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#1
11-17-2012, 03:32 AM
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11/17: Aqueduct ($47k C/O); Delta (4th-7th); Churchill (6th-11th)
When did Churchill become Keeneland West? Downs races proving darn inscrutable, at least for me right now as Lucky Tiz ($14.40), Catch the Cactus ($60.80), Keep Up ($12.60) and Dancingovertheline ($25.20) stymied me Friday. Suppose quite a few had trouble again at CD based on the P5's $34,127 payout and $5,664 for bingos in the late quad. Hollywood was more productive, as well as entertaining with the successful and impressive debut of Zenyatta sister Eblouissante. Hope everyone did OK. Day and evening long action Saturday with the double C/O at AQU and one at Hollywood, the Jackpot card at Delta and Churchill evening slate featuring a pair of terrific 3yo turf stakes..
AQUEDUCT POST-SCRATCHES 4th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD) $47,394 P6 C/O starts here.. Faves (Saint Arthur, Pleasure Principle) appear tough, but as has been discussed before, Hushion (Nail It) one of an elite handful that truly means business when adding blinkers (54% W's overall; 38% W's 2nd career start in MSW's). Gets 5# edge as well with Wilmer.. Most Likely: #9 Pleasure Principle 7-2 (A) 2nd Next Best: #3 Saint Arthur 7-5 (A) WON ($3.70) Best Value: #5 Nail It 5-1 (B) 4th Exotics Use: #4 Big Breezy 8-1 (C) 7th 5th: CLM, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD) Very slippery group. Much depends on scenario up front where a loose Bandits Heart or Act One Scene One could wire. Basalt makes the most sense under Ramon given the best stalking gear.. Most Likely: #2 Basalt 5-2 (A) 3rd Best Value: #8 Flying Masster 8-1 (B) 5th Next Best: #9 Act One Scene One 8-1 (C) WON ($16.40) Exotics Use: #6 Bandits Heart 7-2 (C) 6th 6th: If Winter Comes, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD) As discussed with Mike Beer on Friday ATR, a spectacular betting affair that came out of nowhere. Unlimited options line up at square prices as absolutely no one from the cast of 10 would be a shock. The prominent connections (Pletcher/Queen'splatekitten; KMc/Soldat) will take plenty of money which leaves career form candidates like See Tobe (6-1) and Beau Choix (5-1) liable to float north and provide terrific value. Lezcano can atone for burying Lubash (6-1) last time and Tune Me In (12-1) has been in good form since mid-summer.. SCR NOTE: #11 Seal Cove (15-1) draws in and be aware that he came back running at KEE off the one year break.. (And proceeds to WIN) Most Likely: #10 See Tobe 6-1 (A) 7th Next Best: #3 Beau Choix 5-1 (A) 3rd Exotics Use: #2 Lubash 6-1 (A) 4th Super Add: #6 Tune Me In 12-1 (C) 5th Will try to beat them within the race, but P6 "B" runners #4 Queen'splatekitten (7-2) & #5 Soldat (3-1) required at least on your P6 backups.. 7th: NY-MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD) Harsh & Shot Rock hopefully get you through on narrow sextet ducat, but Ward firster (Wild Finish) needs to be considered and Stormy Freud drops down, cuts back, adds Lasix and retains Irad. Hmm.. Best Value: #3 Harsh 9-2 (A) 7th Next Best: #5 Shot Rock 9-5 (A) 3rd Exotics Use: #10 Wild Finish 5-1 (B) WON ($18.20) Super Add: #6 Stormy Freud 20-1 (C) 9th 8th: 68th Discovery H. (G3), 3+, 9f (DD) Willy Beamin has been nearly perfect since the claim and is the clear horse to beat owning the pace edge. But take a long look at Called to Serve because he's 2 lengths and a photo beat from having won three in a row at trio of eclectic venues (MNR, RP, BEL). Rosario, who piloted him to Hollywood ALW win in the spring, returns to irons and Canani trainee may get a little lost on the board with wagering darlings Pletcher, Motion and C. Brown involved.. Most Likely: #6 Willy Beamin 7-5 (A) 2nd Next Best: #4 Called to Serve 7-2 (B) WON ($9.60) Exotics Use: #5 Our Entourage 6-1 (C) 6th Super Add: #3 Stephanoatsee 6-1 (C) 3rd 9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T Best Value: #7 Barrel of Love 8-1 (A) WON ($19.20) Next Best: #9 Margano 5-1 (B) 7th Exotics Use: #6 Plainview 7-2 (B) 2nd Super Add: #5 Unbridled Fire 9-2 (C) 5th <$150 P6 Play: 4: 3-5-9 5: 2 6: 2-3-10 7: 3-5 8: 4-6 9: 7-9 3x1x3x2x2x2 = 72 x $2 = $144 <$75 P4 Play: 6: 2-3-10 7: 3-5-10 8: 3-4-5-6 9: 5-6-7-9 3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72 DELTA DOWNS POST-SCRATCHES 4th: 5th Orleans-R, 3yo-F, 7f (P4, P3) Best Value: #6 Minesave 9-2 2nd Next Best: #1 Swift Artist 9-5 10th Exotics Use:#9 My Selection 4-1 8th Super Add: #2 Midge Four 12-1 5th 5th: 10th Delta Mile, 3+, 1m (P3) Best Value: #1 Pirate Island 12-1 7th Next Best: #7 Pants On Fire 9-5 6th Exotics Use: #2 Prospective 2-1 WON ($8.20) Super Add: #3 Hurricane Ike 4-1 4th 6th: 10th Delta Princess (G3), 2yo-F, 1m (P3) Assuming that #9 Sittin At the Bar (20-1) 3rd goes at 7-5 v. LA-breds in the 10th, but she's good enough to get something here if Brinkman chooses.. Best Value: #8 Unhedged 8-1 6th Next Best: #3 Madame Cactus 4-1 4th Exotics Use:#1 Rose to Gold 7-2 WON ($7.60) Super Add: #4 Touch Magic 10-1 2nd 7th: 10th Delta Jackpot (G3), 2yo, 8.5f (P5, P3) Best Value: #6 Itsmyluckyday 8-1 6th Next Best: #9 Goldencents 5-2 WON ($7.20) Exotics Use: #1 Bern Identity 7-2 2nd Super Add: #3 Central Banker 6-1 5th <$75 P4 Play: 4: 1-2-3-6-9 5: 1-7 6: 1-3-8 7: 1-3-5-6-9 5x2x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75 CHURCHILL DOWNS POST-SCRATCHES 6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD) Tough group. Feels like about half the field shows enough to be considered. Thankful this isn't in P5/P4. Sanaaya (9-2) should appreciate a second turn.. Most Likely: #4 Sanaaya 9-2 5th Best Value: #11 Liberty Girl 12-1 WON ($31.40) Next Best: #10 French Lick 5-1 11th Exotics Use: #7 Undo 8-1 7th 7th: 9th Commonwealth Turf (G3), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD) Like the overnight turf stake in NY, an absolute scramble that demands prices as part of your approach.. Most Likely: #6 Lea 5-1 WON ($7.40) Best Value: #10 Artest 20-1 6th Next Best: #9 Excaper 10-1 8th Exotics Use: #13 Finnegan's Wake 8-1 7th 8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9.5f (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #6 Suns Out Guns Out 3-1 2nd Next Best: #7 Tritap 5-2 WON ($4.00) Best Value: #2 Shun 5-1 3rd Exotics Use: #8 Kid Sidney 12-1 5th 9th: 22nd Mrs. Revere (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, DD) As contentious as the boy's race, but seems a bit more likely to go to the logicals. If shopping for a price, 12-1 on nearly perfect Leading Astray is inviting... Most Likely: #3 Peace Preserver 4-1 8th Best Value: #1 Leading Astray 12-1 2nd Next Best: #7 Centre Court 5-2 WON ($5.00) Exotics Use: #11 Miz ida 9-2 5th 10th: OC/N3X, 3+, 8.5f (DD) Most Likely: #2 Golden Gulch 5-2 WON ($6.20) Next Best: #3 Big Town 7-2 3rd Exotics Use: #1 Agent Di Nozzo 5-1 5th Super Add: #8 Adulare 4-1 4th 11th: CLM, 3+, 9f (Super Hi-5) Most Likely: #8 Gold Bells Spin 5-1 10th Next Best: #4 Distorted Dave 7-2 WON ($5.00) Exotics Use: #9 Scariff Island 4-1 6th Super Add: #6 Wheaton's Express 6-1 7th <$75 P5 Play: 7: 6-9-10-13 8: 2-6-7 9: 1-3-7-11 10: 2 11: 4-8-9 4x3x4x1x3 = 144 x .50 = $72 $0.50 Pick 5 (6,15,16/3,7/7/2/1,4,12,13,14,15) Paid $99.25 <$75 P4 Play: 8: 2-6-7 9: 1-3-7-9-11 10: 1-2-3 11: 4-8-9 3x5x3x3 = 135 x .50 = $67.50 $0.50 Pick 4 (3,7/7/2/1,4,12,13,14,15) Paid $26.90 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 11-17-2012 at 08:53 PM. 
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#2
11-17-2012, 10:48 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#4
11-17-2012, 02:02 PM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#5
11-17-2012, 02:31 PM
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That was odd how generously the Ward winner paid... Mr. Lit (8-1 ML; 7-2 PT) took a lot of Wild Finish's money (5-1 ML; 8-1 PT).
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#6
11-17-2012, 02:32 PM
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Quote:
__________________
"Success does not consist in never making blunders, but in never making the same one a second time." - Josh Billings
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#9
11-17-2012, 03:21 PM
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Quote:
__________________
"Success does not consist in never making blunders, but in never making the same one a second time." - Josh Billings
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#10
11-17-2012, 03:29 PM
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Quote:
Quote:
Triple C/O Sunday! $156k 
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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