen lengths out as usual when going the one turn mile. At the same time, he exits a very sharp bullet work and may be edgier than we’ve seen. Scenario says he falls short, but with many lining up to beat him, have a feeling he gets up..

Most Likely: #2 Honor Code 3-5 3rd
Best Value: #3 Scarly Charly 20-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Red Vine 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 My Lute 12-1 5th

6th: 38th Flower Bowl (G1), F&M-3+, 10f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Moved to the Widener, looking to soft-loving Danza Cavallo to make the most of the best footing on the crown at a nice price..

Best Value: #10 Danza Cavallo 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Curvy 2-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Regardez 8-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Stephanie’s Kitten 9-5 WON ($6.90)

7th: 68th Frizette (G1), 2yo-F, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Nickname 7-2: Advanced 2nd start after finding Rachel’s Valentina in debut.. WON ($12.80)
Next Best: #1 She’s All Ready 3-1: Cleverly handled NY-bred thriving since Spa wins.. 3rd
Best Value: #7 Where’s the D 10-1: Who’s arguing against O’Neill juvy factory? Stretches from 5.5f.. 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Width 5-2: Another looking to convert from 5.5f, but sharp in debut win.. 5th

8th: 144th Champagne (G1), 2yo, 1m, (P3, DD)

East Coast 2yo’s may have been caught flat-footed in the Hopeful, but this looks like a well-matched group even with the garish Ralis performance lauding it over on paper. There are 6 new winners facing the O’Neill invader here, as well as Brown/Klaravich maiden Portfolio Manager, and any of them (2-3-4-6-7-8-9) appear capable with easy to project juvenile improvement..

Most Likely: #4 Sail Ahoy 12-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Sunny Ridge 20-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Ralis 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Portfolio Manager 12-1 3rd

9th: 41st Hill Prince (G3), 3yo, 9f-IT (P3, DD)

Ridiculous assembly. Use as many as you can afford..

Best Value: #3 Winter Springs 20-1 10th
Next Best: #5 Takeover Target 6-1 WON ($12.00)
Exotics Use: #11 Tale of Life 5-1 8th
Super Add: #6 Courtier 8-1 11th

10th: 97th Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), 3+, 10f (DD)

Tonalist has endured a bit of a maddening season but everything seems set to launch him towards Breeders’ Cup as a repeat winner of the JCGC. Make no mistake though, Wicked Strong (assuming no incident drops jock), Coach Inge, Constitution and Effinez are a stronger cast than he faced a year ago and he cannot be allowed to drop out of it though as he did in the Whitney..

Most Likely: #6 Tonalist 6-5 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #2 Coach Inge 5-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Constitution 3-1 6th

P4 Grid:

7: 1-5 (A), 2-7 (B), 3-4-6 (C)
8: 4-8 (A), 2-3-5-9 (B), 1-7 (C)
9: 3-5 (A), 6-9-11 (B), 4-7-10 (C)
10: 6 (A), – (B), 1-2-3-4 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x6x5x1 = 120 x $.50 = $60

$0.50 Pick-4 (5/2/5/6) Paid $282.00

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: 35th TCA (G2), F&M-3+, 6f (P5, P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Heykittykittykitty 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Judy the Beauty 6-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Sweet Whiskey 7-2 5th
Super Add: #5 Leigh Court 3-1 8th

7th: 18th First Lady (G1), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Crowley’s Law 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Kiss Moon 20-1 9th
Next Best: #11 Tepin 5-2 WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #9 Sky Treasure 15-1 6th

8th: 102nd Breeders’ Futurity (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Like the Champagne, this assembles a group of emergent lads that are tricky to separate. Feels as if there are some good young horses in here with more half legit win candidates (1-4-5-6-7-8-10)..

Best Value: #6 Sticksstatelydude 10-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Brody’s Cause 6-1 WON ($25.60)
Exotics Use: #8 Sheikh of Sheikhs 5-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Rated R Superstar 6-1 3rd

9th: 30th Shadwell Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (DD)

Best Value: #4 Grand Arch 8-1 WON ($10.60)
Next Best: #5 Dutch Connection 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 The Pizza Man 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Bobby’s Kitten 6-1 9th

P4 Grid:

6: 1-3 (A), – (B), 4-5 (C)
7: 1-2 (A), 11 (B), 5-6-7-9 (C)
8: 5-6 (A), 1-4-7-8 (B), – (C)
9: 4-5 (A), 9-10 (B), 6-12-13 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x6x4 = 144 x $.50 = $72

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