2/26 (GP): Fountain of Youth, Hutcheson, Davona Dale (G2's)

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Even if To Honor And Serve was fully cranked and had preps in him for this - The other speeds were herding there way out going into the first turn - and he got caught miserably wide around that first turn on what was a solid early pace being set by a very sharp horse.

When he was struggling to go with a perfectly positioned Soldat - and a good closing sprinter like Gourmet Dinner was positioned so perfectly and about to come by him on the turn- it's when horses can just hit the reset button and plain quit...even fit ones going 9fs off a layoff.

To me - that was the exact race I wanted to see if I was going to like anything about To Honor And Serve going forward.

If Soldat wasn't involved in that race - To Honor And Serve gets to control the pace rating just off that silly Maker longshot ... Dominguez's hand is forced to move early on Gourmet Dinner - he is sent along to confront a fresh To Honor And Serve on the turn - and he gets shrugged off in the stretch. To Honor And Serve wins the race and does it by putting late margins on the field...and his reputation grows.

Forget for a second about how ridiculously you are overrating his supposed first turn trouble.....what you seem to be saying is that if, once again, he had gotten another perfect trip, he probably would have won, if Soldat hadn't been in the race.

You do realize how ridiculous this is....right?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Forget for a second about how ridiculously you are overrating his supposed first turn trouble.....what you seem to be saying is that if, once again, he had gotten another perfect trip, he probably would have won, if Soldat hadn't been in the race.

You do realize how ridiculous this is....right?

Lets say this race took place four weeks after the Remsen...

Put him in post 1 - put Soldat outside. Stick a hopeless longshot who is going to be used like a rabbit and ultimately eased in between them.

Make To Honor And Serve the one who is sent leaving the gate - and make him the one who is floating Soldat out on a fast pace through the first turn.

What's the result going to be? Soldat is probably stopping to a walk. Of course he can't win in that situation.

In terms of a Kentucky Derby chance - I gave To Honor And Serve a very slight edge over some horse who just won a race at Golden Gate - and has never even run on dirt before.

He has a lot to prove ... I suppose it was realistic to think he could overcome his positioning into the first turn - which I think you're under-rating - and just go off and run a 110 Beyer at 9fs in his return?

[blackthroatedwind]

I didn't say Soldat didn't have a better trip, and perhaps the race came up fast, though I am somewhat dubious as to how fast, and I still maintain his performance was poorer than some will say because of how dressed up he was going in. He failed the first time everything didn't go his way. That is a bad sign.

He could still win the Derby.....but that depends on Uncle Mo. I'm just not a big fan.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I didn't say Soldat didn't have a better trip, and perhaps the race came up fast, though I am somewhat dubious as to how fast, and I still maintain his performance was poorer than some will say because of how dressed up he was going in. He failed the first time everything didn't go his way. That is a bad sign.

He could still win the Derby.....but that depends on Uncle Mo. I'm just not a big fan.

I would guess the figure to be somewhere in the 106-to-109 range. It was about 20 points faster than the alw race.

The pace was about 30 points faster than the 9f alw race pace.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I would guess the figure to be somewhere in the 106-to-109 range. It was about 20 points faster than the alw race.

The pace was about 30 points faster than the 9f alw race pace.

And that makes sense to you as a single variant situation?

I don't have a good answer, by the way, but I'm skeptical at face value.

[Travis Stone]

I thought To Honor And Serve ran like junk today. There wasn't much about his race I could give him a pass on, sans the outside draw/wide early. But even then, he's supposed to finish better. He was done and out with about 3 1/2 furlongs to go.

On the other hand, he does have room to improve going forward, and yes, it was his first start of the year. That said, I was never really impressed with his Remsen, and will sit on the "exposed" opposed to "needed the race" side of the coin for now.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

And that makes sense to you as a single variant situation?

I think it does. If anyone thinks it doesn't I'd like to hear there take why.

[hockey2315]

Arch Traveler - 76
San Pablo - 79
R Heat Lightning - 98
Flashpoint - 102
Soldat - 96

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Lets say this race took place four weeks after the Remsen...

Put him in post 1 - put Soldat outside. Stick a hopeless longshot who is going to be used like a rabbit and ultimately eased in between them.

Make To Honor And Serve the one who is sent leaving the gate - and make him the one who is floating Soldat out on a fast pace through the first turn.

What's the result going to be? Soldat is probably stopping to a walk. Of course he can't win in that situation.

In terms of a Kentucky Derby chance - I gave To Honor And Serve a very slight edge over some horse who just won a race at Golden Gate - and has never even run on dirt before.

He has a lot to prove ... I suppose it was realistic to think he could overcome his positioning into the first turn - which I think you're under-rating - and just go off and run a 110 Beyer at 9fs in his return?

My opinion on this is that your Facebook avatar is much better than the Brett Favre one.