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#1
05-01-2015, 11:19 PM
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5/2: Churchill Downs (141st Kentucky Derby Day)
Oaks Friday ended magically with veteran journeyman Kerwin 'Boo Boo' Clark capping his career by crushing the feature on Lovely Maria. Larry Jones and Brereton Jones netting their 3rd blanket of lilies helped right the wagering ship as well going into Derby Day after some early frustrations. Ran out of time to further elaborate on today's action, but if you had opportunities to tune in to ATR for the lead up to today, you should be prepared. Has been a typically wonderful fortnight in the Ville and I hope everyone enjoyed the coverage. It should be a great Derby. Will do my best to keep you up to speed as the day progresses.
CHURCHILL DOWNS -- KENTUCKY DERBY DAY POST EARLY SCRATCHES 1st: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD) Best Value: #3 Paganol 12-1 WON ($30.20) Next Best: #1 Indycott 7-2 3rd Exotics Use: #2 Evan's Calling 8-1 7th Super Add: #7 Banner Bill 5-1 9th 2nd: OC/N1X, 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #3 Yockey's Warrior 3-1 4th Best Value: #8 Lewys Vaporizer 6-1 3rd Next Best: #1e Catalano entry 9-2 6th/ Exotics Use: #5 Defondo 9-2 9th 3rd: MSW, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD) Half this field looks eligible for honors and the other half for pay slots. All combos should pay well so take shot.. Best Value: #5 Gandono 15-1 9th Next Best: #4 West Village 7-2 WON ($10.00) Exotics Use: #9 Reach for a Kitten 3-1 5th Super Add: #2 Thatcher Street 6-1 2nd 4th: OC/C, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #4 SCR Next Best: #6 Cat Burglar 4-1 2nd Best Value: #10 SCR Exotics Use: #11 Bradester 5-1 3rd Super Add: #1e SCR 5th: Pat Day Mile (G3), 3yo, 1m (Lucky 7, P3, DD) Most Likely: #5 Lord Nelson 3-1 4th Next Best: #6 Competitive Edge 6-5 WON ($4.60) Exotics Use: #2 Gimme Da Lute 7-2 3rd Best Value: #4 Hillbilly Royalty 8-1 6th P4 Grid: 2: 3-8 (A), 1 (B), 5-7-9 (C) 3: 4-5 (A), 2-9 (B), - (C) 4: 4/SCR-6 (A), 1/SCR-10/SCR-11 (B), 2 (C) 5: 5 (A), 2-6 (B), 4 (C) Full (A/B/C): $75 (With $1 All A Play) Simple (A+B): 3x4x5x3 = 180 x .50 = $90 6th: American Turf (G2), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD) Wildly competitive. Demand pricing.. Most Likely: #6 A Lot 9-2 2nd Best Value: #11 Divisidero 20-1 WON ($19.20) Next Best: #8 Conquest Typhoon 5-1 11th Exotics Use: #9 Firespike 15-1 7th Super Add: #5 Another Lemon Drop 20-1 8th 7th: Humana Disataff (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD) Best Value: #3 Dame Dorothy 9-2 WON ($7.20) Next Best: #8 Judy the Beauty 6-5 2nd Exotics Use: #1 Sweet Reason 5-1 4th Super Add: #5 You Bought Her 12-1 7th P4 Grid: 4: 4/SCR-6 (A), 1/SCR-10/SCR-11 (B), 2 (C) 5: 5 (A), 2-6 (B), 4 (C) 6: 6-11 (A), 5-8-9 (B), 1-3-4-7-14 (C) 7: 3 (A), 1-8 (B), - (C) Full (A/B/C): $61.50 (With $1 All A Play) Simple (A+B): 5x3x5x3 = 125 x .50 = $112.50 8th: CD Turf Mile (G2), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #5 Coffee Clique 3-1 2nd Best Value: #3 Tepin 15-1 WON ($20.20) Next Best: #8 Sandiva 7-2 3rd Exotics Use: #4 Lady Lara 7-2 4th Super Add: #1 Personal Diary 8-1 7th 9th: Churchill Downs (G2), 4+, 7f (P3, DD) Most Likely: #2 Bayern 1-1 6th Next Best: #4 Private Zone 2-1 WON ($7.00) Best Value: #5 Pants On Fire 5-1 3rd Exotics Use: #1 C. Zee 15-1 5th 10th: Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1), 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #5 Finnegan's Wake 9-2 WON ($9.40) Best Value: #3 Umgiyo 30-1 Next Best: #8 SCR Exotics Use: #7 Jack Milton 5-1 2nd (Elevated from 3rd) Super Add: #2 Sky Captain 15-1 4th (DQ'd from 2nd) 11th: 141st Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, Super Hi-5) Ready for the most anticipated 2 minutes in the game! As always, I'll stick with my Xpressbet Wagering Guide base selections (Dortmund, Tencendur, Materiality, Mubtaahij) but will add the imperative Firing Line and American Pharoah to the mix. Bolo, Danzig Moon and Upstart are further exotics candidates with real win potential. Everything we've said these 2 weeks in Louisville feels true: this has all the makings of one of the best Derbys most of us have had a chance to see. Best of luck however you play it! Most Likely: #8 Dortmund 3-1 3rd Next Best: #10 Firing Line 12-1 2nd Exotics Use: #18 American Pharoah 5-2 WON ($7.80) Best Value: #4 Tendencur 30-1 17th Super Add: #3 Materiality 12-1 7th Hi-5 Play: #6 Mubtaahij 20-1 9th P4 Grid: 8: 3-5 (A), 4-8 (B), 1-11 (C) 9: 2 (A), 4-5 (B), 1 (C) 10: 3-5 (A), 2-7-8-10 (B), 9-11-12 (C) 11: 8 (A), 10-18 (B), 3-4-6-9-19 (C) Full (A/B/C): $96.00 (With $1 All A Play) Simple (A+B): 4x4x6x3 = 288 x .50 = $144.00 $0.50 P4 (3-4-5-18) Paid $527.45 $60 Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3: Oaks: 6-7-8-13-14 Woodford: 3-5-7-8 Derby: 8-10-18 5x4x3 = $60 $1 P3 (7-5-18) Paid $169.60 $75 Oaks-Derby Double: Oaks: 7-13 Derby: 8-10-18 2x3 = 6 x $6 = $36 $1 DBL (7-18) Paid $27.30 x 6 = $163.80 Oaks: 7-13 Derby: 4-5-6-7-9-19 2x6 = $12 12th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (DD) Most Likely: #4 Guapo Man 5-1 6th Best Value: #1 Flash Trading 10-1 7th Next Best: #6 Raagheb 8-1 2nd Exotics Use: #5 Turn to Include 12-1 8th 13th: MSW, 3+, 7f Most Likely: #6 Bent On Bourbon 5-2 WON ($4.60) Best Value: #9 Coaches Challenge 8-1 3rd Next Best: #10 Sailmaker 6-1 8th Exotics Use: #4 Wild and Unbridled 12-1 DNF-Eased P4 Grid: 10: 3-5 (A), 2-7-8-10 (B), 9-11-12 (C) 11: 8 (A), 10-18 (B), 3-4-6-9-19 (C) 12: 4 (A), 1-6 (B), 2-5-10 (C) 13: 6-9 (A), 10 (B), 4 (C) Full (A/B/C): $67.00 (With $1 All A Play) Simple (A+B): 6x3x3x3 = 162 x .50 = $81.00 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 05-03-2015 at 06:40 PM. 
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#2
05-01-2015, 11:49 PM
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Cash some giants today Steve! Thanks, as always, for your tireless endorsement of the sport. We the bettors owe you!
__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel
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#3
05-02-2015, 05:56 AM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#4
05-02-2015, 05:57 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#5
05-02-2015, 06:07 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#6
05-02-2015, 06:13 AM
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Would have given up years ago if Byk didn't come along. Thanks for keeping it fun Steve!
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#7
05-02-2015, 06:16 AM
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#8
05-02-2015, 06:50 AM
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Great day of racing, fun card. Good luck!
__________________
The world's foremost expert on virtually everything on the Redskins 2010 season: "Im going to go out on a limb here. I say they make the playoffs."
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#9
05-02-2015, 08:06 AM
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Thanks for all your hard work, especially this past two weeks Steve....gl today!
__________________
"Wise men talk because they have something to say, fools talk because they have to say something" - Plato
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#11
05-02-2015, 09:43 AM
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Steve got off to a big start with Paganol...Keep it up.. 46 to the half and kept on going..
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#14
05-02-2015, 10:30 AM
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Int star is out
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#17
05-02-2015, 08:28 PM
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Nice job Steve!!
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#19
05-03-2015, 01:11 AM
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Thanks a lot guys. Hope everyone crushed it today. Got so much insight from the ATR lineup including clockers Welsch, Skaggs and Young, plus all the analysts. Was a great two weeks and then nearly perfect two days. Made it past Columbus tonight. Few days home for recapping and on to Baltimore!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#20
05-03-2015, 10:05 AM
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Chalk players rejoice! I know alot of people who made stacks yesterday. Great day to be a horseplayer
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