9/27: Belmont, OSA, Turfway, More..
 

As big a day of racing as I think I can recall.. Belmont, Santa Anita and Turfway headline the action with their respective historic fall stakes cards, but that's just the foundation of what should be a remarkable afternoon and evening of race wagering and viewing... Stars galore, especially if you appreciate the fair sex in the game, as well as excellent matchups in venues like Philadelphia, Hawthorne, Calder, et al. And if state bred racing is your predilection, cards at Delaware, Thistledown and Remington are well worth your time and attention. Below find my thoughts on as many of the stakes and sequences as I could handle... Enjoy the day!


ALL TIMES EASTERN; ALL PRE-SCRATCHES


PHILADELPHIA PARK


8th (3:22pm): Turf Amazon H., F&M-3+, 5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 SMART AND FANCY 5-2: A. Dutrow 5yo rarely misfires.. 2nd
Best Value: #8 Classify 9-2: Winchell homebred stalker fits race flow.. 7th
Next Best: #7 Beau Dare 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Ahvee's Destiny 10-1 6th


9th (3:50pm): Gallant Bob H., 3yo, 6f

Most Likely: #7 Lantana Mob 4-1: Trombetta has had time; Expect best.. 3rd
Next Best: #8 Desert Key 3-1: Missed by little in both Spa sprint standards.. 2nd
Best Value: #10 Devereaux 9-2 8th
Exotics Use: #2 Rollers 12-1 WON

$1 Exacta (2-8) Paid $23.00
$1 Trifecta (2-8-7) Paid $89.00



BELMONT PARK

Weather and course conditions obviously a factor with forecast iffy..

6th (3:40pm): 70th Beldame (Gr. I), F&M-3+, 9f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Ginger Punch 4-5: Wearing down? This is her 'BC Distaff'.. 2nd
Next Best: #5 SCR
Best Value: #3 Cocoa Beach 5-1: Price attractive on miss with upside.. WON

$1 Exacta (3-1) Paid $6.30


7th (4:13pm): 31st Flower Bowl (Gr. I), F&M-3+, 10f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Mauralakana 1-1: Am always trying to beat her.. 2nd
Best Value: #1 Palmilla 8-1: Glens Falls was best yet; More to come.. 5th
Next Best: #3 Dynaforce 7-2 WON
Exotics Use: #6 SCR

$1 Exacta (3-4) Paid $8.10
$1 Daily Double (3-3) Paid $13.80


8th (4:46pm): 69th Vosburgh (Gr. I), 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Fabulous Strike 5-2: Fastest here, fresh and wet no problem.. 2nd
Best Value: #6 Rockerfeller 6-1: Won't get 6-1; Live Oak bay the danger.. 4th
Next Best: #3 Lucky Island 2-1: Subs in here for injured Abraaj.. 6th
Super Use: #5 Kodial Kowboy 10-1: 3yo into deep water; Boosts exotics.. 3rd


9th (5:19pm): 32nd Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (Gr. I), 3+, 12f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Strike a Deal 6-1: Finally his turn? Adjusts to any ground.. 4th
Most Likely: #3 Dancing Forever 5-2: Less than firm fine with Manhattan winner.. 7th
Next Best: #4 Proudinsky 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Precious Passion 10-1 6th


10th (5:52pm): 90th Jockey Club Gold Cup (Gr. I), 3+, 10f (DD, Super)

Trust Howard-Farish, and as much as I loved Mambo in Seattle in the Travers, he is a bit of a play-against as we try to make money in exotics.

Most Likely: #5 Curlin 3-5: Training well for repeat try, money mark; Fine if wet.. WON
Best Value: #4 Wanderin Boy 10-1: 2nd in this Bernadini; Poised for big run.. 2nd
Next Best: #3 SCR
Exotics Use: #8 Stones River 20-1: There were other spots for this 3yo today.. 6th


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-3-4
8: 1
9: 3-4-5-6-7-8
10: 5 (3)

Main -- 3x1x6x1 = 18 x $2 = $36
Backup -- 3x1x6x1 = $18


11th (6:24pm): NYB-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (Super)

Best Value: #5 After Colin 8-1: Note best tries came when wet.. 8th
Most Likely: #9 Another Hades 7-2: Spring tries OK; Note '1st Campo' ROI.. 3rd
Next Best: #1e Rice entry 3-1 7th
Super Add: #4 Look Now 20-1 4th


<$150 P6 Play:

6: 1-(5 SCR)-3
7: 1-3-4
8: 1
9: 3-4-5-6-7-8
10: 5
11: 5-9

2x3x1x6x1x2 = 72 x $2 = $144



MONMOUTH PARK


8th (4:06pm): 7th NATC Futurity (R), 2yo-F, 6f

Most Likely: #6 Kays and Jays 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Trusty Temper 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 R Betty Graybull 5-2 WON

$1 Exacta (4-6) Paid $7.10
$1 Trifecta (4-6-2) Paid $20.30


9th (4:34pm): 7th NATC Futurity, 2yo, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #1 Valiancy 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Forty Thieves 3-1 WON
Best Value: #5 Wild Proof 4-1 6th

$1 Exacta (6-1) Paid $11.30



TURFWAY PARK


6th (3:32pm): 15th KY Cup Juvenile Fillies, 2yo-F, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Sugar Mom 4-1 WON
Best Value: #3 Complicity 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Juliet's Spirit 7-2 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Bold Union 3-1 4th

$1 Exacta (2-3) Paid $32.10


7th (4:03pm): 15th KY Cup Sprint (Gr. III), 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Fatal Bullet 3-1 WON
Best Value: #10 No Advantage 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Gentleman James 5-1 8th
Exotics Use: #9 Silver Sword 12-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (5-9) Paid $24.60
$1 Trifecta (5-9-10) Paid $364.10


8th (4:36pm): 15th KY Cup Juvenile (Gr. III), 2yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Retap 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 West Side Bernie 5-1 WON
Next Best: #3 Proud Jefe 2-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Tar Beach 7-2 5th

$1 Exacta (7-4) Paid $10.80
$1 Pick 3 (2-5-7) Paid $42.30


9th (5:09pm): 23rd KY Cup Distaff (Gr. III), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Bear Now 5-2 WON
Best Value: #3 Marquee Delivery 5-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Maren's Meadow 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Unforgotten 5-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (4-5) Paid $18.70
$1 Pick 3 (5-7-4) Paid $27.60
$2 Pick 4 (2-2/5-6/7-4) Paid $197.80


10th (5:43pm): 15th KY Cup Classic, 3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Honest Man 5-2 4th
Next Best: #2 Zanjero 9-5 WON
Best Value: #3 Extreme Supreme 5-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (2-3) Paid $26.00
$1 Pick 3 (7-4-2) Paid $32.20
$1 Pick 4 (2/5-6/7-4-2) Paid $107.30



HAWTHORNE RACE COURSE


7th (5:26pm): Regal Rumor, 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Palanka City 5-2 WON
Best Value: #5 Paddy Wak Wakie 12-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Lune Rouge 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Whataclassybroad 8-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (3-8) Paid $7.60
$1 Trifecta (3-8-7) Paid $49.60


8th (5:54pm): 72nd Hawthorne Gold Cup (Gr. II), 3+, 10f (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Fairbanks 5-2 WON
Best Value: #6 Barcola 5-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Magna Graduate 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Wayzata Bay 6-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (5-4) Paid $5.10
$1 Trifecta (5-4-1) Paid $16.40


9th (6:23pm): 26th Carey Mem. H. (Gr. III), 3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1e Nixon entry 9-2 (Only one to go) 2nd
Best Value: #5 Galantas 5-1 3rd-DQ'd
Next Best: #7 Vanquisher 4-1 6th
Super Add: #10 Tom Archdeacon 10-1 4th


10th (6:51pm): ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (Super Hi 5)

Most Likely: #6 Z'bullseye 4-1 5th
Best Value: #7 Cuban Missle 15-1 9th
Next Best: #9 American Hustler 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Oatman 8-1 10th
Hi 5 Add: #11 Mr. Cooley 8-1 2nd


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-5
8: 4-5-6
9: 1-5-7
10: 6-7-8-9

2x3x3x4 = $72



OAK TREE AT SANTA ANITA


4th (5:02pm): 40th Clement Hirsch Mem. (Gr. I), 3+, 10f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Spring House 5-2: Horse to beat in career best form.. 4th
Best Value: #6 Red Giant 3-1: Was ready off break in big Fourstardave.. WON
Next Best: #5 Out of Control 2-1: Back doing what he does best.. 2nd

$1 Exacta (6-5) Paid $9.40


5th (5:33pm): 16th Lady's Secret (Gr. I), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Hysterical Lady 6-5: Mare gets pace edge on the superfilly.. 2nd
Next Best: #4 Zenyatta 4-5: Unbeaten starlet will have to change up.. WON
Best Value: #2 SCR


6th (6:08pm): 24th Ancient Title (Gr. I), 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Street Boss 8-5: Respect Cali division leader but is hardly a lock.. 2nd
Next Best: #4 Idiot Proof 5-2: Never out of exacta at three quarters.. 5th
Best Value: #7 Esperamos 12-1: Price a plus; Ward 4yo threat if back to best.. 6th
Super Add: #6 In Summation 3-1: Clement vet is honest, likes synthetics.. 3rd


7th (6:42pm): ALW/N1X, 3yo, 6.5f-DHT (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Impossible race placed in the middle of everything except the Late P4..

Most Likely: #2 Victor's Cry 9-2 4th
Best Value: #10 Cadillac 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Banner Lodge 7-2 WON
Super Add: #1 Swiss Ski 12-1 5th

$1 Exacta (6-10) Paid $27.00


8th (7:14pm): 40th Oak Leaf (Gr. I), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Stardom Bound 5-2: Hope DMR Deb winner not injured.. WON
Best Value: #1 Will O Way 10-1: Half to terrific stakes router Willow O Wisp.. 6th
Next Best: #7 Empressive Lady 7-2: Inherits fave role if Paasch miss a no go.. 11th
Super Add: #6 Magic Roberta 20-1: Lobo maiden is serious board threat.. 8th


9th (7:45pm): 32nd Yellow Ribbon (Gr. I), 3+, 10f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Wait a While 7-5: Demolished this event two years ago.. WON
Best Value: #8 Marzelline 20-1: May be ready to step into limelight.. 4th
Next Best: #4 Black Mamba 5-2: NZer yet to miss board since emigrating.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 I Can See 12-1: Time since last which was best yet.. 6th


10th (8:15pm): 27th Goodwood (Gr. I), 3+, 9f (DD, Super)

Perhaps the most intriguing event, and best betting race, anywhere all day. Wonderful lineup of serious and solid horses with variety of form, credentials and styles.. A treat..

Most Likely: #8 Tiago 6-1: Title defender in on similar trajectory; Ignore at your own risk.. 2nd
Best Value: #9 Spirit One 8-1: To be overlooked? Besides Million, note 4th to Duke in FR Grp. I.. 5th
Next Best: #6 Albertus Maximus 6-1: A 'now' horse; Brilliant last, poised for better.. 3rd
Super Adds: #5 SCR; #10 Mostacolli Mort 15-1 9th


11th (8:45pm): MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (Super High 5)

Most Likely: #10 Donttelmewhattodo 3-1 10th
Best Value: #3 Hot Summer Breeze 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Casino Gold 4-1 WON
Exotics Use: #2 Catana Perez 15-1 9th
Hi 5 Add: #12 Love Apple 6-1 4th

$1 Exacta (9-3) Paid $23.00


<$50 P4 Play:

8: 1-2-7
9: 10
10: 1-5-6-7-8-9-10-11
11: 3-10

3x1x8x2 = $48


Good luck!
Steve

If only there was a 40 claimer restricted to 3YOs earlier on the card.

Steve

I thought the Belmont Late pick 4 started with race 7 not 8. See a clip from the equibase program from Nyra.com.

Belmont Park - September 27th, 2008 - Race 7
Estimated Local Post Time: 4:13PM
Distance: One And One Fourth Miles Purse: $600,000 Surface: Inner turf | INNER TURF FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. By invitation only with no subscription fees. The purse to be divided 60% to the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 5% to fourth, 3% to fifth and 2% divided equally among remaining finishers.
Exacta, Trifecta, Pick 3 Races (7-9), Pick 4 Races (7-10), Daily Double Wagers

You are right! Fixed it.. Thanks so much! G/L today HH...

Belmont pk.4 (7-10)

2/3/4 - 1/3 - 3/5/6 - 5

kinda like; Communique, Summer Patriot & Ravel :eek: as solid price horses underneath.

Timber Reserve has SCR'd from the Gold Cup

Will go Friday in the Meadowlands Cup instead.

$2 pk 3

6- 1,3
7- 3,4
8- 1,3,6

$3 PK3

6- 1
7- 3,4
8- 1,3,6

$2 PK6

6- 1
7- 3,4
8- 1,3
9- 3,4,5,6
10- 5
11- 1

Good Luck!

Pick 4
 

4
1-6
3-4-5-6-7-8
4-5-8

$36
Good Luck All!

Geez! Ken D!
 

Absolutely stangles Maulakana outta the gate, she wanted to go with the 3, would it have killed him to keep her a little closer, then let her make her run? Dynaforce may not have got beat today, just question the ride on the fav by Kent D.

Did not have time to post before 7th, barely got bet in and shut out on backups, but played $3 pk4's:

7- 3,4
8- 1,3,6
9- 3,4,5,6
10- 5

7- 3,4
8- 1,3
9- 3,6,7
10- 5

Good Luck!

Whoo whoo.. I had Black Seventeen :)
Nice $49.00 payoff :tro:

Sorry could'nt help myself :D

Very nice call Laura!:$:

Thanks.. too bad I singled the one in my pick 4 :(
I'll take the $50 buck tho :p

Late Pick 3 stab!
 

3-4-5-6-7-8
4-5-8
9
$18
Good Luck All!

Grand Couturier was visually impressive.

I know it's difficult to compare given the difference in turf conditions, but with the way he handled Proudinsky, what does that tell us about how Big Brown would compare against actual Grade 1 caliber turf horses?

Stewards made the right call there, no way Interpretation beats Grand Couturier today, bump or not.

Holy Cow!
 

What a performance by Grand Couturier 8 length win in the Joe Hirsh Turf Classic!