Two at Toga (2023)

[theguarantee]

I’m biased so I guess I’ll defer to others and I do agree with the sentiment but this feels like about a 3 on the 1-10 scale of what Irad can usually get away with. Obviously would’ve never bet him at 7/5 and didn’t think even with the Irad factor that was possible in here. They really need to figure out how to be even mildly consistent with these calls.

[jms62]

The "it didn't cost a placing" rule/argument really needs to end. If the ride was reckless and put another rider in risk of injury then it should be a DQ no matter where the horse finishes.

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Best Bet: Race 7 - #5 Eyes on Target 7/2 - The chaotic nature of this field is the only reason I'm willing to go ahead and bet on Irad/Maker/Dubb...I tried to make a case for Tartini cutting back but ultimately don't think he's good enough. Similar for the rest of the field and I circled back to thinking not only is Eyes on Target a likely winner, but I think he'll actually be a slight overlay in this field.

Best Value: Race 9 - #4 Pioneering Spirit 4/1 - Simply couldn't come up with anything too clever on the card today and this is another where I think the bulky field will lead to an overlay...I love the progress this one has made of late, ability to settle, he's athletic enough to work out a nice trip and love the way he kicked home last out.

Eyes on Target was tons the best but DQ'd only cost me a couple grand in multis...Pioneering Spirit was also tons the best...both horses were bet off the board though.

Wagered: $88.00
Returned: $120.90

Interesting card today but looks pretty tough.

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Eyes on Target was tons the best but DQ'd only cost me a couple grand in multis...Pioneering Spirit was also tons the best...both horses were bet off the board though.

Wagered: $88.00
Returned: $120.90

Interesting card today but looks pretty tough.

Nice call on Pioneering Spirit. I think with more eyes on horse racing, they almost had to DQ Irad that race. It was a dangerous move and could have led to a catastrophic injury to horse or rider. That horse was definitely best though.

You now take the lead with Pioneering Spirit. I’m stuck at:

$88.00 wagered
$111.00 returned

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 9 - #8 Harry Hood 3/1 - Not going to extract any type of great value with this pick but I struggled a bit with today's card and if we get the 3/1 on this guy who has had a series of tough trips in his brief career. I thought the last was pretty good and I like that Chad immediately gets aggressive and spots this one at the right class level.

Best Value: Race 7 - #4 Little Maddy Brown 30/1 - Going off the reservation with this one. Has a right to like the turf and is a hard knocking type, likely too cheap but I wasn't particularly scared of anyone in here. The only previous turf race he had absolutely no chance in a decent field at Saratoga last year going a route. Showed speed and faded badly in the stretch. Again, he's probably badly outclassed today but this is a much more reasonable spot for him.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Going to take a few big swings the next couple days.

Friday picks.

First bet: Race 1 - #9 Love That Bird, 20/1.
Second bet: Race 6 - #7 Asthros, 10/1.

Saturday picks.

First bet: Race 8 - #6 Dean Delivers, 8/1.
Second bet: Race 10 - #3 Hit Show, 6/1.

Wrong Ferraro horse race 1. Ugh.

I had a feeling he brought a good horse to Saratoga. Can’t believe I landed on the wrong one. This game is so damn frustrating.

[jms62]

Don't know what Gaffalione is claiming foul for. He hit with his right hand and lugged way in. The 10 should've claimed foul on him.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Going to take a few big swings the next couple days.

Friday picks.

First bet: Race 1 - #9 Love That Bird, 20/1.
Second bet: Race 6 - #7 Asthros, 10/1.

Saturday picks.

First bet: Race 8 - #6 Dean Delivers, 8/1.
Second bet: Race 10 - #3 Hit Show, 6/1.

Well, I went with the wrong Ferraro as Love That Bird finished last (I think) but his stable mate gutted out a victory at 13/1. A tough miss for me as I liked both based on their workouts. But enough red boarding. I didn’t get to see the 6th race but it doesn’t look like Asthros did much.

$96.00 wagered
$111.00 returned

Clearly I wasn’t thinking clearly when I made the above picks so I’m going to mix it up a little (as much as I like Dean Delivers, I don’t really want to bet against Elite Power or Gunite.)

First bet: Race 3 - #6 Carpe’s Dream, 8/1. I’m not way against the likely favorite #2 Luna Warrior but he’s coming off his first win in 7 starts from the maiden claiming ranks. With Irad aboard, I suspect the #11 will draw a significant amount of interest as well. I don’t love either of those two horses so I started looking elsewhere. Carpe’s Dream will see a significant drop in class as he’s raced only allowance or stakes races since breaking his maiden back in December of 2021. He also gets a jockey upgrade with Lezcano. In my opinion, he needed class relief and is getting it. He’s got a major shot in this one.

Second bet: Race 10 - #3 Hit Show, 6/1. I keep going back to that Derby performance and I was really impressed with it. Saudi Crown is going to jump out to the front and Forte, with the addition of blinkers, may challenge him sooner than otherwise. Hit Show should get a perfect stalking spot behind those two and will get first run at them. Saez now aboard and have to imagine that’s an upgrade over Franco. Forte, Saudi Crown, and Angel of Empire will all take a lot of money so I’m thinking he gets overlooked and will be a nice price.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 7 #6 Drum Roll Please
Best Value: Race 10 #1 Disarm

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Well, I went with the wrong Ferraro as Love That Bird finished last (I think) but his stable mate gutted out a victory at 13/1. A tough miss for me as I liked both based on their workouts. But enough red boarding. I didn’t get to see the 6th race but it doesn’t look like Asthros did much.

$96.00 wagered
$111.00 returned

Clearly I wasn’t thinking clearly when I made the above picks so I’m going to mix it up a little (as much as I like Dean Delivers, I don’t really want to bet against Elite Power or Gunite.)

First bet: Race 3 - #6 Carpe’s Dream, 8/1. I’m not way against the likely favorite #2 Luna Warrior but he’s coming off his first win in 7 starts from the maiden claiming ranks. With Irad aboard, I suspect the #11 will draw a significant amount of interest as well. I don’t love either of those two horses so I started looking elsewhere. Carpe’s Dream will see a significant drop in class as he’s raced only allowance or stakes races since breaking his maiden back in December of 2021. He also gets a jockey upgrade with Lezcano. In my opinion, he needed class relief and is getting it. He’s got a major shot in this one.

Second bet: Race 10 - #3 Hit Show, 6/1. I keep going back to that Derby performance and I was really impressed with it. Saudi Crown is going to jump out to the front and Forte, with the addition of blinkers, may challenge him sooner than otherwise. Hit Show should get a perfect stalking spot behind those two and will get first run at them. Saez now aboard and have to imagine that’s an upgrade over Franco. Forte, Saudi Crown, and Angel of Empire will all take a lot of money so I’m thinking he gets overlooked and will be a nice price.

Carpe’s Dream got boxed in a bit but had no explosiveness when they hit the stretch. Not sure where he finished but somewhere in the 4-7 range. Hit Show didn’t show up. Going into tomorrow with the risk of going into the red.

$104.00 wagered
$111.00 returned

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

They really need to figure out how to be even mildly consistent with these calls.

Revisit

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Revisit

I don’t think there should have been a DQ there but obviously Irad has learned nothing from his DQ the other day. You’re not entitled to the spot you want if someone is there. He thinks he is.

I don’t even know what you can do to punish him because he doesn’t care.

[theguarantee]

I can understand your opinion dahoss, just like I could understand what jms the other day…It’s just the lack of any type of consistency to me in the rulings…doesn’t help that I used 1,4 in that race, ripped them all up and had the 1 in all multis that leg…but my sentiments were made well before that race happened…just another kick in the balls

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

I can understand your opinion dahoss, just like I could understand what jms the other day…It’s just the lack of any type of consistency to me in the rulings…doesn’t help that I used 1,4 in that race, ripped them all up and had the 1 in all multis that leg…but my sentiments were made well before that race happened…just another kick in the balls

It's frustrating I get it. The other day, he obviously cost the horse a placing. I don't think that happened today and that's how I look at it, which could very well be wrong.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

It's frustrating I get it. The other day, he obviously cost the horse a placing. I don't think that happened today and that's how I look at it, which could very well be wrong.

The "Cost the horse a placing" is so open to interpretation. I feel the standard should be did he put another horse/rider in danger.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Carpe’s Dream got boxed in a bit but had no explosiveness when they hit the stretch. Not sure where he finished but somewhere in the 4-7 range. Hit Show didn’t show up. Going into tomorrow with the risk of going into the red.

$104.00 wagered
$111.00 returned

I didn’t get a chance to look too closely at this card. But here are two horses I like:

Race 1 - #2 Golden Ghost, 6/1. I want to take a shot here with a horse that debuted in a stakes sprint race on dirt but clearly has pedigree for turf, particularly turf routes. She took money on debut and my guess is Casse thinks she’s got some talent but needs to figure out where she fits. Expecting that she’ll be above 6/1.

Race 3 - #8 Sedona Red, 8/1. With fairly obscure connections going up against the likes of Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher, expect this one to be a big price. But his most recent dirt performance should win this if he can translate it to turf. He’s one of the few 4 year olds in this race and I always give them extra long looks going against 3 year olds in turf routes. The dam has produced two turf winners. They started him out on turf and now send him back to the grass. He’s got a shot…and I suspect will be over the 8/1 morning line price.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by jms62

The "Cost the horse a placing" is so open to interpretation. I feel the standard should be did he put another horse/rider in danger.

Isn’t that open to interpretation?

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Isn’t that open to interpretation?

Well it is better than we are now which seems that both conditions need to be true.

[moses]

I’m tired of Irad’s antics but I can’t really have sympathy for the two other horses involved here, who appeared to be working together to prevent Forte from getting into open space. At what point in time did we become OK with horses from the same trainer teaming up to impede another horse?

I’ve seen a lot of people saying that’s just race riding. I don’t agree. It’s collusion and what bettor wants to see that? It’s different when we’re talking about running a rabbit to set up a closer, imo. I’ve never liked when Baffert did this with his horses and don’t think we should reward this ‘strategy’ by DQing a clearly better horse unless the foul is extraordinarily egregious.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 4 #2 Liberty Flame 8/1 - Think this one is every bit as likely a winner as the rest in here and believe the public will be gravitating to several others so should get a square price today.

Bet Value: Race 9 #8 Channel Maker 20/1 - Always like Channel Maker when there is some cut in the ground. Clearly you can cut that morning line ~in half with the conditions and Strong Quality scratching. I was interested in trying to get Strong Quality to wire this group so easy pivot to Channel Maker for me in here today.

Good luck.