Hollywood 4/25
 

Friday Night at the Wood...love it.

Staring to handicap the care here. What kind of biases have there been in the first few days? Speed holding? Closers rule? Fair?

Thanks. Picks coming.

Big scratch of Noble Courage in the 2nd who looked like a single to me in the early pick 4. Still looking at the card, it's better than the first 2 days but still not good.


Hollywood Park
Spring/Summer Meet – Day 3
Friday, April 25, 2008
First Post: 7:05 PM (PDT)

Track: Cushion
Turf: Firm – rail at 0 feet

$150,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 – Presented by TVG
Races 6-9

PROGRAM CHANGES

Race 1:
No Program Changes

Race 2:
Scratch - #4 Noble Courage
Overweight - #1+2

Race 3:
No Program Changes

Race 4:
No Program Changes

Race 5:
No Program Changes

Race 6:
Scratch - #11 Trail Mix
Scratch - #13 Attack Jack
Scratch - #14 My Friend Luis
Scratch - #15 Hit and Hope

Race 7:
No Program Changes

Race 8:
Scratch - #9 Nordic Wind

Race 9:
Scratch - #6 Square Genius

It is actually a pretty tough card to figure. The late pk4 looks impossible, but the early looks decent.
1)
#6 Lady Disdain 5-2
#7 Stress Free 3-1
#4 La Mandonna 12-1 value play, she has been catching tougher fields
#3 Drastic Tactics 8-1 3rd off long break, speed to be dangerous

2)
#1 Three Park Night 5-1
#3 Rough Idea 12-1 a GREAT price
#5 Gato Viejo 10-1 Another GREAT price
#7 El Supremo 5-2 Not a great price but this one is a fighter
#6 Master Plan 4-1 Question mark
(have to use all these in pk4)

3)
#1 Liberian Fighter 2-1 Standout
#3 Comoros 5-1 Beautiful horse, should improve
#5 Brian the Bold 5-2 Hate this hanger…think it’s a closer, its not. If it is to win at this level this race sets up, but I cant use.

4)
#10 Lost Paradise 9-5 Not a sure thing, lacks speed
#1 Toppler 6-1 has speed, removing shades
#5 Scotty Jones 5-1 might get best trip
#6 Baby Gotham 15-1 I know, Knapp but not without a little shot


Pk4
1)4,6,7
2)1,3,5,6,7
3)1,3
4)1,5,10
$90

cluess picks
 

bold is for horses used in the pick 3 that I never hit or possible flat money if odds are 10-1 or greater.

Race 1

3 Drastic Tactics 8/1
4 La Mandonna 12/1
6 Lady Disdain 5/2
7 Stress Free 3/1

Race 2

1 Three Park Night 5/1
3 Rough Idea 12/1
5 Gato Viejo 10/1
7 El Supremo 5/2

Race 3

5 Brian The Bold 5/2
4 South Coast 4/1
6 Lucky Honey 6/1

Race 4

1 Toppler 6/1
5 Scotty Jones 5/1
10 Lost Paradise 9/5
4 Dry Man's Gulch 6/1

Race 5

1 Highland Torree 7/2
4 Heaven On Hold 5/1
6 Magical Victory 5/1
7 Sailor's Sister 3/1

Race 6

3 Congo King 5/1
5 Gray Black N White 7/2
6 Scottish Diamond 6/1
12 Blue Torpedo 8/1

Race 7

1 Ready Maid 6/1
6 Kentucky Waltz 6/1

Race 8

4 Wine On The Porch 8/1
7 Nevada Worrier 12/1
8 Sky Cape 5/2

Race 9

2 E Bradley 4/1
3 Perfect Cast 5/2
10 Spellbinding 9/2
9 Party Punch 6/1
5 Dumaani Came Home 9/2

The 2nd race is a 6 horse field and you plan on playing five in the race. Why not add the 6th horse and turn the bet into a pick three?

wow, we are pretty close hope that is a good sign.

I will tell you to watch out for the #3 Mr Keppel in the 8th....think it is a runner.

cause I dont want to spend the $18 on a horse I dont like

If you lose the wager because Magic Mike wins the 2nd you'll regret it.

Nope, I am aware of the risk I am taking. If he wins then I lose...that is the way the game works. I have never understood the thinking you are speaking of...I dont like the horse so why should I bet it? Out of fear? I mean, I guess if you really dont have a clue on a race then that makes sense but I like the others. I also realize there is a real chance it could win. I will take the $18 I am saving and play something else I like. I dont know, maybe I am stupid.

Early Pick 4

R1:
A) 6 Lady Disdain - Likely winner
B) 4 La Mandonna - Finally back to routing, should be close to the front
B) 5 Kachina Dream - Hasn't routed in a while but 2 for 5 at distance

R2:
A) 7 El Supremo - Would single as W2W threat but can't trust Greely with anything
A) 6 Master Plan - Training great

R3:
A) 1 Liberian Freighter - Monster race last out, wins if repeats but serious bounce candidate
A) 4 South Coast - Needs to avoid speed duel with 1
A) 5 Brian The Bold - Picks up the pieces

R4: Spreading wide, chance for a price
A) 10 Lost Paradise - Numbers to win and drops in class, something fishy though
A) 1 Toppler - Blinkers off, very dangerous
A) 5 Scotty Jones - 0 for 16 but will be angry all night if wins and don't include
A) 4 Dry Man's Gulch - Salder off the claim
B) 7 Captain's Turn - Leave Rosales off at your own risk
B) 3 Oakland Avenue - Gut feeling he runs well

4A for $2 and backups for $1. $132 total

GL

aight you guys drug me into this one, late night at the 'Wood
i gots half a case of miller high life light, the champagne of beers and printing off the PP's as we speek

-bt-

Welcome to the party BT....I love it.

Wow the return of Dwango in the 6th off the 3 year layoff

is it me or doesn't the early pk4 look chalky?

-bt-

Race 1 $5 Pick 3
1)4,6
2)7
3)1,5

$20

Lets tackle this thing tonight. Sent my better half out with her friends tonight, just relaxin with some Hoegaardens, watching the Sixers put a thumpin on the Pistons.

I hope this price holds up on Zee Topper. Will play him straight up and key with Drastic Tactics, Lady Disdain, and Stress Free in exactas and tri's.

Early Pick 4
2, 6, 7/1, 7/1, 3, 4/5, 7, 10
$54

Coach in the houussee

Tasty stuff. I assume this is the beer, and not some type of slang for hookers.

Blue Torpedo in the 6th will be the key to my night. Will play him heavy (if near m/l odds) and key in ex and tris, pick 3 and 4's...

Loved his game effort last out and might relish the slight cutback.