5/21: Belmont ($37k C/O)
 

Caught the late P4 at Belmont Wednesday where once again the quad demonstrated its' penchant for rewarding value-seekers. Three obvious favorites marched home in the last third of the card after one well-priced winner (10-1 Gamblin Fever) started the sequence. As it happened, I thought Paulino Ortiz' Gamblin Fever (ML 12-1) was a terrific play, and I made him the top choice in the race as a 'Best Value'. That one 'clever' opinion was tripped the $455.50 return which was about 33% above the parlay.

But if I had been truly clever, this could have been a spot for a very big payday, and I missed it. Given my affection for an overlay like Gamblin Fever, it would certainly have been a good spot to 'press' in the P4 play by using him with a narrow group of likely winners the rest of the way, or at least in the 6th-8th Pick 3... Because make no mistake, Pinckney Hill and Flying Dixie in the 7th and 8th were two rock solid favorite types and overwhelming 'likely' winners. The P3 starting in the 6th and ending with them paid a tremendous $190.75, and while I had nice W-PL money on $22 Gamblin Fever, a $20 straight P3 with him and the next two would have obviously been worth $3,800.

My mentality is generally to 'live' with a live multi-race ticket while pressing within the race via W-PL bets and/or exotics, but I recognized immediately when Pinckney Hill won easily, that I had missed a big chance for a memorable payday. Anyway, just some random post-raceday thoughts... As you may have heard in the call today from "Lou from NY", having a good view of the races means you need to get paid. Hope you did well! P6 carryover to attack Thursday with another set of fun races from P.J. Campo.

Do need to take a moment to convey sadness over the horrible incident before the 5th race Wednesday when Mr. Jerkens' City On Line dropped Jose Lezcano and ran into the Belmont paddock to collide with the Secretariat statue. The City Zip 4yo owned by Our Stromboli Farm had to be destroyed.


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 9f-T (P6, P3, DD)

NOTE: #13 Riptide (7-2) very dangerous if somehow drawing in..

Most Likely: #4 Flying Dismount 2-1 WON
Best Value: #8 Youbethecan 6-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Yazamaan 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Indymine 12-1 3rd


5th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

SCR: #4 & #6

Most Likely: #2 Crema d'Oro 5-2 WON
Best Value: #3 Super Child 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Rocker Mom 6-1 6th


6th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Reeley Misbehaving 8-5 WON
Best Value: #1 Caterina's Terms 15-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Love for a Price 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Picnic Rock 5-1 8th


7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #11 Quisom 15-1 8th
Most Likely: #4 Dame Ellen 6-1 WON
Next Best: #1 (POE) Candlemaker 3-1 10th
Super Add: #5 America's Dreaming 10-1 4th


8th: ALW/N2L, 3+, 9f (DD)

Albertrani, who's been sending them out particularly ready for months, gave Unbridled's Heart an appropriate 11 weeks after the gut-wrencher comeback beat he took at the hands of his own barnmate (!) Ea. Ea has subsequently gone on to place in the $500k Charles Town Classic and Gr. III Schaefer. Today's $1,000,000 favorite has everything going his way from a pace standpoint, and while he pretty well has to be singled for budgetary reasons in tough P4/P6 skiens, he 'feels' vulnerable, and Stevil has been announced as a new gelding. Recall as well that the 1 for 14 Zito runner posted that lone tally on his sole try this oval...

Most Likely: #6 Unbridled's Heart 3-5 3rd
Best Value: #1 Stevil 4-1 4th
Next Best: #5 American Dance 5-1 WON


9th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super)

Most Likely: #6 Artistic Talent 5-2 DH-2nd
Best Value: #7 Luck 6-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Fourth Chapter 8-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Toga Tiger 20-1 7th


<$150 P6 Play:

4: 4-5-8
5: 2-3
6: 2
7: 1-4-11
8: 6
9: 5-6-7-9

3x2x1x3x1x4 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-4-5
7: 1-4-5
8: 6
9: 2-3-5-6-7-9

4x3x1x6 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

steve nice work yesterday

in the 6th today watch out for picnic rock - clement/margah , payson park works could be ready , dangerous not to inculde in multi's

Speaking of the 6th, got word that LADY VALIANT is an early scratch.

The Clement is an interesting filly and very well can be used. She's a sister to the dam of Imperial Council (Jaramar Rain, who was Picnic Rock's dam's best runner to date). And from a trainer angle point of view, Clement has won twice debuting at 9f on lawn in the last 5 years, from 12 tries, and most interestingly, they were with 12-1 and 13-1 runners that ran low 80's Beyers.

steve also doesn't rajiv get some of his better horses to ride?

I'm also going to put together a PK 4 for today, and the Clement horse is hard to toss. One horse I'm interested in as a longshot is the 3 horse, Grace's Valentine. She obviously showed little as a 2-year old, but is bred to love the turf. If she grew up at all over the winter, Albertrani might have her ready to put forth a good effort off the layoff.

Also interested in that horse but not going to bet it to win.

Gee, with the kind of clients Clement somehow manages to retain, aren't all of his horses 'better horses'?

That kind of trainer-rider thing doesn't attract my attention. Maragh is a very good jock who has established himself near the top of the colony, and any call he gets from a leading barn will likely be a capable horse.

I don't know if Albertrani will have her ready, and I'm not a pedigree expert, but unless she's crooked as a "?", she's a helluva broodmare prospect... A Rahy mare out of a Roberto mare.

BELMONT SCR'S

1

1A Manitoba Miss Early
2 Cagey Girl Early
3 Point Me to It Early


2

3 Electra's Ego Early NO SHOW or TRIFECTA
5 Shes Spoken Four Early


3

7 Franklin Delano Early


4

1A Bright Illusion Early
11 Wonderous Day Early
12 Ecru Egret Early
13 Riptide (ARG) Early
14 Spicy Vow Early
15 Silver Express Early


5

4 Lofty Early NO SUPERFECTA
6 Officer Flirt Early


6

1A Refinery Fire Early
8 Lady Valiant Early
12 Devilishameye Early
13 Playful Majesty Early
14 Driven by Royalty Early


7

1A Esperanza d'Oro Early
7 Seminole Lass Early
12 Miss Dartmouth Early


8

3 Warm Shower Early


9

1A Sumwhrovrtherainbw Early
2B Eightyfive S Early
10 Delta Weekend Early
11 Skip Away Belle Early
12 Quiet Mover Early

and some of his rats are better rats :eek: :eek:

Franny Freud also looks interesting in race #2

margah aboard for terranova could be a nice price behind some of the others

Note that STEVIL has been announced as a new gelding!

May want to entertain a little 7th-8th DD cover play if you're singled to Unbridled's Heart... STEVIL was the only horse in the area code anyway, and if Unbridled's Heart should falter, he's the piece-picker-upper. And we already know Stevil's lone victory is over this surface.

Maybe doubles of various amounts? 1-4-5-6-8-11 with 1... Just thinkin' out loud..

I am aboard the Byk P4 Train once again today !

I figured it was only a matter of time before he had more wins than balls.

NT

Interesting. I agree that Stevil was the only other horse I considered in the 8th. With some other key horses being scratched in the other PK4 legs, it's tempting to include him, knowing how much it could juice up the payoffs if Unbridled Heart finishes just short again.

The one that interested me as a very outside upset chance was Warm Shower, but I guess they figured the spot was too tough. Angel Penna has really been on fire this year so who am I to question? My concern with Stevil would be he'd need some pace to soften up Unbridled's Heart... and unless JV sends American Dance, I don't think there's any in here.

:tro: I laughed, hard

Belmont Lake PK4
 

Race 6
2- Reely Misbehaving 8-5 could be vulnerable as a deep closer in a fairly paceless race
4- Love For a Price 4-1 Can't igore 5/6 turf ITM
5 - Picnic Rock 5-1 - Can 't toss Clement firster
6 - Me Mine Maria 10-1 - Only including because I already committed to going deep in this race. Trainer seems to excel in spots like this.
3 - Grace's Valentine 15-1 Bred to love the lawn; if she's matured at all over the past 6 months, she could be a player. Expect her to be close to the lead early. Albertrani's barn continues to do well.

Race 7
4 Dame Ellen 6-1 expect much shorter price with scratch of Seminole
Lass
1 Candle Maker 3-1 Ditto...
These 2 should both get ideal setups with an expected honest pace up front.

Race 8
6 -Unbridled Heart 3-5 Captain Obvious
1 - Stevil 4-1 Unlikely to beat the favorite, but a few things to like, including first-time gelding which Steve noted above.

Race 9
6 - Artistic Talent 5-2 Looks like possible lone speed.
3 - Queen of the Scene 9-2 Why not? If top choice falters, she's as likely as anyone else.

5x2x2x2 = $40 for $1
Good luck everyone.

I gave this guy a shot even before the Balls Off angle as Unbridle's Heart may need one after being off 78 days.

Well, upon further inspection, this is a rare property as a broodmare prospect..

Grace's Valentine is out of Roberto's Plenty of Grace, the Galbraith-bred, Darby Dan-campaigned, John Veitch-trained 5X Graded Stakes winner. She has been more productive producing producers than runners so far. She got Bonnie Byerly (dam of Diabolical) and Propriety (dam of Grace Anatomy).

She herself is out of Wings of Grace, a daughter of Key to the Mint produced from a mating with Far Beyond, a daughter of.. Nijinsky! In addition to Plenty of Grace, Wings of Grace produced.. Soaring Softly.

Obviously, no matter how slow she looks so far, I doubt we'll see Grace's Valentine in a claimer any time soon...