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Old 11-27-2010, 01:18 AM
The Indomitable DrugS's Avatar
The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 11,007
Default A recap of how my betting day went

I was most excited about betting 3 different races to start the day.

* Turf Paridise's 6th race:

Mike Chambers is 16-for-26 (62% wins) at the meet - it's to the point now where everything he sends out is going to get hammered ... and here's a horse who had to be laid up for several months off of a recent claim... and in his two prior starts for Mike Chambers, he was twice defeated as an odds-on favorite.



He figured to get hammered to an insanely short price - and he ended up going off at 1/5.


The horse who I thought was the most likely winner in the race ended up going off at 10/1 odds.



This horse had a monumental pace edge - as he was exiting two insanely fast paced races. He was denied the early lead in those two races - and was a cinch to be loose now because this field had absolutely no other speed on paper beside the Chambers layoff horse.. and that one couldn't possibly keep up. The last time this horse made a lead - he popped a 90 Beyer.

Inevitably - my lone speed 10/1 makes a big lead while under a hold - opens up a huge lead and looks home free - only to be nailed in the final jump by a surging 1/5 juice favorite.


* On to the Clark Handicap. Redding Collery is 10/1 on the ML and I believe he's the most likely winner of the race on paper. The obvious and only danger is Successful Dan. Giant Oak was an underneath horse for me - he was beaten only 4.5 lengths to Blame in the '10 Foster and only 1.25 lengths to Blame in the '09 Clark. He is a refuser though - a horse who I will NEVER use in the win slot and almost always look to use underneath.

Even though Redding Collery finishes 3rd - I actually have the trifecta several times on a saver bet with Successful Dan over Giant Oak/RC. Because Giant Oak gets put up to 1st by DQ - I end up with nothing.


* On to Remington's 8th race - there's a horse who's 20/1 on the morning line who actually appears to be as likely as any horse in the field to win... and one of only three horses who are even contenders.



Harminous Union rips off 3 straight wins - the last of which with an 83 Beyer .. a number that CRUSHES the field. She was made 12/1 in a 100K stakes race against Apple Blossom 2nd place finisher Taptam. It was a classic non-effort. A race too bad to be true followed by a layoff line. She comes back for a prep on turf - a surface she isn't bred for and failed to hit the board on in her lone prior turf try. After a likely minor injury and turf prep - she's in for a tag.

She runs 2nd by a head at 11/1 odds. The winner is a 2/1 shot who Harminous Union beat fair and square four races back.




Getting nipped twice on rare standout double digit longshots (even at places like TuP and RP) and getting DQ'd on a race you bet heavily is a combo I haven't had happen to me in the same day in a long time.
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