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#1
09-27-2008, 02:54 AM
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9/27: Belmont, OSA, Turfway, More..
As big a day of racing as I think I can recall.. Belmont, Santa Anita and Turfway headline the action with their respective historic fall stakes cards, but that's just the foundation of what should be a remarkable afternoon and evening of race wagering and viewing... Stars galore, especially if you appreciate the fair sex in the game, as well as excellent matchups in venues like Philadelphia, Hawthorne, Calder, et al. And if state bred racing is your predilection, cards at Delaware, Thistledown and Remington are well worth your time and attention. Below find my thoughts on as many of the stakes and sequences as I could handle... Enjoy the day!
ALL TIMES EASTERN; ALL PRE-SCRATCHES PHILADELPHIA PARK 8th (3:22pm): Turf Amazon H., F&M-3+, 5f-T (P3, DD) Most Likely: #4 SMART AND FANCY 5-2: A. Dutrow 5yo rarely misfires.. 2nd Best Value: #8 Classify 9-2: Winchell homebred stalker fits race flow.. 7th Next Best: #7 Beau Dare 7-2 3rd Exotics Use: #9 Ahvee's Destiny 10-1 6th 9th (3:50pm): Gallant Bob H., 3yo, 6f Most Likely: #7 Lantana Mob 4-1: Trombetta has had time; Expect best.. 3rd Next Best: #8 Desert Key 3-1: Missed by little in both Spa sprint standards.. 2nd Best Value: #10 Devereaux 9-2 8th Exotics Use: #2 Rollers 12-1 WON $1 Exacta (2-8) Paid $23.00 $1 Trifecta (2-8-7) Paid $89.00 BELMONT PARK Weather and course conditions obviously a factor with forecast iffy.. 6th (3:40pm): 70th Beldame (Gr. I), F&M-3+, 9f (P6, P3, DD) Most Likely: #1 Ginger Punch 4-5: Wearing down? This is her 'BC Distaff'.. 2nd Next Best: #5 SCR Best Value: #3 Cocoa Beach 5-1: Price attractive on miss with upside.. WON $1 Exacta (3-1) Paid $6.30 7th (4:13pm): 31st Flower Bowl (Gr. I), F&M-3+, 10f-IT (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #4 Mauralakana 1-1: Am always trying to beat her.. 2nd Best Value: #1 Palmilla 8-1: Glens Falls was best yet; More to come.. 5th Next Best: #3 Dynaforce 7-2 WON Exotics Use: #6 SCR $1 Exacta (3-4) Paid $8.10 $1 Daily Double (3-3) Paid $13.80 8th (4:46pm): 69th Vosburgh (Gr. I), 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #1 Fabulous Strike 5-2: Fastest here, fresh and wet no problem.. 2nd Best Value: #6 Rockerfeller 6-1: Won't get 6-1; Live Oak bay the danger.. 4th Next Best: #3 Lucky Island 2-1: Subs in here for injured Abraaj.. 6th Super Use: #5 Kodial Kowboy 10-1: 3yo into deep water; Boosts exotics.. 3rd 9th (5:19pm): 32nd Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (Gr. I), 3+, 12f-T (P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #7 Strike a Deal 6-1: Finally his turn? Adjusts to any ground.. 4th Most Likely: #3 Dancing Forever 5-2: Less than firm fine with Manhattan winner.. 7th Next Best: #4 Proudinsky 3-1 5th Exotics Use: #8 Precious Passion 10-1 6th 10th (5:52pm): 90th Jockey Club Gold Cup (Gr. I), 3+, 10f (DD, Super) Trust Howard-Farish, and as much as I loved Mambo in Seattle in the Travers, he is a bit of a play-against as we try to make money in exotics. Most Likely: #5 Curlin 3-5: Training well for repeat try, money mark; Fine if wet.. WON Best Value: #4 Wanderin Boy 10-1: 2nd in this Bernadini; Poised for big run.. 2nd Next Best: #3 SCR Exotics Use: #8 Stones River 20-1: There were other spots for this 3yo today.. 6th <$75 P4 Play: 7: 1-3-4 8: 1 9: 3-4-5-6-7-8 10: 5 (3) Main -- 3x1x6x1 = 18 x $2 = $36 Backup -- 3x1x6x1 = $18 11th (6:24pm): NYB-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (Super) Best Value: #5 After Colin 8-1: Note best tries came when wet.. 8th Most Likely: #9 Another Hades 7-2: Spring tries OK; Note '1st Campo' ROI.. 3rd Next Best: #1e Rice entry 3-1 7th Super Add: #4 Look Now 20-1 4th <$150 P6 Play: 6: 1-(5 SCR)-3 7: 1-3-4 8: 1 9: 3-4-5-6-7-8 10: 5 11: 5-9 2x3x1x6x1x2 = 72 x $2 = $144 MONMOUTH PARK 8th (4:06pm): 7th NATC Futurity (R), 2yo-F, 6f Most Likely: #6 Kays and Jays 2-1 2nd Best Value: #2 Trusty Temper 4-1 3rd Next Best: #4 R Betty Graybull 5-2 WON $1 Exacta (4-6) Paid $7.10 $1 Trifecta (4-6-2) Paid $20.30 9th (4:34pm): 7th NATC Futurity, 2yo, 6f (Super) Most Likely: #1 Valiancy 2-1 2nd Next Best: #6 Forty Thieves 3-1 WON Best Value: #5 Wild Proof 4-1 6th $1 Exacta (6-1) Paid $11.30 TURFWAY PARK 6th (3:32pm): 15th KY Cup Juvenile Fillies, 2yo-F, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 Sugar Mom 4-1 WON Best Value: #3 Complicity 8-1 2nd Next Best: #6 Juliet's Spirit 7-2 8th Exotics Use: #1 Bold Union 3-1 4th $1 Exacta (2-3) Paid $32.10 7th (4:03pm): 15th KY Cup Sprint (Gr. III), 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #5 Fatal Bullet 3-1 WON Best Value: #10 No Advantage 12-1 3rd Next Best: #7 Gentleman James 5-1 8th Exotics Use: #9 Silver Sword 12-1 2nd $1 Exacta (5-9) Paid $24.60 $1 Trifecta (5-9-10) Paid $364.10 8th (4:36pm): 15th KY Cup Juvenile (Gr. III), 2yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #4 Retap 5-2 2nd Best Value: #7 West Side Bernie 5-1 WON Next Best: #3 Proud Jefe 2-1 6th Exotics Use: #5 Tar Beach 7-2 5th $1 Exacta (7-4) Paid $10.80 $1 Pick 3 (2-5-7) Paid $42.30 9th (5:09pm): 23rd KY Cup Distaff (Gr. III), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #4 Bear Now 5-2 WON Best Value: #3 Marquee Delivery 5-1 4th Next Best: #6 Maren's Meadow 3-1 7th Exotics Use: #5 Unforgotten 5-1 2nd $1 Exacta (4-5) Paid $18.70 $1 Pick 3 (5-7-4) Paid $27.60 $2 Pick 4 (2-2/5-6/7-4) Paid $197.80 10th (5:43pm): 15th KY Cup Classic, 3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #1 Honest Man 5-2 4th Next Best: #2 Zanjero 9-5 WON Best Value: #3 Extreme Supreme 5-1 2nd $1 Exacta (2-3) Paid $26.00 $1 Pick 3 (7-4-2) Paid $32.20 $1 Pick 4 (2/5-6/7-4-2) Paid $107.30 HAWTHORNE RACE COURSE 7th (5:26pm): Regal Rumor, 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, Super) Most Likely: #3 Palanka City 5-2 WON Best Value: #5 Paddy Wak Wakie 12-1 5th Next Best: #8 Lune Rouge 4-1 2nd Super Add: #7 Whataclassybroad 8-1 3rd $1 Exacta (3-8) Paid $7.60 $1 Trifecta (3-8-7) Paid $49.60 8th (5:54pm): 72nd Hawthorne Gold Cup (Gr. II), 3+, 10f (P3, Super) Most Likely: #5 Fairbanks 5-2 WON Best Value: #6 Barcola 5-1 6th Next Best: #4 Magna Graduate 3-1 2nd Super Add: #1 Wayzata Bay 6-1 3rd $1 Exacta (5-4) Paid $5.10 $1 Trifecta (5-4-1) Paid $16.40 9th (6:23pm): 26th Carey Mem. H. (Gr. III), 3+, 1m-T (DD, Super) Most Likely: #1e Nixon entry 9-2 (Only one to go) 2nd Best Value: #5 Galantas 5-1 3rd-DQ'd Next Best: #7 Vanquisher 4-1 6th Super Add: #10 Tom Archdeacon 10-1 4th 10th (6:51pm): ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (Super Hi 5) Most Likely: #6 Z'bullseye 4-1 5th Best Value: #7 Cuban Missle 15-1 9th Next Best: #9 American Hustler 9-2 3rd Exotics Use: #8 Oatman 8-1 10th Hi 5 Add: #11 Mr. Cooley 8-1 2nd <$75 P4 Play: 7: 3-5 8: 4-5-6 9: 1-5-7 10: 6-7-8-9 2x3x3x4 = $72 OAK TREE AT SANTA ANITA 4th (5:02pm): 40th Clement Hirsch Mem. (Gr. I), 3+, 10f-T (P3, DD) Most Likely: #7 Spring House 5-2: Horse to beat in career best form.. 4th Best Value: #6 Red Giant 3-1: Was ready off break in big Fourstardave.. WON Next Best: #5 Out of Control 2-1: Back doing what he does best.. 2nd $1 Exacta (6-5) Paid $9.40 5th (5:33pm): 16th Lady's Secret (Gr. I), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD) Most Likely: #3 Hysterical Lady 6-5: Mare gets pace edge on the superfilly.. 2nd Next Best: #4 Zenyatta 4-5: Unbeaten starlet will have to change up.. WON Best Value: #2 SCR 6th (6:08pm): 24th Ancient Title (Gr. I), 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #1 Street Boss 8-5: Respect Cali division leader but is hardly a lock.. 2nd Next Best: #4 Idiot Proof 5-2: Never out of exacta at three quarters.. 5th Best Value: #7 Esperamos 12-1: Price a plus; Ward 4yo threat if back to best.. 6th Super Add: #6 In Summation 3-1: Clement vet is honest, likes synthetics.. 3rd 7th (6:42pm): ALW/N1X, 3yo, 6.5f-DHT (P5, P3, DD, Super) Impossible race placed in the middle of everything except the Late P4.. Most Likely: #2 Victor's Cry 9-2 4th Best Value: #10 Cadillac 10-1 2nd Next Best: #6 Banner Lodge 7-2 WON Super Add: #1 Swiss Ski 12-1 5th $1 Exacta (6-10) Paid $27.00 8th (7:14pm): 40th Oak Leaf (Gr. I), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 Stardom Bound 5-2: Hope DMR Deb winner not injured.. WON Best Value: #1 Will O Way 10-1: Half to terrific stakes router Willow O Wisp.. 6th Next Best: #7 Empressive Lady 7-2: Inherits fave role if Paasch miss a no go.. 11th Super Add: #6 Magic Roberta 20-1: Lobo maiden is serious board threat.. 8th 9th (7:45pm): 32nd Yellow Ribbon (Gr. I), 3+, 10f-T (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #10 Wait a While 7-5: Demolished this event two years ago.. WON Best Value: #8 Marzelline 20-1: May be ready to step into limelight.. 4th Next Best: #4 Black Mamba 5-2: NZer yet to miss board since emigrating.. 3rd Exotics Use: #3 I Can See 12-1: Time since last which was best yet.. 6th 10th (8:15pm): 27th Goodwood (Gr. I), 3+, 9f (DD, Super) Perhaps the most intriguing event, and best betting race, anywhere all day. Wonderful lineup of serious and solid horses with variety of form, credentials and styles.. A treat.. Most Likely: #8 Tiago 6-1: Title defender in on similar trajectory; Ignore at your own risk.. 2nd Best Value: #9 Spirit One 8-1: To be overlooked? Besides Million, note 4th to Duke in FR Grp. I.. 5th Next Best: #6 Albertus Maximus 6-1: A 'now' horse; Brilliant last, poised for better.. 3rd Super Adds: #5 SCR; #10 Mostacolli Mort 15-1 9th 11th (8:45pm): MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (Super High 5) Most Likely: #10 Donttelmewhattodo 3-1 10th Best Value: #3 Hot Summer Breeze 5-1 2nd Next Best: #9 Casino Gold 4-1 WON Exotics Use: #2 Catana Perez 15-1 9th Hi 5 Add: #12 Love Apple 6-1 4th $1 Exacta (9-3) Paid $23.00 <$50 P4 Play: 8: 1-2-7 9: 10 10: 1-5-6-7-8-9-10-11 11: 3-10 3x1x8x2 = $48 Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 09-28-2008 at 09:20 AM. 
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#2
09-27-2008, 06:12 AM
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If only there was a 40 claimer restricted to 3YOs earlier on the card.
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Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
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#3
09-27-2008, 06:22 AM
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Steve
I thought the Belmont Late pick 4 started with race 7 not 8. See a clip from the equibase program from Nyra.com. Belmont Park - September 27th, 2008 - Race 7 Estimated Local Post Time: 4:13PM Distance: One And One Fourth Miles Purse: $600,000 Surface: Inner turf | INNER TURF FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. By invitation only with no subscription fees. The purse to be divided 60% to the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 5% to fourth, 3% to fifth and 2% divided equally among remaining finishers. Exacta, Trifecta, Pick 3 Races (7-9), Pick 4 Races (7-10), Daily Double Wagers
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"Be who you are and say what you feel, because those that matter don't mind, and those that mind, dont matter." Theodore Seuss Geisel "Dr. Seuss"
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#4
09-27-2008, 06:55 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#5
09-27-2008, 06:55 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#6
09-27-2008, 08:58 AM
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Belmont pk.4 (7-10)
2/3/4 - 1/3 - 3/5/6 - 5 kinda like; Communique, Summer Patriot & Ravel  as solid price horses underneath.
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"Change can be good, but constant change shows no direction" http://www.hickoryhillhoff.blogspot.com/
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#7
09-27-2008, 09:22 AM
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Timber Reserve has SCR'd from the Gold Cup
Will go Friday in the Meadowlands Cup instead.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#10
09-27-2008, 03:27 PM
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Geez! Ken D!
Absolutely stangles Maulakana outta the gate, she wanted to go with the 3, would it have killed him to keep her a little closer, then let her make her run? Dynaforce may not have got beat today, just question the ride on the fav by Kent D.
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#12
09-27-2008, 04:09 PM
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Whoo whoo.. I had Black Seventeen
 Nice $49.00 payoff  Sorry could'nt help myself 
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#14
09-27-2008, 04:15 PM
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 I'll take the $50 buck tho 
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#16
09-27-2008, 04:31 PM
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Grand Couturier was visually impressive.
I know it's difficult to compare given the difference in turf conditions, but with the way he handled Proudinsky, what does that tell us about how Big Brown would compare against actual Grade 1 caliber turf horses?
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#19
09-27-2008, 04:34 PM
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I need Grand Courturier taken down to win
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