Rachel vs. Zenyatta: Which run the better race?

[VOL JACK]

Rachel- 111 Beyer while carrying equal weight.(121 lbs) beating 2 3yo fillies.

Zenyatta-104 Beyer whille carrying 129 lbs. and conceding up to 16 lbs to
her rivals. On a surface that may or may not be her favorite.

[Cannon Shell]

I just hope the meet in the Personal Ensign at Saratoga or better yet the Woodward.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I just hope the meet in the Personal Ensign at Saratoga or better yet the Woodward.

It wont be Saratoga, Belmont would be likely.

Why should RA even show though no matter where its run, she has everything to lose (HOY) and nothing to gain?

If stepping out of your own division to win against MTB and Musket Man is impressive isnt it just a better idea to run in the Breeders Cup Classic, whats the list of fillies or mares who have won that race the past 25 years?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

It wont be Saratoga, Belmont would be likely.

Why should RA even show though no matter where its run, she has everything to lose (HOY) and nothing to gain?

If stepping out of your own division to win against MTB and Musket Man is impressive isnt it just a better idea to run in the Breeders Cup Classic, whats the list of fillies or mares who have won that race the past 25 years?

Why shouldn't she show up? Will a loss damage her stud career? Remember she is now owned and campaigned by Mr. Sportsman himself! Not to mention that I could sell my clubhouse seats for scalpers prices if they were to match up at the Spa.

[the_fat_man]

What are you a dissenting nihilist?

This is a BEYER fueled forum. Whichever horse got the highest BEYER ran FASTER and thus BETTER. I'd say, from the NUMBERS, Zenyatta is just not FAST ENOUGH.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

What are you a dissenting nihilist?

This is a BEYER fueled forum. Whichever horse got the highest BEYER ran FASTER and thus BETTER. I'd say, from the NUMBERS, Zenyatta is just not FAST ENOUGH.

Zenyatta by the beyers is actually a pretty slow horse in relation to her record.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Why shouldn't she show up? Will a loss damage her stud career? Remember she is now owned and campaigned by Mr. Sportsman himself! Not to mention that I could sell my clubhouse seats for scalpers prices if they were to match up at the Spa.

show up and lose and would lose horse of the year

versus dont show up and its a lock to win horse of the year. It means something to JJ, he stated that repeatedly with Curlin.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

What are you a dissenting nihilist?

This is a BEYER fueled forum. Whichever horse got the highest BEYER ran FASTER and thus BETTER. I'd say, from the NUMBERS, Zenyatta is just not FAST ENOUGH.

thats funny, you're good. apples and oranges. one beat two horses the other beat the "usuals" . the only way to know is a race. its chancy for RA. zenyatta has age, experience and stamina but the way belmont is playing, speed is king right now. plus, theres got to be more horses. its a joke and not even serious when a grade 1 gets 3. its still free money to finish behind her. they could not get at least 4?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

show up and lose and would lose horse of the year

versus dont show up and its a lock to win horse of the year. It means something to JJ, he stated that repeatedly with Curlin.

You think if Rachel Alexandra doesn't beat Zenyatta or win a Breeders' Cup race she's a lock to win HOTY?

She is going to need to beat Zenyatta if she's not gonna show up in the BC in order to win HOTY. Especially if Zenyatta faces males and Moss is obviously willing to do whatever's necessary to win HOTY.

NT

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

You think if Rachel Alexandra doesn't beat Zenyatta or win a Breeders' Cup race she's a lock to win HOTY?

She is going to need to beat Zenyatta if she's not gonna show up in the BC in order to win HOTY. Especially if Zenyatta faces males and Moss is obviously willing to do whatever's necessary to win HOTY.

NT

RA is america's darling, she is a media buzz, deservingly so, and she is a lock as long as she keeps beating up the 3 year olds and avoids losing to Zenyatta. The only way I see it becoming a problem is if Zenyatta wins against males, and better males then MTB.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

You think if Rachel Alexandra doesn't beat Zenyatta or win a Breeders' Cup race she's a lock to win HOTY?

She is going to need to beat Zenyatta if she's not gonna show up in the BC in order to win HOTY. Especially if Zenyatta faces males and Moss is obviously willing to do whatever's necessary to win HOTY.

NT

its laughable that Moss says he'll do everything necessary for the HOTY... I mean look what she's done during her career already! Other than going to Oaklawn she's never been out of Cali and beat up on horses that are equal calibar to the one's Rachel is beating by 20.. (aka dogs).

I think the only chance Zenyatta is HOY (imo) is if she beats the boys (which she wont run against) in the BC Classic... or beats the boys in a different race AND beats Rachel.

Cause at this point I dont see how any 3yo colt could beat Rachel in the Haskell or Travers... she's just so much faster than anything in America right now. If Rachel wins the Travers or Haskell she could not race the rest of the year... or lose twice & still get HOY.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

its laughable that Moss says he'll do everything necessary for the HOTY... I mean look what she's done during her career already! Other than going to Oaklawn she's never been out of Cali and beat up on horses that are equal calibar to the one's Rachel is beating by 20.. (aka dogs).

I think the only chance Zenyatta is HOY (imo) is if she beats the boys (which she wont run against) in the BC Classic... or beats the boys in a different race AND beats Rachel.

Cause at this point I dont see how any 3yo colt could beat Rachel in the Haskell or Travers... she's just so much faster than anything in America right now. If Rachel wins the Travers or Haskell she could not race the rest of the year... or lose twice & still get HOY.

The smart move would be if Jackson came out today and said Rachel will run in the Haskell, Travers, and the Beldame if all goes well. That would put all the pressure on the Moss's to ship out for the Beldame. If they chose not to and Zenyatta won the BC Classic then Rachel could still win HOY. The longer Jackson waits to commit to a race that Zenyatta could ship out for the more sympathy there will be for the connections opting to stay in California. If they know right now the Beldame is the spot they could meet and they don't show up they will lost a lot of voters for HOY even if Zenyatta wins the Classic.

[randallscott35]

I know as race fans we can't seem to help these types of comparisons but I wish we could just appreciate how great they both are.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

its laughable that Moss says he'll do everything necessary for the HOTY... I mean look what she's done during her career already! Other than going to Oaklawn she's never been out of Cali and beat up on horses that are equal calibar to the one's Rachel is beating by 20.. (aka dogs).

I think the only chance Zenyatta is HOY (imo) is if she beats the boys (which she wont run against) in the BC Classic... or beats the boys in a different race AND beats Rachel.

Cause at this point I dont see how any 3yo colt could beat Rachel in the Haskell or Travers... she's just so much faster than anything in America right now. If Rachel wins the Travers or Haskell she could not race the rest of the year... or lose twice & still get HOY.

To say the 2 horses that ran against Rachel Saturday are equal caliber to Ginger Punch, Cocoa Beach, Hystericalady is quite a ways out there. Rachel's the fastest 3 yr old out there, but let's keep it in perspective. She beat Mine That Bird and Musket Man by a length. At this point to say either of those two is much more than a nice horse would be a stretch. Rachel's had a much better year than Zenyatta to this point. That's about all I'll say.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

The smart move would be if Jackson came out today and said Rachel will run in the Haskell, Travers, and the Beldame if all goes well. That would put all the pressure on the Moss's to ship out for the Beldame. If they chose not to and Zenyatta won the BC Classic then Rachel could still win HOY. The longer Jackson waits to commit to a race that Zenyatta could ship out for the more sympathy there will be for the connections opting to stay in California. If they know right now the Beldame is the spot they could meet and they don't show up they will lost a lot of voters for HOY even if Zenyatta wins the Classic.

that would be a good idea.

I also just dont think Zenyatta is fast enough or good enough to win the classic.. After last year's success the Euro's are going to send some real race horses over here for the 2nd year the dirt classic is going to be run on a turf equivalent. Zenyatta would be lucky to hit the board.

Her only chance is to beat Rachel in a race on dirt and beat the boys in the Goodwood or something.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

its laughable that Moss says he'll do everything necessary for the HOTY... I mean look what she's done during her career already! Other than going to Oaklawn she's never been out of Cali and beat up on horses that are equal calibar to the one's Rachel is beating by 20.. (aka dogs).

I think the only chance Zenyatta is HOY (imo) is if she beats the boys (which she wont run against) in the BC Classic... or beats the boys in a different race AND beats Rachel.

Cause at this point I dont see how any 3yo colt could beat Rachel in the Haskell or Travers... she's just so much faster than anything in America right now. If Rachel wins the Travers or Haskell she could not race the rest of the year... or lose twice & still get HOY.

Moss didn't say specifically that he'd do anything but he did make a comment about how they need to try different things. I really have a feeling that Shirreffs has been calling the shots and Moss has just gone along for the ride. Shirreffs still sounds uneasy about going to NY because of the detention barn.

NT

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

To say the 2 horses that ran against Rachel Saturday are equal caliber to Ginger Punch, Cocoa Beach, Hystericalady is quite a ways out there. Rachel's the fastest 3 yr old out there, but let's keep it in perspective. She beat Mine That Bird and Musket Man by a length. At this point to say either of those two is much more than a nice horse would be a stretch. Rachel's had a much better year than Zenyatta to this point. That's about all I'll say.

she put away all the speed in the Preakness and still beat the closers in a race that set up perfect for MTB and Musket Man. on a track that you can clearly see, especially now after she just rolled over belmont, that she didnt handle Pimlico the same as Belmont and Churchill. After her race Saturday it became obvious.

Ginger Punch was okay.. nothing too special... After watching her few wins at Saratoga is snail like fasion she was nothing more than okay... prolly no better than Musket Man/MTB.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

that would be a good idea.

I also just dont think Zenyatta is fast enough or good enough to win the classic.. After last year's success the Euro's are going to send some real race horses over here for the 2nd year the dirt classic is going to be run on a turf equivalent. Zenyatta would be lucky to hit the board.

Her only chance is to beat Rachel in a race on dirt and beat the boys in the Goodwood or something.

This is the typical figure perspective. She's not fast enough? Based on what? And why are the Euro's faster? Do you really think, given her performance over 11 races, that she wouldn't have been competitive in last year's Classic? She's ****in collapsed ELEVEN races. That's 11 races where she came from DEAD LAST (2nd last in OP). These are races that had multiple moves, middle moves, didn't have middle moves, and just about any other combo you might see. You really think that she wouldn't have rolled over a field in a race that collapsed due to multiple moves like last year's Classic?
Do you have any idea how unprecedented what this horse has done is? Even Forego lost on days when the setup went against him. This horse dictates setups --- it's her way all the time.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

This is the typical figure perspective. She's not fast enough? Based on what? And why are the Euro's faster? Do you really think, given her performance over 11 races, that she wouldn't have been competitive in last year's Classic? She's ****in collapsed ELEVEN races. That's 11 races where she came from DEAD LAST (2nd last in OP). These are races that had multiple moves, middle moves, didn't have middle moves, and just about any other combo you might see. You really think that she wouldn't have rolled over a field in a race that collapsed due to multiple moves like last year's Classic?
Do you have any idea how unprecedented what this horse has done is? Even Forego lost on days when the setup went against him. This horse dictates setups --- it's her way all the time.

I think she ran AWESOME in last years distaff... prolly her 2nd best race behind her real dirt win. With saying that I think she would have ran 2nd in last years classic... which would have still been an incredible achievement.

She's a spectacular filly who I'd like to see run against some actual competition. The only way she does that is running against boys or Rachel.

I'd bet against her with two fists in the Classic & against Rachel... but I hope she actually does it and proves me wrong because her career has been BORING save a couple races.

Winning from dead last is a great feat.. but come on.. do it against some other fast horses PLEASE!

[tector]

Camp Zenyatta had a plan for HOY--make a token trip out-of-state again (which, no fault of theirs, had to be scratched), beat up on a bunch of tin cans in-state thereafter, and take the BC Distaff (as I still call it) on home field. If they could keep her together, it would have worked, unless some 3YO freaked.

And a 3YO has freaked. Worse, it is a filly that has now offered up three historical performances in a row, in big showcase races. And she is threatening to do more. If she were to do the Haskell or Travers, or--heaven help her-- both, it would be a ridiculous accomplishment. The sentiment for her would be overwhelming for HOY, and deservedly so. Zenyatta would have to come out and face her, BC be damned, to keep her HOY shot alive. The writers are going to reward the daring-do of RA if she pulls off a couple of more historical performances. People like that stuff. More boring stakes races on the California poly circuit you can get any weekend.

Zenyatta's only other alternative would be to start stepping out herself--but they've already said no to the Pacific Classic, opting for the Clement Hirsch. Here's a bulletin: nobody outside of California really cares about the Clement Hirsch--it is just more of the same, in year when a filly is doing things that definitely are NOT the same. Maybe going to the Goodwood might work. Certainly the BC Classic would do the trick. But unless RA falters, then Zenyatta & Co. MUST call an audible of some kind, or risk having an undefeated twice champion who couldn't make HOY.