St. Trinians out till at least November

[CSC]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Yes - that quote was from several months ago - not right before the race.

I said that a few months before St. Trinians tanked in the SA Handicap and went to the sidelines for 3 months.

In her meeting with Zenyatta .. she was making her first start off of a 3 month layoff, her last race was well off form, and she lost a shoe on the far turn... and yet she almost won anyway.

Plus, Martin Garcia was on her instead of Joel Rosario the day she faced Zenyatta ... take a look at Rosario's career stats riding route races sometime and tell me that wasn't a negative rider switch.

I didn't see anything wrong with Martin Garcia's ride on St. Trinians this day, 99% of the time this is a winning ride, the 1% was Zenyatta was the horse she was trying to stave off, instead of stalling, she put it into another gear and nailed her on the wire. Whether Rosario is a better rider than Garcia at routes is immaterial in this case, the horse couldn't have been ridden better this day.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by CSC

Whether Rosario is a better rider than Garcia at routes is immaterial in this case, the horse couldn't have been ridden better this day.

Couldn't have been ridden any better? You've lost your mind.

Here's a recap of Garcia's supposed perfect ride of St. Trinians:

* The Start:



St. Trinians breaks into the side of the gate and stumbles. Garcia must also steady her back off of heels. Well hey, lets be positive, at least he didn't fall off.

Grade D-


* Early position:



St. Trinians is making her first start off of a 3 month layoff - and horses doing that typically are fresh and show more speed than normal - but don't always finish as well as normal.

However, about 12 jumps in ... St. Trinians is still behind Zenyatta. Separation is the name of the game against Zenyatta.

The thing I've always said about Zenyatta is that when she gets even she's leaving - and when she's ahead, you're dead. Garcia is forced to test my theory after his poor start.


* The 1st turn:



This is where I ask myself "what in the hell is this moron doing?"

The old rule of thumb I've always used is that a horse travels one additional length for each path wider they race on the turn. However, studying Trackus, it seems to indicate that it's actually a length and half or so for each path of ground.

Garcia decides to take St. Trinians (who broke from the 2 hole and could have saved ground) wider than even Zenyatta on the first turn. Zenyatta's a big lumbering horse and doesn't want to get stopped when she makes her move ... why Garcia thinks he needs to be wider than her on the turn is beyond me.

Only two reasons make any sense. 1.) St. Trinians might have been pulling a bit from being so fresh off of the layoff - and horses tend to relax better when they are out in the clear than when they are on the fence.

2.) He was afraid that Victor Espinoza would keep him locked on Zardana. Zardana and Zenyatta are both trained by Shirreffs, and you saw what Espinoza did to Lookin at Lucky in the SA Derby when Gomez tried to come inside of him. He might have put himself in Espinoza's trap if he saved the ground and tried to steal it up the rail .. but it's a risk you have to take.

If you don't think saving ground in a 2-turn route is important. Go watch where Awesome Gem is on the turns and go watch where Rail Trip is on the turns in the Hollywood Gold Cup.


* The Far Turn:



Because Garcia was worried that Espinoza was trying to trap him or that his horse would get rank running against the rail so early ... he was forced to race 4-to-5 paths wide the entrie way around the whole far turn.

Meanwhile, Zenyatta was poised to strike in behind them. She didn't start to tip out till about 2/3rds of the way around the far turn which allowed her to save a little ground on St. Trinians all while not having her momentum stopped. Her run would be a clear one and this is the point in the race where St. Trinians reportedly loses a shoe.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

* The Finish Line



St. Trinians so called "perfect ride" concludes with her losing by a head.

In case anyone is wondering - Garcia's career win percentage in route races is 13% and his ROI is $1.61 - which means you lose 19.5% per dollar bet - which is more than the win takeout.

Fellow young rider Joel Rosario - who got the boot on St. Trinians - has ridden 1,820 route races in his career, he won 17% of them and his ROI is an absolutely mind-boggling $2.07. Which is a 3.5% profit per dollar bet. In synthetic route races - Rosario is 19% with a $2.31 ROI lifetime. An ROI that is borderline impossible for a jockey to achieve from over 700 career rides.

[CSC]

Alot of work when a simple answer of you asserting that if Rosario rode, St. Trinians she would have beaten Zenyatta. I think this is what you are trying to infer. Sorry you are losing a grasp on reality when Zenyatta is concerned. If that was as bad ride as you assert, there are many more to choose from rather than nitpicking a winning ride as this one was or atleast 99% of the time it is.

[RockHardTen1985]

DOUG IS A LEGEND, ITS STUFF LIKE THIS THAT DREAMS ARE MADE OF.
My dream of teaming up with Doug for the best horse racing figures ever is getting close to being a reality. JoeynDoug Sheets.

[CSC]

I'll say this, no one can post pictures or quizzes like him, I really appreciate the effort on his part, but I seriously doubt anyone in the biz would read his post and still blame Garcia for losing the race to Zenyatta, or atleast with a straight face.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by CSC

I'll say this, no one can post pictures or quizzes like him, I really appreciate the effort on his part, but I seriously doubt anyone in the biz would read his post and still blame Garcia for losing the race to Zenyatta, or atleast with a straight face.

You'd be WRONG. I didn't bother reading the specific of DrugS' argument, I'm sure it's full of TRIVIALITIES, in other words, THE OBVIOUS. And it probably took him a month to see what others did after a single viewing of the race. However, that GARCIA moved too soon is OBVIOUS (anything else is fluff). Not only did he lose the race by doing so but he also put his horse under undue/excessive pressure and, effectively, broke her down (for the time being).

Then again, you still think that Interactif is better than PoP.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

DOUG IS A LEGEND, ITS STUFF LIKE THIS THAT DREAMS ARE MADE OF.
My dream of teaming up with Doug for the best gay sex ever is getting close to being a reality. JoeynDoug between the Sheets.

FTFY

[Indian Charlie]

Good one Sighty!

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by CSC

Alot of work when a simple answer of you asserting that if Rosario rode, St. Trinians she would have beaten Zenyatta. I think this is what you are trying to infer. Sorry you are losing a grasp on reality when Zenyatta is concerned. If that was as bad ride as you assert, there are many more to choose from rather than nitpicking a winning ride as this one was or atleast 99% of the time it is.

The work shows it all though, there is really not debate here.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

The work shows it all though, there is really not debate here.

A replay would be far better, don't you think?

[CSC]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-fJpTGaPH8

A better view, now if Doug wants to assert that St. Trinians would have been better off to follow 60-1 shot Will O Way or the inferior Zardana to save ground AND lose 1st run (a point he made was to her advantage) on Zenyatta. Then I concede, he has a point, however no sane handicapper watching the replay would advise a jockey to follow a 60-1 shot or a fading Zardana. The fact is St Trinians was in a position to win, a tribute to her Jockey and was full of run at the wire running 11 and change the final 1/8th, to blame the rider is simply silly and a grasp IMO while not recognizing a horse that was able to outfinish her.