2/26 (GP): Fountain of Youth, Hutcheson, Davona Dale (G2's)

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by paulo537

I think Crossbow would have been far from hopeless in here.

He certainly would have been a better play than the stretchout Trippi at 4/5.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Forget for a second about how ridiculously you are overrating his supposed first turn trouble.....what you seem to be saying is that if, once again, he had gotten another perfect trip, he probably would have won, if Soldat hadn't been in the race.

You do realize how ridiculous this is....right?

Lets say this race took place four weeks after the Remsen...

Put him in post 1 - put Soldat outside. Stick a hopeless longshot who is going to be used like a rabbit and ultimately eased in between them.

Make To Honor And Serve the one who is sent leaving the gate - and make him the one who is floating Soldat out on a fast pace through the first turn.

What's the result going to be? Soldat is probably stopping to a walk. Of course he can't win in that situation.

In terms of a Kentucky Derby chance - I gave To Honor And Serve a very slight edge over some horse who just won a race at Golden Gate - and has never even run on dirt before.

He has a lot to prove ... I suppose it was realistic to think he could overcome his positioning into the first turn - which I think you're under-rating - and just go off and run a 110 Beyer at 9fs in his return?

[blackthroatedwind]

I didn't say Soldat didn't have a better trip, and perhaps the race came up fast, though I am somewhat dubious as to how fast, and I still maintain his performance was poorer than some will say because of how dressed up he was going in. He failed the first time everything didn't go his way. That is a bad sign.

He could still win the Derby.....but that depends on Uncle Mo. I'm just not a big fan.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Lets say this race took place four weeks after the Remsen...

Put him in post 1 - put Soldat outside. Stick a hopeless longshot who is going to be used like a rabbit and ultimately eased in between them.

Make To Honor And Serve the one who is sent leaving the gate - and make him the one who is floating Soldat out on a fast pace through the first turn.

What's the result going to be? Soldat is probably stopping to a walk. Of course he can't win in that situation.

In terms of a Kentucky Derby chance - I gave To Honor And Serve a very slight edge over some horse who just won a race at Golden Gate - and has never even run on dirt before.

He has a lot to prove ... I suppose it was realistic to think he could overcome his positioning into the first turn - which I think you're under-rating - and just go off and run a 110 Beyer at 9fs in his return?

My opinion on this is that your Facebook avatar is much better than the Brett Favre one.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I didn't say Soldat didn't have a better trip, and perhaps the race came up fast, though I am somewhat dubious as to how fast, and I still maintain his performance was poorer than some will say because of how dressed up he was going in. He failed the first time everything didn't go his way. That is a bad sign.

He could still win the Derby.....but that depends on Uncle Mo. I'm just not a big fan.

I would guess the figure to be somewhere in the 106-to-109 range. It was about 20 points faster than the alw race.

The pace was about 30 points faster than the 9f alw race pace.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You are sort of suggesting it is some exact science where a horse has a certain amount to give and his trainer can sort of dole it out at will. That is not the case.

I didn't mean to suggest that exactly, which is why I said in my post:
"I'm somewhat skeptical of trainers ability to control when a horse is "cranked.""

I just sometimes wonder if, when it comes to horses on the "derby trail" with the necessary graded stakes earnings in hand, trainers do try....whatever is they try....to get their horses to "peak" on Derby day. I do remain skeptical about how successful they would be at doing this, but it at least seems more probable to me with a horse in To Honor and Serve's position than is typically the case when people use the "it was just a prep race" excuse.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

My opinion on this is that your Facebook avatar is much better than the Brett Favre one.

I suppose.

By the way - had To Honor And Serve won the race - Jerry Brown might be calling him the fastest 3yo ever... or at least fastest pre-Derby 3yo.

The horse who won the ALW that went 20 Beyer points slower ran a 1 last out. Soldat ran a Negative 1.50 last out - once you factor in the weight and ground loss on there scale - I think it's a pretty safe bet To Honor And Serve ran a new lifetime top today. Had he won today - I can't even imagine how strong the hype would be from those guys.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I would guess the figure to be somewhere in the 106-to-109 range. It was about 20 points faster than the alw race.

The pace was about 30 points faster than the 9f alw race pace.

And that makes sense to you as a single variant situation?

I don't have a good answer, by the way, but I'm skeptical at face value.

[Travis Stone]

I thought To Honor And Serve ran like junk today. There wasn't much about his race I could give him a pass on, sans the outside draw/wide early. But even then, he's supposed to finish better. He was done and out with about 3 1/2 furlongs to go.

On the other hand, he does have room to improve going forward, and yes, it was his first start of the year. That said, I was never really impressed with his Remsen, and will sit on the "exposed" opposed to "needed the race" side of the coin for now.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

And that makes sense to you as a single variant situation?

I think it does. If anyone thinks it doesn't I'd like to hear there take why.

[hockey2315]

Arch Traveler - 76
San Pablo - 79
R Heat Lightning - 98
Flashpoint - 102
Soldat - 96

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Arch Traveler - 76
San Pablo - 79
R Heat Lightning - 98
Flashpoint - 102
Soldat - 96

Arch Traveler ran a 7 point new career worst - and went backwards 14 points off of his last race in victory?

Even Gourmet Dinner went backwards! Everything in the only two route races today all went backwards!

[hockey2315]

I'm with you that they don't look right.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I'm with you that they don't look right.

I know there are only two races to work with - but for the life of me - I can't ever remember being that far in disagreement!

Sheckleford's 9f GP alw win got an 89 Beyer... and here's how the top 3 finishers from that race performed in the Fountain of Youth...

Winner: Sheckleford - 5th by 23.5 lengths

2nd Place: Casper's Touch - 7th by 35.5 lengths

3rd Place: El Grayling - pressed the pace and was eased through the stretch after hopelessly beaten.

[Indian Charlie]

I think THAS got exposed for the horse I suspected he was all along.

A slow speed horse that needs a soft pace to run his race.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I don't know what's worse - that they let PG 1985 make the Beyers today for the two 2-turn routes at Gulfstream .... or the person on Facebook saying that Soldat "upset" To Honor And Serve ... how does a 1.40-to-1 favorite "upset" a 1.70-to-1 second choice?

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Thinking this was anything other than a very disappointing effort by To Honor and Serve feels like seeing what you want to see as opposed to what you really saw. For the first time he hasn't had an absolutely perfect trip, and he didn't exactly set the world on fire, and his trip was far from bad. How good is Gourmet Dinner....and he buried him. Yes, he had a better trip, but To Honor and Serve is supposed to be a superior horse to him....and it wasn't close today.

Sorry, but it seems to me that horses that are going to the Derby off two preps are likely a lot more cranked up than people seem to want to believe. To Honor and Serve packed it in after seven furlongs today. After today I am inclined to go to the " horse he was dressed up by two straight dream trips " side of the fence.

I think this is true. When horses used to have 3-4 prep races before the Derby, I think it was more often the case where they would be well below 100% for their first out. When they are only going to prep twice, there's much less room for error and I think they are wound tighter for the first out than they used to be. It used to be that trainers would not mind losing a race or two in preps if it helped them get their horse just where they wanted for the big one. Not so anymore. Because horses race so infrequently now and because so much emphasis is placed on their record, each loss is now magnified to a level that is pretty ridiculous. With that in mind, trainers are usually trying to win EVERY race now and have their horses tuned accordingly.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I don't know what's worse - that they let PG 1985 make the Beyers today for the two 2-turn routes at Gulfstream .... or the person on Facebook saying that Soldat "upset" To Honor And Serve ... how does a 1.40-to-1 favorite "upset" a 1.70-to-1 second choice?

You see this all the time in College hoops when some unranked, or lesser ranked, team beats a highly ranked team, and the newspapers call it an " upset " even though the winner was favored.

[Danzig]

from bloodhorse:


It will also be on to the Florida Derby for To Honor and Serve. "(Velazquez) liked his race," trainer Bill Mott said. "He said (To Honor and Serve) did everything he asked until he got to the quarter pole, and then he said he got a little flat. I can imagine he might have needed the race. If he got beat I thought he might carry (Velazquez) a little more into the stretch.
"It looks like he needed the race. John compared him to the horse he rode and won the Davona Dale (R Heat Lightning). The first time down here she was a little flat and she came back and ran big today.”

[The Indomitable DrugS]

A typically useless jockey and trainer quote.

I think the R Heat Lightning comparison he makes was because she was 4 wide chasing a fast pace in her prior start. He wasn't on Devil May Care last year for her 3yo debut at FG - I think Castellano was - but that was the same type of thing. DMC chased a very fast pace four wide through the 1st turn - and when she couldn't go with inside horse on the far turn she hit the reset button and fired on the airbreaks... I think she was like 5th by 12 in that race.

Mine That Bird was 4th or 5th in the Sunland Derby when wide and chasing a very fast pace. Sure, his Derby was a fluke - but he just missed in the Preakness - and a lot of people thought he was best in the Belmont.

Archarcharch was hung wide against a fast pace in the Smarty Jones when he faded. There's hundreds of big form reversals I can think of that come from that type of races. A lot of times though - the big form reversal only happens if horses can comfortably relax early on next time out.

It's the exact opposite in slow paced races. You want to be a wide presser in those type of races...especially with inferior horses inside of you. You have complete and utter control of the race from there.

That's why I don't even bother watching a race until I feel comfortable that I can gauge the pace. The same wide pressing position that can be an absolute dream spot in a slow paced race - is a horrid spot in a fast paced race.

What's interesting about this years Fountain of Youth is that there are mixed signals on how fast the pace actually was - it was 30 points faster than the alw pace - but very oddly it graded out a lot slower than I expected on my par chart. And even the final time figure has question marks. It looks cut and dry in the 106-to-109 range to me.