Derby Trail Forums - 5/2: Churchill Downs (141st Kentucky Derby Day)

Oaks Friday ended magically with veteran journeyman Kerwin 'Boo Boo' Clark capping his career by crushing the feature on Lovely Maria. Larry Jones and Brereton Jones netting their 3rd blanket of lilies helped right the wagering ship as well going into Derby Day after some early frustrations. Ran out of time to further elaborate on today's action, but if you had opportunities to tune in to ATR for the lead up to today, you should be prepared. Has been a typically wonderful fortnight in the Ville and I hope everyone enjoyed the coverage. It should be a great Derby. Will do my best to keep you up to speed as the day progresses.

CHURCHILL DOWNS -- KENTUCKY DERBY DAY

POST EARLY SCRATCHES

1st: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Paganol 12-1 WON ($30.20)
Next Best: #1 Indycott 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Evan's Calling 8-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Banner Bill 5-1 9th

2nd: OC/N1X, 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Yockey's Warrior 3-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Lewys Vaporizer 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #1e Catalano entry 9-2 6th/
Exotics Use: #5 Defondo 9-2 9th

3rd: MSW, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Half this field looks eligible for honors and the other half for pay slots. All combos should pay well so take shot..

Best Value: #5 Gandono 15-1 9th
Next Best: #4 West Village 7-2 WON ($10.00)
Exotics Use: #9 Reach for a Kitten 3-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Thatcher Street 6-1 2nd

4th: OC/C, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 SCR
Next Best: #6 Cat Burglar 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 SCR
Exotics Use: #11 Bradester 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #1e SCR

5th: Pat Day Mile (G3), 3yo, 1m (Lucky 7, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Lord Nelson 3-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Competitive Edge 6-5 WON ($4.60)
Exotics Use: #2 Gimme Da Lute 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Hillbilly Royalty 8-1 6th

P4 Grid:

2: 3-8 (A), 1 (B), 5-7-9 (C)
3: 4-5 (A), 2-9 (B), - (C)
4: 4/SCR-6 (A), 1/SCR-10/SCR-11 (B), 2 (C)
5: 5 (A), 2-6 (B), 4 (C)

Full (A/B/C): $75 (With $1 All A Play)
Simple (A+B): 3x4x5x3 = 180 x .50 = $90

6th: American Turf (G2), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Wildly competitive. Demand pricing..

Most Likely: #6 A Lot 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #11 Divisidero 20-1 WON ($19.20)
Next Best: #8 Conquest Typhoon 5-1 11th
Exotics Use: #9 Firespike 15-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Another Lemon Drop 20-1 8th

7th: Humana Disataff (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Dame Dorothy 9-2 WON ($7.20)
Next Best: #8 Judy the Beauty 6-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Sweet Reason 5-1 4th
Super Add: #5 You Bought Her 12-1 7th

P4 Grid:

4: 4/SCR-6 (A), 1/SCR-10/SCR-11 (B), 2 (C)
5: 5 (A), 2-6 (B), 4 (C)
6: 6-11 (A), 5-8-9 (B), 1-3-4-7-14 (C)
7: 3 (A), 1-8 (B), - (C)

Full (A/B/C): $61.50 (With $1 All A Play)
Simple (A+B): 5x3x5x3 = 125 x .50 = $112.50

8th: CD Turf Mile (G2), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Coffee Clique 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Tepin 15-1 WON ($20.20)
Next Best: #8 Sandiva 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Lady Lara 7-2 4th
Super Add: #1 Personal Diary 8-1 7th

9th: Churchill Downs (G2), 4+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Bayern 1-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Private Zone 2-1 WON ($7.00)
Best Value: #5 Pants On Fire 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 C. Zee 15-1 5th

10th: Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1), 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Finnegan's Wake 9-2 WON ($9.40)
Best Value: #3 Umgiyo 30-1
Next Best: #8 SCR
Exotics Use: #7 Jack Milton 5-1 2nd (Elevated from 3rd)
Super Add: #2 Sky Captain 15-1 4th (DQ'd from 2nd)

11th: 141st Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, Super Hi-5)

Ready for the most anticipated 2 minutes in the game! As always, I'll stick with my Xpressbet Wagering Guide base selections (Dortmund, Tencendur, Materiality, Mubtaahij) but will add the imperative Firing Line and American Pharoah to the mix. Bolo, Danzig Moon and Upstart are further exotics candidates with real win potential. Everything we've said these 2 weeks in Louisville feels true: this has all the makings of one of the best Derbys most of us have had a chance to see. Best of luck however you play it!

Most Likely: #8 Dortmund 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Firing Line 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #18 American Pharoah 5-2 WON ($7.80)
Best Value: #4 Tendencur 30-1 17th
Super Add: #3 Materiality 12-1 7th
Hi-5 Play: #6 Mubtaahij 20-1 9th

P4 Grid:

8: 3-5 (A), 4-8 (B), 1-11 (C)
9: 2 (A), 4-5 (B), 1 (C)
10: 3-5 (A), 2-7-8-10 (B), 9-11-12 (C)
11: 8 (A), 10-18 (B), 3-4-6-9-19 (C)

Full (A/B/C): $96.00 (With $1 All A Play)
Simple (A+B): 4x4x6x3 = 288 x .50 = $144.00

$0.50 P4 (3-4-5-18) Paid $527.45

$60 Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3:

Oaks: 6-7-8-13-14
Woodford: 3-5-7-8
Derby: 8-10-18

5x4x3 = $60 $1 P3 (7-5-18) Paid $169.60

$75 Oaks-Derby Double:

Oaks: 7-13
Derby: 8-10-18

2x3 = 6 x $6 = $36 $1 DBL (7-18) Paid $27.30 x 6 = $163.80

Oaks: 7-13
Derby: 4-5-6-7-9-19

2x6 = $12

12th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Guapo Man 5-1 6th
Best Value: #1 Flash Trading 10-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Raagheb 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Turn to Include 12-1 8th

13th: MSW, 3+, 7f

Most Likely: #6 Bent On Bourbon 5-2 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #9 Coaches Challenge 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Sailmaker 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #4 Wild and Unbridled 12-1 DNF-Eased

P4 Grid:

10: 3-5 (A), 2-7-8-10 (B), 9-11-12 (C)
11: 8 (A), 10-18 (B), 3-4-6-9-19 (C)
12: 4 (A), 1-6 (B), 2-5-10 (C)
13: 6-9 (A), 10 (B), 4 (C)

Full (A/B/C): $67.00 (With $1 All A Play)
Simple (A+B): 6x3x3x3 = 162 x .50 = $81.00

Good luck!
Steve