7/24: Saratoga (Day 2-CCA OAKS; $42k C/O)
 

Despite a brutal day of weather, in fact the first significant rain of the entire summer thus far, Saratoga opening day was a complete pleasure. From the crowd of 23,000, to all sources handle in excess of $13,000,000 (with three races off the turf), to 5 of 10 winners paying over $20.00 tripping enormous exotics and multis, to performances like Vineyard Haven's in the James Marvin, it took just one day of Saratoga to remind anyone of racing's best attributes.

Things clicked early as Best Value second choice Dontstealmyland ran them all down in the season opener as the longest shot on the board (23-1), tipping payments of $48.60, $22.20, $7.10, the $226 exacta and $953 triple with top choice Seattle Mission (4-5) third and 4th choice Sir Dunstan (13-1). I only had the winner on a win/place ticket, but this kind of score got the meet off on a great note and provides the bankroll girding that can trigger aggressive play which frequently is rewarded. Trained by regular ATR caller Kerry 'Kerry from Saratoga' Metiver, Dontstealmyland was discussed on ATR Thursday and Friday as the kind of horse to use and play with on the chance that a favorite like Seattle Mission falters, and that's exactly what happened. In turf races particularly, these are the opportunities on which you hope to capitalize at Saratoga. The son of Badge had run a nice race two weeks back at Suffolk in which he flashed his predilection for turf while 'pairing up' to his previous career best performance. Any improvement was going to make the 4yo grey competitive with the group he was facing, and the addition of a skilled turf pilot like Leparoux made Dontstealmyland a prime longshot play.

Had to abandon the off the turf races (4th-6th) with no chance to rework selections, but listeners to the afternoon feed of At the Races were directed to Cinder Cone who won ($29). The day's best effort came from Vineyard Haven who turned in a sparkler in the James Marvin that earned a 102 Beyer that stamps him as one of the early favorites for the BC Mile. It was a fun, if soggy, opening salvo of the Saratoga summer, and I hope you did well! Great Saturday of action in the offing besides the Coaching Club American Oaks and Spa slate, which includes a $42k P6 carryover, as Rachel Alexandra looks to put on an exhibition at Monmouth, the Claiming Crown runs at Canterbury and the Gr. I Eddie Read highlights ol' Del Mar.


SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m OFF TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Abilio 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #11 Mineswept 8-5 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #8 Leatherhead 6-1 6th


2nd: NY-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Not much to go on; As with Friday, tough way to open P4..

Most Likely: #4 D' Sauvage 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #2 Never Right Joey 3-1 WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #7 Private Rules 8-1 6th


3rd: MSW, 3+, 8.5f OFF TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Baatesh 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Chairman Now 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Keep Me Informed 7-2 WON ($4.80)
Super Add: #9 El Primero 9-2 6th


4th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

What's better than a grass mile with no standouts? Spread a bit here with even Northern Giant a serious player given strong pattern and nice pedigree for lawn bow..

SCR'S get Xodo, as well as #12 Piazza Di Spagna into the field..

Best Value: #4 Compliance Officer 12-1 WON ($13.80)
Next Best: #11 Xodo 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #12 Piazza Di Spagna 20-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Northern Giant 12-1 3rd


5th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Quirky way to start the P6 carryover sequence

Most Likely: #9 Lindsay Point 9-2 WON ($8.00)
Best Value: #3 Late SCR - Went nuts in paddock
Next Best: #4 Heck 7-2 7th
Super Add: #10 Kaitlyn Ann 4-1 5th


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-4
3: 1-6-11
4: 4-7-11-12
5: 3-4-9

2x3x4x3 = $72 $1 P4 (2-2/3/7/8/10/11-4-9) Paid $359.00


6th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

On a firm course, I'd use the top two in multis and key only in-race, but turf condition may come into play as bioth have been less effective on going with cut to it.. Note that #3 Saginaw has been tried to get on grass over and over last fall..

Most Likely: #8 Hangingbyathread 7-2: Owns edge; Softer going an issue? 6th
Best Value: #7 Spa City Fever 6-1: Gets first run; Again, going gives pause.. WON ($12.20)
Next Best: #3 Saginaw 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #11 Midnight Billy 8-1 4th


7th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1a Joe Vann 7-2 6th
Next Best: #7 Soldat 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Wine Police 6-1 WON ($7.10)


8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Ash Zee 2-1: Anything near last effort wins.. WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #6 Patience Drive 8-1: Benzel effective off these breaks.. 7th
Next Best: #1 Zonga Zing 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #7 SCR


9th: 94th Coaching Club American Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (DD, Super)

Outstanding, deep and balanced cast for this august standard which may have found new life as a natural stepping stone towards the Alabama..

Most Likely: #7 Devil May Care 6-5 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #8 Acting Happy 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Bahama Bound 8-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Biofuel 6-1 2nd


10th: MSW, 3+, 6f (Super)

Oof.. tough nightcap..

Most Likely: #8 Ae Pit 3-1 8th
Best Value: #7 Grand Strategy 8-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Equestrio 9-2 5th
Super Add: #3 Cravin Caden 8-1 4th


<$150 P6 Play:

5: 3-9
6: 3-7-8
7: 1
8: 4
9: 7
10: ALL

2x3x1x1x1x10 = 60 x $2 = $120 $2 P6 (9/7/8/4,7/2,4,7/6) Paid $83.50 (5OF6)


@$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-7
8: 4
9: 1-6-7-8
10: ALL

2x1x4x10 = $80


Good luck!
Steve

Races 1 and 3 off the turf, conditions yeilding and muddy per NYRA.com

Thanks G.

Steve - any update on how track is drying? Thanks

Weather: PARTLY CLOUDY, 73 (Morning)
CLOUDY, 80 (Post)

Track: MUDDY

Turf: YIELDING

Turf Races: 4,6- ON TURF ( 1,3,10 - OFF TURF )

Inner: Set at 9 Ft

Mellon: Set at 0 Ft

P6 Carryover: $42,112.00 Takeout - 26.00 %

DAILY NOTES
RACE 1-OFF TURF @ 7 FUR; RACE 3-OFF TURF @ 1 1/8 MI; RACE 1- NO SUPERFECTA; RACE 9- NO SUPERFECTA

SCRATCHES
Race Program # Horse Time Notes
1 2 Franklin Delano Early NO SUPERFECTA
3 Wishingonadream Early
4 Mr. Hooker Early
6 Tom Kitten Early
10 Thunder Chief Early

2 5 Cousin Frankie Early

3 2 Distant Sky Early
7 Rock America Early
8 Joshua Reynolds Early
10 Cinnamon Beach Early

4 8 Strong Commitment Early
9 Ad Infinitum Early
10 Slevin Early
13 Cherokee Speed Early
15 Versailles Road Early
16 Romans Reward Early

5 2 Soldierette Early
8 Moonwalk Beauty Early

6 2 Hammock Early

7 1 (poe) Biddy Early

8 7 Happy Week Early

9 2 Lisa's Booby Trap Early NO SUPERFECTA
4 Connie and Michael Early

10 1A Do It All Early
10 Paperless Early

JOCKEY CHANGES
Race Program # Horse Changes
3 11 Keep Me Informed Garrett Gomez

4 14 Rein King Javier Castellano

MISCELLANEOUS CHANGES
Race Program # Horse Changes
1 8 Leatherhead RIDGLING

4 3 Thunder Perfect +1
14 Rein King BLINKERS OFF

6 1 Come Undone RIDGLING
5 Alltiffedoff +1

8 9 How Far to Heaven BLINKERS LAST START & TODAY

Interesting to note that Gomez, in town for the CCAO, picks up the MTO mount in the 3rd

It's a Mott-trained WinStar by A.P. Indy who will probably be 2-1. I'm sure they didn't have to beg Ron Anderson.

True dat

Had another little spate of rain, and air is very heavy. Chance that there is a bit more rain yet unfortunately but sun out now... We'll have to see if harrows and sunshine can dry it out.

Cant get off Bull Hole in the 4th for some reason, gonna play doubles in the 3rd and 4th all/6 and 6/all. 10 dollar straight exacta 6-12 in the 4th.

Fantastic job on the early P4!!:$:

Great to see you off to a fast start at the Spa, hope you keep it rolling.

Congrats, and thanks as always.

I know that using the 8 (and the 7 I suppose) in the 7th probably busted your budget for the P6, but you deserved to hit this today. Great job on 5 out of 6!!

Phil/Larry,

Thanks very much! Was generally a good day and certainly had potential to be outstanding with the inclusion of the Asmussen colt. Had the right idea with the all button in the nightcap. Hope everyone did well! Looking forward to Sunday for all the obvious reasons...

The sad thing is if you had seen the toteboard action on the Assman colt you probably have it given that he went off at 5/2 from a 6/1 ML- generally NYRA does a good job positioning races with firsters outside of blind spots in multi-race wagers, however they really didn't have a choice here with the other races on the card, unlike California which invariably puts a maiden race last every day.

It's funny you say that Phil.. I am not the biggest tote action follower out there, but when Joe Vann opened at 4-1 and more or less remained there, I knew I was a chicken in a pot.