5/21: Belmont ($37k C/O)

[Kasept]

Caught the late P4 at Belmont Wednesday where once again the quad demonstrated its' penchant for rewarding value-seekers. Three obvious favorites marched home in the last third of the card after one well-priced winner (10-1 Gamblin Fever) started the sequence. As it happened, I thought Paulino Ortiz' Gamblin Fever (ML 12-1) was a terrific play, and I made him the top choice in the race as a 'Best Value'. That one 'clever' opinion was tripped the $455.50 return which was about 33% above the parlay.

But if I had been truly clever, this could have been a spot for a very big payday, and I missed it. Given my affection for an overlay like Gamblin Fever, it would certainly have been a good spot to 'press' in the P4 play by using him with a narrow group of likely winners the rest of the way, or at least in the 6th-8th Pick 3... Because make no mistake, Pinckney Hill and Flying Dixie in the 7th and 8th were two rock solid favorite types and overwhelming 'likely' winners. The P3 starting in the 6th and ending with them paid a tremendous $190.75, and while I had nice W-PL money on $22 Gamblin Fever, a $20 straight P3 with him and the next two would have obviously been worth $3,800.

My mentality is generally to 'live' with a live multi-race ticket while pressing within the race via W-PL bets and/or exotics, but I recognized immediately when Pinckney Hill won easily, that I had missed a big chance for a memorable payday. Anyway, just some random post-raceday thoughts... As you may have heard in the call today from "Lou from NY", having a good view of the races means you need to get paid. Hope you did well! P6 carryover to attack Thursday with another set of fun races from P.J. Campo.

Do need to take a moment to convey sadness over the horrible incident before the 5th race Wednesday when Mr. Jerkens' City On Line dropped Jose Lezcano and ran into the Belmont paddock to collide with the Secretariat statue. The City Zip 4yo owned by Our Stromboli Farm had to be destroyed.


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 9f-T (P6, P3, DD)

NOTE: #13 Riptide (7-2) very dangerous if somehow drawing in..

Most Likely: #4 Flying Dismount 2-1 WON
Best Value: #8 Youbethecan 6-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Yazamaan 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Indymine 12-1 3rd


5th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

SCR: #4 & #6

Most Likely: #2 Crema d'Oro 5-2 WON
Best Value: #3 Super Child 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Rocker Mom 6-1 6th


6th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Reeley Misbehaving 8-5 WON
Best Value: #1 Caterina's Terms 15-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Love for a Price 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Picnic Rock 5-1 8th


7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #11 Quisom 15-1 8th
Most Likely: #4 Dame Ellen 6-1 WON
Next Best: #1 (POE) Candlemaker 3-1 10th
Super Add: #5 America's Dreaming 10-1 4th


8th: ALW/N2L, 3+, 9f (DD)

Albertrani, who's been sending them out particularly ready for months, gave Unbridled's Heart an appropriate 11 weeks after the gut-wrencher comeback beat he took at the hands of his own barnmate (!) Ea. Ea has subsequently gone on to place in the $500k Charles Town Classic and Gr. III Schaefer. Today's $1,000,000 favorite has everything going his way from a pace standpoint, and while he pretty well has to be singled for budgetary reasons in tough P4/P6 skiens, he 'feels' vulnerable, and Stevil has been announced as a new gelding. Recall as well that the 1 for 14 Zito runner posted that lone tally on his sole try this oval...

Most Likely: #6 Unbridled's Heart 3-5 3rd
Best Value: #1 Stevil 4-1 4th
Next Best: #5 American Dance 5-1 WON


9th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super)

Most Likely: #6 Artistic Talent 5-2 DH-2nd
Best Value: #7 Luck 6-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Fourth Chapter 8-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Toga Tiger 20-1 7th


<$150 P6 Play:

4: 4-5-8
5: 2-3
6: 2
7: 1-4-11
8: 6
9: 5-6-7-9

3x2x1x3x1x4 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-4-5
7: 1-4-5
8: 6
9: 2-3-5-6-7-9

4x3x1x6 = $72


Good luck!
Steve