11/29: Hollywood Park ($105k C/O)

[Kasept]

Caught square prices Sunday at HollyPark in $19 Unstoppper Topper and $16 Unbridled Command, boosting the nice $870 P4 and closing out an action-packed Thanksgiving Holiday. Hope everyone enjoyed the extended weekend and did well. There are still leftovers remaining, (I made a Turkey Divan last night in fact), and Thursday's $105k carryover should swell past $500,000. Thoughts on the tough sequence below..


HOLLYWOOD PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


3rd: CLM, 3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

$105k C/O starts here..

Very difficult start to skein with droppers, cutbackers and layoff returnees everywhere you look. Vienna's El Pitucon is the giant question having been away 2+ years. I'll let him beat me. Baltas has been sending out live horses with alacrity and turns Streets of Heaven back from 8.5f here. The last time the Street Cry gelding did this while with with Pender (April '11), he buried a similar group. The pick..

Most Likely: #9 Streets of Heaven 7-2 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #1 Half Dome Dude 3-1 (B) 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Cayambe 4-1 (B) WON ($11.00)
Best Value: #4 Scofield Barracks 10-1 (C) 5th


4th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

When running through PP's the first time was drawn to Dynamic Diva immediately making first start for the Mitchell barn. But stats can be funny and Formulator helps you find anomolies. Mitchell is 28% ($2.44) with runners new to the barn and 30% ($2.27) stretching out to routes from sprints. Both apply with the 3yo filly he sends today, but Mitchell is shockingly 0/9 asking for added ground from those making their first start under his watch! As Casey Stengel used to say, "You could look it up". Does it mean she can't win? No. But I'm a lot less enthused than I was initially. Problematic group with half the field making big drops..

Most Likely: #1 Last Sting 7-2 (A) 4th
Best Value: #2 Tweetie Pie 15-1 (B) 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Dynamic Diva 4-1 (B) 8th
Super Add: #9 Katy's Kitty 4-1 (C) WON ($7.40)


5th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)

Miss Communication gets back to turf which she seems to prefer, retains Talamo and owns edge on pace. First opportunity for smaller tix to single..

Most Likely: #1 Miss Communication 5-2 (A) 3rd
Next Best: #7 Toluca 4-1 (B) 4th
Best Value: #10 Miss Speed Dating 5-1 (C) 5th
Super Add: #6 Warren's Mo Money 5-1 (C) 6th


6th: MSW, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Dangerous older maiden set with 3 firsters (Baffert's #8 Indian Gods, Baltas' #4 Funny Man, Headley's #3 Wild Media) to balance against 5 that have already been out. Baffert also sends #1 The Brian who flopped twice at DMR after promising SA debut. Could simply be that the Street Sense colt hated the La Jolla footing. Big tickets will buy this nearly impossible affair..

Most Likely: #1 The Brain 5-2 (A) WON ($4.80)
Next Best: #3 Wild Media 7-2 (A) 3rd
Best Value: #2 Just Fishin 5-1 (B) 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Indian Gods 3-1 (B) 2nd

ALL OTHERS: 4-5/SCR-6-7 (C)


7th: ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (DD)

Mamma Kimbo doesn't need lead to win and should sit ideal outside trip stalking Sister Moon..

Most Likely: #4 Mamma Kimbo 9-5 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #3 Vision in Gold 2-1 (B) 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Sister Moon 5-2 (C) 3rd


8th: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Lady Katfish 3-1 (A) 3rd
Best Value: #1 Truly Beautiful 5-1 (A) 5th
Next Best: #7 She's a Go Girl 4-1 (B) WON ($18.60)
Exotics Use: #6 Irish Presence 6-1 (C) 2nd


<$150 P6 Play:

3: 9
4: 1-2-4-8-9
5: 1
6: 1-2-3-4-5/SCR-6-7-8
7: 4
8: 1-8

1x5x1x7x1x2 = 70 x $2 = $140


<$50 P4 Play:

5: 1-7
6: 1-2-3-4-5/SCR-6-7-8
7: 3-4
8: 1-7-8

2x7x2x3 = 84 x .50 = $42


Good luck!
Steve