7/24: Saratoga (Day 2-CCA OAKS; $42k C/O)

[Kasept]

Despite a brutal day of weather, in fact the first significant rain of the entire summer thus far, Saratoga opening day was a complete pleasure. From the crowd of 23,000, to all sources handle in excess of $13,000,000 (with three races off the turf), to 5 of 10 winners paying over $20.00 tripping enormous exotics and multis, to performances like Vineyard Haven's in the James Marvin, it took just one day of Saratoga to remind anyone of racing's best attributes.

Things clicked early as Best Value second choice Dontstealmyland ran them all down in the season opener as the longest shot on the board (23-1), tipping payments of $48.60, $22.20, $7.10, the $226 exacta and $953 triple with top choice Seattle Mission (4-5) third and 4th choice Sir Dunstan (13-1). I only had the winner on a win/place ticket, but this kind of score got the meet off on a great note and provides the bankroll girding that can trigger aggressive play which frequently is rewarded. Trained by regular ATR caller Kerry 'Kerry from Saratoga' Metiver, Dontstealmyland was discussed on ATR Thursday and Friday as the kind of horse to use and play with on the chance that a favorite like Seattle Mission falters, and that's exactly what happened. In turf races particularly, these are the opportunities on which you hope to capitalize at Saratoga. The son of Badge had run a nice race two weeks back at Suffolk in which he flashed his predilection for turf while 'pairing up' to his previous career best performance. Any improvement was going to make the 4yo grey competitive with the group he was facing, and the addition of a skilled turf pilot like Leparoux made Dontstealmyland a prime longshot play.

Had to abandon the off the turf races (4th-6th) with no chance to rework selections, but listeners to the afternoon feed of At the Races were directed to Cinder Cone who won ($29). The day's best effort came from Vineyard Haven who turned in a sparkler in the James Marvin that earned a 102 Beyer that stamps him as one of the early favorites for the BC Mile. It was a fun, if soggy, opening salvo of the Saratoga summer, and I hope you did well! Great Saturday of action in the offing besides the Coaching Club American Oaks and Spa slate, which includes a $42k P6 carryover, as Rachel Alexandra looks to put on an exhibition at Monmouth, the Claiming Crown runs at Canterbury and the Gr. I Eddie Read highlights ol' Del Mar.


SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m OFF TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Abilio 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #11 Mineswept 8-5 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #8 Leatherhead 6-1 6th


2nd: NY-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Not much to go on; As with Friday, tough way to open P4..

Most Likely: #4 D' Sauvage 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #2 Never Right Joey 3-1 WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #7 Private Rules 8-1 6th


3rd: MSW, 3+, 8.5f OFF TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Baatesh 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Chairman Now 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Keep Me Informed 7-2 WON ($4.80)
Super Add: #9 El Primero 9-2 6th


4th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

What's better than a grass mile with no standouts? Spread a bit here with even Northern Giant a serious player given strong pattern and nice pedigree for lawn bow..

SCR'S get Xodo, as well as #12 Piazza Di Spagna into the field..

Best Value: #4 Compliance Officer 12-1 WON ($13.80)
Next Best: #11 Xodo 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #12 Piazza Di Spagna 20-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Northern Giant 12-1 3rd


5th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Quirky way to start the P6 carryover sequence

Most Likely: #9 Lindsay Point 9-2 WON ($8.00)
Best Value: #3 Late SCR - Went nuts in paddock
Next Best: #4 Heck 7-2 7th
Super Add: #10 Kaitlyn Ann 4-1 5th


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-4
3: 1-6-11
4: 4-7-11-12
5: 3-4-9

2x3x4x3 = $72 $1 P4 (2-2/3/7/8/10/11-4-9) Paid $359.00


6th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

On a firm course, I'd use the top two in multis and key only in-race, but turf condition may come into play as bioth have been less effective on going with cut to it.. Note that #3 Saginaw has been tried to get on grass over and over last fall..

Most Likely: #8 Hangingbyathread 7-2: Owns edge; Softer going an issue? 6th
Best Value: #7 Spa City Fever 6-1: Gets first run; Again, going gives pause.. WON ($12.20)
Next Best: #3 Saginaw 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #11 Midnight Billy 8-1 4th


7th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1a Joe Vann 7-2 6th
Next Best: #7 Soldat 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Wine Police 6-1 WON ($7.10)


8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Ash Zee 2-1: Anything near last effort wins.. WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #6 Patience Drive 8-1: Benzel effective off these breaks.. 7th
Next Best: #1 Zonga Zing 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #7 SCR


9th: 94th Coaching Club American Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (DD, Super)

Outstanding, deep and balanced cast for this august standard which may have found new life as a natural stepping stone towards the Alabama..

Most Likely: #7 Devil May Care 6-5 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #8 Acting Happy 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Bahama Bound 8-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Biofuel 6-1 2nd


10th: MSW, 3+, 6f (Super)

Oof.. tough nightcap..

Most Likely: #8 Ae Pit 3-1 8th
Best Value: #7 Grand Strategy 8-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Equestrio 9-2 5th
Super Add: #3 Cravin Caden 8-1 4th


<$150 P6 Play:

5: 3-9
6: 3-7-8
7: 1
8: 4
9: 7
10: ALL

2x3x1x1x1x10 = 60 x $2 = $120 $2 P6 (9/7/8/4,7/2,4,7/6) Paid $83.50 (5OF6)


@$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-7
8: 4
9: 1-6-7-8
10: ALL

2x1x4x10 = $80


Good luck!
Steve