11/29: Hollywood Park ($105k C/O)
 

Caught square prices Sunday at HollyPark in $19 Unstoppper Topper and $16 Unbridled Command, boosting the nice $870 P4 and closing out an action-packed Thanksgiving Holiday. Hope everyone enjoyed the extended weekend and did well. There are still leftovers remaining, (I made a Turkey Divan last night in fact), and Thursday's $105k carryover should swell past $500,000. Thoughts on the tough sequence below..


HOLLYWOOD PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


3rd: CLM, 3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

$105k C/O starts here..

Very difficult start to skein with droppers, cutbackers and layoff returnees everywhere you look. Vienna's El Pitucon is the giant question having been away 2+ years. I'll let him beat me. Baltas has been sending out live horses with alacrity and turns Streets of Heaven back from 8.5f here. The last time the Street Cry gelding did this while with with Pender (April '11), he buried a similar group. The pick..

Most Likely: #9 Streets of Heaven 7-2 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #1 Half Dome Dude 3-1 (B) 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Cayambe 4-1 (B) WON ($11.00)
Best Value: #4 Scofield Barracks 10-1 (C) 5th


4th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

When running through PP's the first time was drawn to Dynamic Diva immediately making first start for the Mitchell barn. But stats can be funny and Formulator helps you find anomolies. Mitchell is 28% ($2.44) with runners new to the barn and 30% ($2.27) stretching out to routes from sprints. Both apply with the 3yo filly he sends today, but Mitchell is shockingly 0/9 asking for added ground from those making their first start under his watch! As Casey Stengel used to say, "You could look it up". Does it mean she can't win? No. But I'm a lot less enthused than I was initially. Problematic group with half the field making big drops..

Most Likely: #1 Last Sting 7-2 (A) 4th
Best Value: #2 Tweetie Pie 15-1 (B) 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Dynamic Diva 4-1 (B) 8th
Super Add: #9 Katy's Kitty 4-1 (C) WON ($7.40)


5th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)

Miss Communication gets back to turf which she seems to prefer, retains Talamo and owns edge on pace. First opportunity for smaller tix to single..

Most Likely: #1 Miss Communication 5-2 (A) 3rd
Next Best: #7 Toluca 4-1 (B) 4th
Best Value: #10 Miss Speed Dating 5-1 (C) 5th
Super Add: #6 Warren's Mo Money 5-1 (C) 6th


6th: MSW, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Dangerous older maiden set with 3 firsters (Baffert's #8 Indian Gods, Baltas' #4 Funny Man, Headley's #3 Wild Media) to balance against 5 that have already been out. Baffert also sends #1 The Brian who flopped twice at DMR after promising SA debut. Could simply be that the Street Sense colt hated the La Jolla footing. Big tickets will buy this nearly impossible affair..

Most Likely: #1 The Brain 5-2 (A) WON ($4.80)
Next Best: #3 Wild Media 7-2 (A) 3rd
Best Value: #2 Just Fishin 5-1 (B) 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Indian Gods 3-1 (B) 2nd

ALL OTHERS: 4-5/SCR-6-7 (C)


7th: ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (DD)

Mamma Kimbo doesn't need lead to win and should sit ideal outside trip stalking Sister Moon..

Most Likely: #4 Mamma Kimbo 9-5 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #3 Vision in Gold 2-1 (B) 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Sister Moon 5-2 (C) 3rd


8th: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Lady Katfish 3-1 (A) 3rd
Best Value: #1 Truly Beautiful 5-1 (A) 5th
Next Best: #7 She's a Go Girl 4-1 (B) WON ($18.60)
Exotics Use: #6 Irish Presence 6-1 (C) 2nd


<$150 P6 Play:

3: 9
4: 1-2-4-8-9
5: 1
6: 1-2-3-4-5/SCR-6-7-8
7: 4
8: 1-8

1x5x1x7x1x2 = 70 x $2 = $140


<$50 P4 Play:

5: 1-7
6: 1-2-3-4-5/SCR-6-7-8
7: 3-4
8: 1-7-8

2x7x2x3 = 84 x .50 = $42


Good luck!
Steve

Steve - Did you by chance get workout info on Indian Gods? Just looking at the times, doesnt appear to be the typical Baffert work style.

Thanks

INDIAN GODS Nov 23 HOL 5 1:02.1H M FT B-
Stretched legs here in 37.0, 102.1 rider only leaning on this near the line for Baffert.---Grade: B-

INDIAN GODS Nov 9 HOL 5 1:02.3HG M FT B-
Not real fast early in 24.3 finishing steadily around the turn in 36.4, 102.2. Seems a fit.---Grade: B-

INDIAN GODS Oct 22 HOL 5 1:02HG M FT B-
Not real fast early in 24.2, 36.4 then finished up steady and solid going 101.4, 114.3 galloping out in 128.2. In blinkers.---Grade: B-

Agreed Root.

Hasn't missed a week of training since August as far back as the works show save for a 3 week break in Sept. That's a lot of patience for a soon-to-be 4yo making a career debut.
Just seems something's off. The mare was a stakes winner sprinting, but ran 11th in a sprint first out(PLN #1 06/29/2003) only other foal to race is 0-5.

I'm taking my chances playing against. I do like the way Prized by Buck closed late from an absolutely impossible post and considering that this is far from a stellar msw field, may make it on my tik. Personally, I wasn't crazy about the 5's last effort and took him off... I'm probably going 1,3,7 here.

off the turf in race 5

Hollywood Park 3
$2.00 P6 (PWHL)
1, 3, 9 / 1, 4 / 1 / 1, 3, 8 / 4 / 2, 4, 7, 8
$144.00

GL

Dynamic Diva off board as Formulator Mitchell stat proves prescient. Barn now 0/10 stretching out new acquisitions..

Heard you discussing on the show. Great nugget.

No help in the greater scheme of things though. Particularly thought Miss Communication wouldn't lose when it came off the turf. Uggh.

BHP

#5

$8 PS.. thought the nine had a chance... nice pay off wow

9

none
$ 16.00 $ 189.60 + $ 173.60

Nice call Seth :$:

Mike Smith apparently decided to take a nap in the stretch in the 7th... Never asked Mama Kimbo until he was already going to get beat.

I've seem this movie time and time again where Baffert puts 2 in and the crazy price is the one that wins.

P6 tix only live to 6-7-8..

6 or 7 gets whole pool: $489,908.

8 has 2 winners: $244,954.

Holly 8..

20 wps 6..
In classic Lepar style.... wait, wait, wait.... and wait some more then make one big run at it... He had a ton of horse!

After watching the replay a couple times I'm fairly confident Leparoux didn't want to win this one...I'd like to hear Leparoux's explanation on why he didn't let his horse run earlier in the stretch!