A recap of how my betting day went
 

I was most excited about betting 3 different races to start the day.

* Turf Paridise's 6th race:

Mike Chambers is 16-for-26 (62% wins) at the meet - it's to the point now where everything he sends out is going to get hammered ... and here's a horse who had to be laid up for several months off of a recent claim... and in his two prior starts for Mike Chambers, he was twice defeated as an odds-on favorite.



He figured to get hammered to an insanely short price - and he ended up going off at 1/5.


The horse who I thought was the most likely winner in the race ended up going off at 10/1 odds.



This horse had a monumental pace edge - as he was exiting two insanely fast paced races. He was denied the early lead in those two races - and was a cinch to be loose now because this field had absolutely no other speed on paper beside the Chambers layoff horse.. and that one couldn't possibly keep up. The last time this horse made a lead - he popped a 90 Beyer.

Inevitably - my lone speed 10/1 makes a big lead while under a hold - opens up a huge lead and looks home free - only to be nailed in the final jump by a surging 1/5 juice favorite.


* On to the Clark Handicap. Redding Collery is 10/1 on the ML and I believe he's the most likely winner of the race on paper. The obvious and only danger is Successful Dan. Giant Oak was an underneath horse for me - he was beaten only 4.5 lengths to Blame in the '10 Foster and only 1.25 lengths to Blame in the '09 Clark. He is a refuser though - a horse who I will NEVER use in the win slot and almost always look to use underneath.

Even though Redding Collery finishes 3rd - I actually have the trifecta several times on a saver bet with Successful Dan over Giant Oak/RC. Because Giant Oak gets put up to 1st by DQ - I end up with nothing.


* On to Remington's 8th race - there's a horse who's 20/1 on the morning line who actually appears to be as likely as any horse in the field to win... and one of only three horses who are even contenders.



Harminous Union rips off 3 straight wins - the last of which with an 83 Beyer .. a number that CRUSHES the field. She was made 12/1 in a 100K stakes race against Apple Blossom 2nd place finisher Taptam. It was a classic non-effort. A race too bad to be true followed by a layoff line. She comes back for a prep on turf - a surface she isn't bred for and failed to hit the board on in her lone prior turf try. After a likely minor injury and turf prep - she's in for a tag.

She runs 2nd by a head at 11/1 odds. The winner is a 2/1 shot who Harminous Union beat fair and square four races back.




Getting nipped twice on rare standout double digit longshots (even at places like TuP and RP) and getting DQ'd on a race you bet heavily is a combo I haven't had happen to me in the same day in a long time.

Talk to me when you have two horses in a race to hit the pick six and one of your two horses falls down, taking out one other horse in the field. No need to guess which other horse was wiped out in the spill.

You complaining about bad beats is pretty comical.

Sometimes I forget how you think you're the world's most unlucky person.

If you had used my newly adopted strategy of looking at sometimes as many as 70 or 80 races a day - and doing it 4 to 6 days a week - you'd be the Babe Ruth of tough beat stories.

IC, OMG:eek: Great story but sorry it happened to you. I can't imagine. This only means a big P6 is coming your way one day for sure. The gambling Gods have to pay you back for that one.

I don't think he believes in "Gods", so I doubt that's going to happen. I know how you feel though IC, everytime one of my bets look good I look at the board for something flashing red.

This from the person who's idea of a bad trip on a horse he bets is having a horse he needs to lose for his horse to win have anything less than a horrific trip.

Have you ever once had a card where you ran second 7 times in a row? 8 times?

All 9?

I've done all three of those. So spare me how unlucky you are.

Doug,

Brutal beats...

I had to chuckle, not at you, but at the Remington outcome. My wife and Mom were part an of ownership group that had claimed Steppin Out Rose and raced her for 2 years. Granted she's bounced between the 20 and 50 claiming ranks her whole life, this fu<kin' mare has always had a knack of finishing in the money.....Nuts.

Welcome to the 21st century way of handicapping. It's about looking at a lot of races (over many tracks) and picking out those with mismatches (rather than going deep into exotics, hoping for a 4:1 payout).

But I think you're looking at this all wrong. It's not about 'tough beats'. A 'tough beat' is just another way to lose. If you play a lot of races each day, then you'll get a lot of 'tough beats' (especially if you play smaller tracks where just about anything can happen). Think of it this way: the 5 home run a year hitter considers it a 'tough beat' when one of his home runs is incorrectly ruled an out. The guy who hits 50 homers a year just considers it another out.

I'd suggest that looking at up to 80 races a day should produce close to 30 plays a day. Of course, when the result is less than 5 plays, then all the beats are 'tough'.

As I told you in private TFM, phuck you. You are an azz and a coward.

Doug on tilt as usual.

Au contraire, mon frere.

My level headed - easy going nature is the stuff of legend.

Yeah - she's a pretty salty horse at those levels. Like 16 wins and about 350K banked now.

His new sig is sad - even for him.

Funny how the bullies or know-it-alls just can't seem to quite take it when it's directed back at them. Then they're the ones getting 'picked on'. Didn't come across any whinning when all the Z supporter or QR detractor or RA detractor mocking was going on. Certainly no whinning when all those 'dissenters' were getting banned over at PA. And all this fuss over some 'inconsistencies' in postings. What gives? :rolleyes:

Do all the males on these forums have lap dogs?:rolleyes:

I'll remove the signature and stop messing with the overly sensitive.