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#1
04-25-2008, 06:14 PM
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Hollywood 4/25
Friday Night at the Wood...love it.
Staring to handicap the care here. What kind of biases have there been in the first few days? Speed holding? Closers rule? Fair? Thanks. Picks coming. 
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#2
04-25-2008, 06:30 PM
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Big scratch of Noble Courage in the 2nd who looked like a single to me in the early pick 4. Still looking at the card, it's better than the first 2 days but still not good.
Hollywood Park Spring/Summer Meet – Day 3 Friday, April 25, 2008 First Post: 7:05 PM (PDT) Track: Cushion Turf: Firm – rail at 0 feet $150,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 – Presented by TVG Races 6-9 PROGRAM CHANGES Race 1: No Program Changes Race 2: Scratch - #4 Noble Courage Overweight - #1+2 Race 3: No Program Changes Race 4: No Program Changes Race 5: No Program Changes Race 6: Scratch - #11 Trail Mix Scratch - #13 Attack Jack Scratch - #14 My Friend Luis Scratch - #15 Hit and Hope Race 7: No Program Changes Race 8: Scratch - #9 Nordic Wind Race 9: Scratch - #6 Square Genius
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#3
04-25-2008, 07:19 PM
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It is actually a pretty tough card to figure. The late pk4 looks impossible, but the early looks decent.
1) #6 Lady Disdain 5-2 #7 Stress Free 3-1 #4 La Mandonna 12-1 value play, she has been catching tougher fields #3 Drastic Tactics 8-1 3rd off long break, speed to be dangerous 2) #1 Three Park Night 5-1 #3 Rough Idea 12-1 a GREAT price #5 Gato Viejo 10-1 Another GREAT price #7 El Supremo 5-2 Not a great price but this one is a fighter #6 Master Plan 4-1 Question mark (have to use all these in pk4) 3) #1 Liberian Fighter 2-1 Standout #3 Comoros 5-1 Beautiful horse, should improve #5 Brian the Bold 5-2 Hate this hanger…think it’s a closer, its not. If it is to win at this level this race sets up, but I cant use. 4) #10 Lost Paradise 9-5 Not a sure thing, lacks speed #1 Toppler 6-1 has speed, removing shades #5 Scotty Jones 5-1 might get best trip #6 Baby Gotham 15-1 I know, Knapp but not without a little shot Pk4 1)4,6,7 2)1,3,5,6,7 3)1,3 4)1,5,10 $90
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#4
04-25-2008, 07:20 PM
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cluess picks
bold is for horses used in the pick 3 that I never hit or possible flat money if odds are 10-1 or greater.
Race 1 3 Drastic Tactics 8/1 4 La Mandonna 12/1 6 Lady Disdain 5/2 7 Stress Free 3/1 Race 2 1 Three Park Night 5/1 3 Rough Idea 12/1 5 Gato Viejo 10/1 7 El Supremo 5/2 Race 3 5 Brian The Bold 5/2 4 South Coast 4/1 6 Lucky Honey 6/1 Race 4 1 Toppler 6/1 5 Scotty Jones 5/1 10 Lost Paradise 9/5 4 Dry Man's Gulch 6/1 Race 5 1 Highland Torree 7/2 4 Heaven On Hold 5/1 6 Magical Victory 5/1 7 Sailor's Sister 3/1 Race 6 3 Congo King 5/1 5 Gray Black N White 7/2 6 Scottish Diamond 6/1 12 Blue Torpedo 8/1 Race 7 1 Ready Maid 6/1 6 Kentucky Waltz 6/1 Race 8 4 Wine On The Porch 8/1 7 Nevada Worrier 12/1 8 Sky Cape 5/2 Race 9 2 E Bradley 4/1 3 Perfect Cast 5/2 10 Spellbinding 9/2 9 Party Punch 6/1 5 Dumaani Came Home 9/2
__________________
ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ
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#5
04-25-2008, 07:23 PM
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Quote:
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#9
04-25-2008, 07:44 PM
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Nope, I am aware of the risk I am taking. If he wins then I lose...that is the way the game works. I have never understood the thinking you are speaking of...I dont like the horse so why should I bet it? Out of fear? I mean, I guess if you really dont have a clue on a race then that makes sense but I like the others. I also realize there is a real chance it could win. I will take the $18 I am saving and play something else I like. I dont know, maybe I am stupid.
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#10
04-25-2008, 07:49 PM
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Early Pick 4
R1: A) 6 Lady Disdain - Likely winner B) 4 La Mandonna - Finally back to routing, should be close to the front B) 5 Kachina Dream - Hasn't routed in a while but 2 for 5 at distance R2: A) 7 El Supremo - Would single as W2W threat but can't trust Greely with anything A) 6 Master Plan - Training great R3: A) 1 Liberian Freighter - Monster race last out, wins if repeats but serious bounce candidate A) 4 South Coast - Needs to avoid speed duel with 1 A) 5 Brian The Bold - Picks up the pieces R4: Spreading wide, chance for a price A) 10 Lost Paradise - Numbers to win and drops in class, something fishy though A) 1 Toppler - Blinkers off, very dangerous A) 5 Scotty Jones - 0 for 16 but will be angry all night if wins and don't include A) 4 Dry Man's Gulch - Salder off the claim B) 7 Captain's Turn - Leave Rosales off at your own risk B) 3 Oakland Avenue - Gut feeling he runs well 4A for $2 and backups for $1. $132 total GL
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#16
04-25-2008, 08:29 PM
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Lets tackle this thing tonight. Sent my better half out with her friends tonight, just relaxin with some Hoegaardens, watching the Sixers put a thumpin on the Pistons.
I hope this price holds up on Zee Topper. Will play him straight up and key with Drastic Tactics, Lady Disdain, and Stress Free in exactas and tri's.
__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel
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#17
04-25-2008, 08:35 PM
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Early Pick 4
2, 6, 7/1, 7/1, 3, 4/5, 7, 10 $54
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#19
04-25-2008, 08:39 PM
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Quote:
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#20
04-25-2008, 08:41 PM
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Blue Torpedo in the 6th will be the key to my night. Will play him heavy (if near m/l odds) and key in ex and tris, pick 3 and 4's...
Loved his game effort last out and might relish the slight cutback.
__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel
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