St. Trinians out till at least November

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The Clement Hirsch isn't a handicap either. The show bettors are in for another laughably easy 5% return.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I know Grade 1 races are supposed to be events that are taken seriously and all ... but Del Mar really should invite these girls to take on Zenyatta in the Hirsch ...



Put 13 of them in the starting gate to make a field of 14. Have Zenyatta race 'for purse only' .. and allow for betting on the 13 San Diego Charger cheerleaders racing against her...with all the profits from the takeout going to breast cancer research. Just have the girls race for the first 1/16th of a mile - and they'll be out of Zenyatta's way when she comes across the wire to complete the 8.5 furlong distance.

How is this any worse of an idea than letting horses like Dance To My Tune and Taptam earn 2nd place finishes in very important Grade 1 stakes races?

It will be an event. It will be a charity. People will get to see Zenyatta. They will get to gamble on hot NFL cheerleaders. Boobies will be bouncing. Zenyatta will stay perfect. Everyone wins.

[Linny]

Z is unlikely to run in the Hirsch because of issues with the DM surface.

[smartbid09]

This news sucks! I thought she had a chance in this years Distaff!!! One of the better horses running this year, at least out here in So. Cal.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Linny

Z is unlikely to run in the Hirsch because of issues with the DM surface.

Who will the Charger girls be left to run against?

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by smartbid09

This news sucks! I thought she had a chance in this years Distaff!!! One of the better horses running this year, at least out here in So. Cal.

Really? St Trinians has never run on dirt. How much chance could you have thought she had?

[smartbid09]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Really? St Trinians has never run on dirt. How much chance could you have thought she had?

I wanted to see her try and if she could carry her form on dirt what a horse she would be. But I would have liked the betting odds on her. She wouldn't have been so high as she hadn't ran on dirt so I'd have taken a shot with her maybe...

[randallscott35]

Mitchell got all he could out of her. What a guy.

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Mitchell got all he could out of her. What a guy.

His daughter will sing to her on occasion. If that won't make her want to run again nothing will.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I wish she'd sing for me ....

[randallscott35]

Stick with the crutch girl Doug

[Metal Man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I wish she'd sing for me ....

amen brother

The only way you would have a shot with her is if you could turn into a mirror.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
St Trinians posseses a huge match-up problem for Zenyatta style wise .. if she gets the seperation she figures to get - and the weight spread is what it should be - Zenyatta has very little chance.

She got good separation in the stretch, and she got weight. Z ran down a horse who was drawing away from the rest of the field.That's exactly what you didn't think she could do, but she did do it. That's exactly the situation where many good horses get beat. Told ya this S.T. got this stupid action that would get her hurt once again. Says she's body sore. That's what happens when you twirling rope while trying to hold off the best mare in the country. Same stupid action gunna get the East Coast horse beat in the Classic. I don't care how much "GO" Pletcher pack that wagon with. Going 10F, he gun start twirling rope with his front left. That's what he does. Smith n' Gomez will be on 10f horses.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Yes - that quote was from several months ago - not right before the race.

I said that a few months before St. Trinians tanked in the SA Handicap and went to the sidelines for 3 months.

In her meeting with Zenyatta .. she was making her first start off of a 3 month layoff, her last race was well off form, and she lost a shoe on the far turn... and yet she almost won anyway.

Plus, Martin Garcia was on her instead of Joel Rosario the day she faced Zenyatta ... take a look at Rosario's career stats riding route races sometime and tell me that wasn't a negative rider switch.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Yes - that quote was from several months ago - not right before the race.

I said that a few months before St. Trinians tanked in the SA Handicap and went to the sidelines for 3 months.

In her meeting with Zenyatta .. she was making her first start off of a 3 month layoff, her last race was well off form, and she lost a shoe on the far turn... and yet she almost won anyway.

Plus, Martin Garcia was on her instead of Joel Rosario the day she faced Zenyatta ... take a look at Rosario's career stats riding route races sometime and tell me that wasn't a negative rider switch.

I didn't see anything wrong with Martin Garcia's ride on St. Trinians this day, 99% of the time this is a winning ride, the 1% was Zenyatta was the horse she was trying to stave off, instead of stalling, she put it into another gear and nailed her on the wire. Whether Rosario is a better rider than Garcia at routes is immaterial in this case, the horse couldn't have been ridden better this day.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by CSC

Whether Rosario is a better rider than Garcia at routes is immaterial in this case, the horse couldn't have been ridden better this day.

Couldn't have been ridden any better? You've lost your mind.

Here's a recap of Garcia's supposed perfect ride of St. Trinians:

* The Start:



St. Trinians breaks into the side of the gate and stumbles. Garcia must also steady her back off of heels. Well hey, lets be positive, at least he didn't fall off.

Grade D-


* Early position:



St. Trinians is making her first start off of a 3 month layoff - and horses doing that typically are fresh and show more speed than normal - but don't always finish as well as normal.

However, about 12 jumps in ... St. Trinians is still behind Zenyatta. Separation is the name of the game against Zenyatta.

The thing I've always said about Zenyatta is that when she gets even she's leaving - and when she's ahead, you're dead. Garcia is forced to test my theory after his poor start.


* The 1st turn:



This is where I ask myself "what in the hell is this moron doing?"

The old rule of thumb I've always used is that a horse travels one additional length for each path wider they race on the turn. However, studying Trackus, it seems to indicate that it's actually a length and half or so for each path of ground.

Garcia decides to take St. Trinians (who broke from the 2 hole and could have saved ground) wider than even Zenyatta on the first turn. Zenyatta's a big lumbering horse and doesn't want to get stopped when she makes her move ... why Garcia thinks he needs to be wider than her on the turn is beyond me.

Only two reasons make any sense. 1.) St. Trinians might have been pulling a bit from being so fresh off of the layoff - and horses tend to relax better when they are out in the clear than when they are on the fence.

2.) He was afraid that Victor Espinoza would keep him locked on Zardana. Zardana and Zenyatta are both trained by Shirreffs, and you saw what Espinoza did to Lookin at Lucky in the SA Derby when Gomez tried to come inside of him. He might have put himself in Espinoza's trap if he saved the ground and tried to steal it up the rail .. but it's a risk you have to take.

If you don't think saving ground in a 2-turn route is important. Go watch where Awesome Gem is on the turns and go watch where Rail Trip is on the turns in the Hollywood Gold Cup.


* The Far Turn:



Because Garcia was worried that Espinoza was trying to trap him or that his horse would get rank running against the rail so early ... he was forced to race 4-to-5 paths wide the entrie way around the whole far turn.

Meanwhile, Zenyatta was poised to strike in behind them. She didn't start to tip out till about 2/3rds of the way around the far turn which allowed her to save a little ground on St. Trinians all while not having her momentum stopped. Her run would be a clear one and this is the point in the race where St. Trinians reportedly loses a shoe.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

* The Finish Line



St. Trinians so called "perfect ride" concludes with her losing by a head.

In case anyone is wondering - Garcia's career win percentage in route races is 13% and his ROI is $1.61 - which means you lose 19.5% per dollar bet - which is more than the win takeout.

Fellow young rider Joel Rosario - who got the boot on St. Trinians - has ridden 1,820 route races in his career, he won 17% of them and his ROI is an absolutely mind-boggling $2.07. Which is a 3.5% profit per dollar bet. In synthetic route races - Rosario is 19% with a $2.31 ROI lifetime. An ROI that is borderline impossible for a jockey to achieve from over 700 career rides.

[CSC]

Alot of work when a simple answer of you asserting that if Rosario rode, St. Trinians she would have beaten Zenyatta. I think this is what you are trying to infer. Sorry you are losing a grasp on reality when Zenyatta is concerned. If that was as bad ride as you assert, there are many more to choose from rather than nitpicking a winning ride as this one was or atleast 99% of the time it is.

[RockHardTen1985]

DOUG IS A LEGEND, ITS STUFF LIKE THIS THAT DREAMS ARE MADE OF.
My dream of teaming up with Doug for the best horse racing figures ever is getting close to being a reality. JoeynDoug Sheets.