Derby Trail Forums - 11/17: Aqueduct ($47k C/O); Delta (4th-7th); Churchill (6th-11th)

When did Churchill become Keeneland West? Downs races proving darn inscrutable, at least for me right now as Lucky Tiz ($14.40), Catch the Cactus ($60.80), Keep Up ($12.60) and Dancingovertheline ($25.20) stymied me Friday. Suppose quite a few had trouble again at CD based on the P5's $34,127 payout and $5,664 for bingos in the late quad. Hollywood was more productive, as well as entertaining with the successful and impressive debut of Zenyatta sister Eblouissante. Hope everyone did OK. Day and evening long action Saturday with the double C/O at AQU and one at Hollywood, the Jackpot card at Delta and Churchill evening slate featuring a pair of terrific 3yo turf stakes..

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD)

$47,394 P6 C/O starts here..

Faves (Saint Arthur, Pleasure Principle) appear tough, but as has been discussed before, Hushion (Nail It) one of an elite handful that truly means business when adding blinkers (54% W's overall; 38% W's 2nd career start in MSW's). Gets 5# edge as well with Wilmer..

Most Likely: #9 Pleasure Principle 7-2 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #3 Saint Arthur 7-5 (A) WON ($3.70)
Best Value: #5 Nail It 5-1 (B) 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Big Breezy 8-1 (C) 7th

5th: CLM, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Very slippery group. Much depends on scenario up front where a loose Bandits Heart or Act One Scene One could wire. Basalt makes the most sense under Ramon given the best stalking gear..

Most Likely: #2 Basalt 5-2 (A) 3rd
Best Value: #8 Flying Masster 8-1 (B) 5th
Next Best: #9 Act One Scene One 8-1 (C) WON ($16.40)
Exotics Use: #6 Bandits Heart 7-2 (C) 6th

6th: If Winter Comes, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

As discussed with Mike Beer on Friday ATR, a spectacular betting affair that came out of nowhere. Unlimited options line up at square prices as absolutely no one from the cast of 10 would be a shock. The prominent connections (Pletcher/Queen'splatekitten; KMc/Soldat) will take plenty of money which leaves career form candidates like See Tobe (6-1) and Beau Choix (5-1) liable to float north and provide terrific value. Lezcano can atone for burying Lubash (6-1) last time and Tune Me In (12-1) has been in good form since mid-summer..

SCR NOTE: #11 Seal Cove (15-1) draws in and be aware that he came back running at KEE off the one year break.. (And proceeds to WIN)

Most Likely: #10 See Tobe 6-1 (A) 7th
Next Best: #3 Beau Choix 5-1 (A) 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Lubash 6-1 (A) 4th
Super Add: #6 Tune Me In 12-1 (C) 5th

Will try to beat them within the race, but P6 "B" runners #4 Queen'splatekitten (7-2) & #5 Soldat (3-1) required at least on your P6 backups..

7th: NY-MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Harsh & Shot Rock hopefully get you through on narrow sextet ducat, but Ward firster (Wild Finish) needs to be considered and Stormy Freud drops down, cuts back, adds Lasix and retains Irad. Hmm..

Best Value: #3 Harsh 9-2 (A) 7th
Next Best: #5 Shot Rock 9-5 (A) 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Wild Finish 5-1 (B) WON ($18.20)
Super Add: #6 Stormy Freud 20-1 (C) 9th

8th: 68th Discovery H. (G3), 3+, 9f (DD)

Willy Beamin has been nearly perfect since the claim and is the clear horse to beat owning the pace edge. But take a long look at Called to Serve because he's 2 lengths and a photo beat from having won three in a row at trio of eclectic venues (MNR, RP, BEL). Rosario, who piloted him to Hollywood ALW win in the spring, returns to irons and Canani trainee may get a little lost on the board with wagering darlings Pletcher, Motion and C. Brown involved..

Most Likely: #6 Willy Beamin 7-5 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #4 Called to Serve 7-2 (B) WON ($9.60)
Exotics Use: #5 Our Entourage 6-1 (C) 6th
Super Add: #3 Stephanoatsee 6-1 (C) 3rd

9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T

Best Value: #7 Barrel of Love 8-1 (A) WON ($19.20)
Next Best: #9 Margano 5-1 (B) 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Plainview 7-2 (B) 2nd
Super Add: #5 Unbridled Fire 9-2 (C) 5th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 3-5-9
5: 2
6: 2-3-10
7: 3-5
8: 4-6
9: 7-9

3x1x3x2x2x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-3-10
7: 3-5-10
8: 3-4-5-6
9: 5-6-7-9

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

DELTA DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: 5th Orleans-R, 3yo-F, 7f (P4, P3)

Best Value: #6 Minesave 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #1 Swift Artist 9-5 10th
Exotics Use:#9 My Selection 4-1 8th
Super Add: #2 Midge Four 12-1 5th

5th: 10th Delta Mile, 3+, 1m (P3)

Best Value: #1 Pirate Island 12-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Pants On Fire 9-5 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Prospective 2-1 WON ($8.20)
Super Add: #3 Hurricane Ike 4-1 4th

6th: 10th Delta Princess (G3), 2yo-F, 1m (P3)

Assuming that #9 Sittin At the Bar (20-1) 3rd goes at 7-5 v. LA-breds in the 10th, but she's good enough to get something here if Brinkman chooses..

Best Value: #8 Unhedged 8-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Madame Cactus 4-1 4th
Exotics Use:#1 Rose to Gold 7-2 WON ($7.60)
Super Add: #4 Touch Magic 10-1 2nd

7th: 10th Delta Jackpot (G3), 2yo, 8.5f (P5, P3)

Best Value: #6 Itsmyluckyday 8-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Goldencents 5-2 WON ($7.20)
Exotics Use: #1 Bern Identity 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #3 Central Banker 6-1 5th

<$75 P4 Play:

4: 1-2-3-6-9
5: 1-7
6: 1-3-8
7: 1-3-5-6-9

5x2x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Tough group. Feels like about half the field shows enough to be considered. Thankful this isn't in P5/P4. Sanaaya (9-2) should appreciate a second turn..

Most Likely: #4 Sanaaya 9-2 5th
Best Value: #11 Liberty Girl 12-1 WON ($31.40)
Next Best: #10 French Lick 5-1 11th
Exotics Use: #7 Undo 8-1 7th

7th: 9th Commonwealth Turf (G3), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Like the overnight turf stake in NY, an absolute scramble that demands prices as part of your approach..

Most Likely: #6 Lea 5-1 WON ($7.40)
Best Value: #10 Artest 20-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Excaper 10-1 8th
Exotics Use: #13 Finnegan's Wake 8-1 7th

8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Suns Out Guns Out 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Tritap 5-2 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #2 Shun 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Kid Sidney 12-1 5th

9th: 22nd Mrs. Revere (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

As contentious as the boy's race, but seems a bit more likely to go to the logicals. If shopping for a price, 12-1 on nearly perfect Leading Astray is inviting...

Most Likely: #3 Peace Preserver 4-1 8th
Best Value: #1 Leading Astray 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Centre Court 5-2 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #11 Miz ida 9-2 5th

10th: OC/N3X, 3+, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #2 Golden Gulch 5-2 WON ($6.20)
Next Best: #3 Big Town 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Agent Di Nozzo 5-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Adulare 4-1 4th

11th: CLM, 3+, 9f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Gold Bells Spin 5-1 10th
Next Best: #4 Distorted Dave 7-2 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #9 Scariff Island 4-1 6th
Super Add: #6 Wheaton's Express 6-1 7th

<$75 P5 Play:

7: 6-9-10-13
8: 2-6-7
9: 1-3-7-11
10: 2
11: 4-8-9

4x3x4x1x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 5 (6,15,16/3,7/7/2/1,4,12,13,14,15) Paid $99.25

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-6-7
9: 1-3-7-9-11
10: 1-2-3
11: 4-8-9

3x5x3x3 = 135 x .50 = $67.50

$0.50 Pick 4 (3,7/7/2/1,4,12,13,14,15) Paid $26.90

Good luck!
Steve