Can Retirement REALLY be Far Behind?

blackthroatedwind · #1 11-22-2006, 08:29 PM

From Friday's DRF.....

The Green Monkey turned out
By DAVID GRENING

OZONE PARK, N.Y. - The Green Monkey, who sold for a world-record $16 million at the Fasig-Tipton 2-year-old-in-training auction earlier this year, has been sent to his owner’s farm in Kentucky and won’t make it to the races until next year.

Sightseek · #2 11-22-2006, 08:32 PM

Gee now there's a surprise.

ArlJim78 · #3 11-22-2006, 08:35 PM

I think retirement might be in the best interest of the horse at this point.
Besides, he really doesn't have anything else to prove.
He obviously looked like one of the best we've seen in a long long time.

KirisClown · #4 11-22-2006, 08:37 PM

If they want to save embarrassment, it's the best option...

Scav · #5 11-22-2006, 08:49 PM

So hilarious...the sick thing is that they would probably still make money off him in the shed, eventually

Travis Stone · #6 11-22-2006, 08:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Besides, he really doesn't have anything else to prove.

How about starting with justification for his $16 million price?

#7 11-22-2006, 09:00 PM

The true punch line in all of this is if TGM is sterile or "not interested."

ArlJim78 · #8 11-22-2006, 09:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

How about starting with justification for his $16 million price?

There is no way to justify that.

repent · #9 11-22-2006, 09:03 PM

this is funny.
but its not like he has to run to be given a chance to succeed at stud.
Tiger Ridge never won a race and he is an excellent sire.
although I dont think its really a good thing that a horse that cant even make it to the starting gate should be making more like himself.

Repent

DEES3 · #10 11-22-2006, 09:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I think retirement might be in the best interest of the horse at this point.
Besides, he really doesn't have anything else to prove.
He obviously looked like one of the best we've seen in a long long time.

For some reason this struck me as hilariously funny. I literally had to try to explain it to my wife, who's not a horseplayer, and for some reason she couldn't understand the humor in the statement "looked like one of the best we've seen in a long long time." Thanks, you seriously made my T-giving.

ArlJim78 · #11 11-22-2006, 09:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DEES3

For some reason this struck me as hilariously funny. I literally had to try to explain it to my wife, who's not a horseplayer, and for some reason she couldn't understand the humor in the statement "looked like one of the best we've seen in a long long time." Thanks, you seriously made my T-giving.

Great, I'm glad someone got it! Just carrying to the extreme some of the stuff that has been going on lately.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #12 11-22-2006, 11:20 PM

i heard about the pissing contest behind this one..he basicley ruined juddmont.....let them giants causways rot like pumpkins..

Rupert Pupkin · #13 11-23-2006, 01:53 AM

There are plenty of horses that don't make their first start until half-way through their 3 year old year, so I wouldn't write the horse off yet. Don't get me wrong, you wouldn't pay several million dollars for a horse if you knew that he wouldn't be able to start until half-way through his 3 year old year. This is certainly not a positive development. But I still wouldn't write the horse off yet.

By the way, if this horse never makes it to the races, he is pretty much worthless. His pedigree is not that great. His first dam is nothing special. She made $45,000 racing and this is her second foal. Her first foal was still unraced as of February this year according to the catalog at the sale.

It is possible for an unraced horse to have value as a stallion if they have great breeding, but I don't think this horse's breeding is good enough. It would be one thing if you buy a yearling for $5 million who is by Storm Cat out of a grade I winning mare. A horse like that may have some value as a stallion even if he couldn't run. Tiger Ridge is a good example. He only made $11,000 racing but he was by Storm Cat out of Weekend Surprise.

Rupert Pupkin · #14 11-23-2006, 03:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Rupert, you definitely are very in tuned with what is going on, so please do not take this as any offense, but there is no way this horse makes a start in a stakes race. Easily one of the worst purchases ever. When you are purchased for such a high sum, so early, usually the thought is precocious juvenile. No one spends that kind of money for a horse who may start at 3. Honestly, I am glad. Maybe now there will be some sort of realistic prices for horses, and there will not be a pissing match between the two worse things for modern day racing, Coolmore and Godolphin.

They overpaid for the horse by a million times. I'm not denying that. This horse should have sold for $500,000 or so. And as you said, they were obviously expecting him to run as a 2 year old. I totally agree with you on both of those points.

However, I don't know how you can you say that he will never run in a stakes race. There have been hundreds of horses over the last 10 years that didn't run until they were 3 years old and ended up being stakes horses. It's way too early to say that The Green Monkey won't win a stakes race. It's not too early to say that they paid way too much for him. But it is too early to say that he won't win a stakes race.

King Glorious · #15 11-23-2006, 05:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

They overpaid for the horse by a million times. I'm not denying that. This horse should have sold for $500,000 or so. And as you said, they were obviously expecting him to run as a 2 year old. I totally agree with you on both of those points.

However, I don't know how you can you say that he will never run in a stakes race. There have been hundreds of horses over the last 10 years that didn't run until they were 3 years old and ended up being stakes horses. It's way too early to say that The Green Monkey won't win a stakes race. It's not too early to say that they paid way too much for him. But it is too early to say that he won't win a stakes race.

Tiznow and Bernardini are two that come to mind right away.

King Glorious · #16 11-23-2006, 06:20 AM

On another forum, I was wondering about something like this. Not particularly with this horse but since he's the subject now, what kind of stud fee do u all think he would be able to bring if he doesn't race? Also, what kind of fee do u think Bernardini could have brought had he went to stud unraced?

AeWingnut · #17 11-23-2006, 06:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

On another forum, I was wondering about something like this. Not particularly with this horse but since he's the subject now, what kind of stud fee do u all think he would be able to bring if he doesn't race? Also, what kind of fee do u think Bernardini could have brought had he went to stud unraced?

I think Bernardini would get $5,000 tops unraced.

Silver Charm has won 2 huge races (Kentucky Derby and Dubai World Cup) with almost $7 mil in earnings. I tink his stud fee started at $25k was dropped to $10k and now he has been shipped over to Japan.

#18 11-23-2006, 08:46 AM

Why does anyone care so much?
The Sheikhs and Coolmore both have bought unmitigated disasters in the last 20 years. Both of em.
The fact that this one at 8 million, ooops I meant 16 million, looks to be a bust shouldn't shock anyone.
No matter how much talent they show as young horses just getting them to the races is about an even money prop, getting them to win a race less than that, getting them to be a stakes horse incredibly hard, and getting them to win a grade one just about impossible statistically.
I haven't understood the Green Monkey watch at all.
I mean, the horse that Sekiguchi has with Baffert who won a slow maiden race earlier this year and then disappeared cost just as much(in actuality) and would be considered a bust as well.
I guess I just have a hard time worrying about a bad buy made by either guys who own oil wells, or a guy who owns the British soccer pools.

paisjpq · #19 11-23-2006, 09:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

I think Bernardini would get $5,000 tops unraced.

Silver Charm has won 2 huge races (Kentucky Derby and Dubai World Cup) with almost $7 mil in earnings. I tink his stud fee started at $25k was dropped to $10k and now he has been shipped over to Japan.

by AP Indy out of a G1 mare?
I don't know how much exactly....but prolly more than 5K

Rupert Pupkin · #20 11-23-2006, 10:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80

Why does anyone care so much?
The Sheikhs and Coolmore both have bought unmitigated disasters in the last 20 years. Both of em.
The fact that this one at 8 million, ooops I meant 16 million, looks to be a bust shouldn't shock anyone.
No matter how much talent they show as young horses just getting them to the races is about an even money prop, getting them to win a race less than that, getting them to be a stakes horse incredibly hard, and getting them to win a grade one just about impossible statistically.
I haven't understood the Green Monkey watch at all.
I mean, the horse that Sekiguchi has with Baffert who won a slow maiden race earlier this year and then disappeared cost just as much(in actuality) and would be considered a bust as well.
I guess I just have a hard time worrying about a bad buy made by either guys who own oil wells, or a guy who owns the British soccer pools.

I think your numbers are way off. At the 2 year old sales, if you only buy horses with good comformation, that pass the vet, appear very sound, and have a good way of moving, the chances of the horse making it to the races is probably about 95%. If they were one of the best horses at the sale, the chances of them winning a race are probably about 75% and the chances of them being a stakes horse are probably about 25%. When you see a horse like What a Song working a quarter of a mile in :20 3/5 at a sale, there is an excellent chance that he will be a stakes horse. If a horse works that fast and has a good way of moving, there's at least a 25% chance that the horse will be a stakes horse. That's why the horse went for $1.8 million, even with a mediocre pedigree.

Yearling sales are a totally different story. The chances of picking out a good horse are much smaller there. At a yerling sale, if you pick out the best looking horse with the best breeding, there still is probably only about a 5-10% chance of getting a stakes horse.

With all these percenatges that I'm throwing out here, I'm making the assumption that the person picking the horses is extremely good at it. If you don't have a good eye, your percenatges would be much lower.

Take a guy like Bob Baffert. He has a very good eye. When he buys a horse for $1 million at a 2 year olds in training sale, you can bet that the horse will be a very good horse. At the Barrett's sale last year, he bought two expensive horses. He paid $1.8 million for What a Song and around $800,000 for Point Determined. Both horses turned out to be stakes horses. This year at Barretts, he only bought one expensive horse. He bought an Exploit colt for $1.2 million. I can't think of the horse's name but that horse is 2 for 2 and is a stakes winner.

Anyway, the point is that if you know what you are doing and are willing to pay top dollar at the 2 year old sales, you will get very good horses. At the yearling sales, it is much more difficult because you have far less to go on.